Trading EUR/USD & Majors, Longer Term

We will be trading the Majors in this thread since my system is set up on all 4.

EUR/USD still has not hit ti's long term target, however, it should soon

Cable has hit first 2 targets at 4270 and 4170 and needs to break 4160 level to hit the long term target of 4060. I said earlier that it would hit sometime this morning and its still on track to do so.

AJ

Pure patience is needed here. If you have the nerve to look down at the lower charts, I am sure you will see a Flag formaton of some kind forming. My stops are set and if they are hit, so be it. Fridays are sometimes unpredictable so you need to be ready to sacrifice some for a little. My profits are locked, however, if we got the distance on these 2, ( EUR/USD 1.2600 ) and ( GBP/USD 1.4060 ) it will be a great end to a great week.

AJ

If the push down starts and I am seeing signs of that now. The my stops will come down even farther.

A lot of people trading the lower charts would be out of these trades by now.

Guess I'll move my posts here then. Hope you're okay with it aj.

Cable making its move and E/U will be right behind it. If they fail to break recent lows I may settle on pulling profits for the week.

AJ

Don't forget that not only is today Friday, as you said "end of the week", but more importantly it is also month-end, so a major double-whammy to be aware of. In and around the London fix time (4pm GMT, 11am EST) Cable can be extremely volatile with traders squaring off the month trades to start net on the first trading day of March. Be careful, many a novice trader have burnt trading this type of trading period day.

Like I said, I can vouch for this.
Great that you have this thread up AJ. I don't trade off micros but what we share in common is trading off the larger timeframes. I personally trade off 4hourly & ultimately the daily chart.
Well, I can't say that I can point & shoot as to when we'll reach the 4069 level, but I'm pretty sure when it blows away the significant support at 4150 area there will be absolutely nothing that will stop cable getting back to the 3600 levels.
Personally I had been been mostly selling cable & made loads off it & although we're pretty much in range for this past fortnight my bias remains bearish & rightfully so I'm up by +490 on the green trading off cable for the past week. (and a further +220 as this post is being moved) Okay I suppose that's about enough gloating for one post
I will post a few of my charts just to explain as to why my bias remains bearish.

I hate Fridays

Okay. The selling gap was the first warning of the selling pressure building up. Notice how there were obvious bearish engulfing patterns forming with the dark cloud cover and the doji. This gap had since been filled but the selloff has yet to be fullfilled.
The second indication is the major resistance level built around the 4500 - 4600 level. For the past two weeks this resistance level had been tested numerous times but failed to breakout.
The third reason is the head & shoulder formation. Although since this chart was taken, the formation has somewhat had a deformed look to it, it still could play out once the neckline is broken.

The month of February has seen a lot of downward pressure on Cable (yes, there have been rallies back up along the way but on the whole these rallies has been sold into to push price back down). Price is not too far away from its month's lows, so with regards to the London fix, short traders may well cover their trades and net out for the month end - this could lead to the buying back of £ and hence see Cable rally, initially. Watch out if you are currently short and have not placed a limit out on the short trade if price does spike to the upside for a few moments around the fixing time.

I appreciate the support and will be posting trades both limit orders and instant.

AJ

Hi Aj

Whatever you said in first post is completely true as far as i am concerned. i am gonna move to micro account now. good thread btw

Okay, personally this formation qualifies as a dark cloud cover to me, but it remains subjective to other's view on it as it does not look to convincing. Nonetheless this formation had somehow played a part in my short bias.

The daily. Ultimately.
Okay 3 days ago the daily candle close was a shooting star. This indicates subsiding number of buyers. To top it off, the shooting star bounced exactly off my sma which acts as a moving support/resistance. The doji beside the shooting star the day after had already indicated that buyers and sellers were evenly matched at the time and the daily fall the day after supports the speculated further fall as by this time sellers had overcome buyers.
I do use bollinger band to double confirm my positioning and at this point the candles are already formed below the middle band.

I am not much of a fundemantalists but with the dow falling further & further coupled with endless stream of bad data, risk aversion springs to mind. And we already know for now risk aversion means stronger dollar. I'm not so sure though how long this rule will remain valid.
One news in particular that came out of Britain yesterday further supports sterling's speculated further fall. This news I quote from gammase1's post

0901 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD slipped below 1.42 overnight, and does not appear to be in a position to draw strength from a bank-led bounce in equities on the back of the RBS results, says Kenneth Broux at Lloyds Banking Group. Adds Bank of England governor Mervyn King tops the agenda Thursday, and his comments to the Treasury Select Committee could be market moving for sterling and gilts as the markets look for comments about quantitative easing and clues ahead of next week's monetary policy committee meeting. GBP/USD edges up to 1.4249. (MEX)

These are the few reasons as to why I think the sterling will fall hard. But how or what is keeping it afloat at the moment is beyond me.
This had been building for two weeks & it would probably end soon. I can still be wrong, but I really hope not.
Cheers.

At the moment I am still holding 2 short positions, with 1 profits already being locked in +200. I have another small position which was opened yesterday @4210 which I will hold & carry through to the weeks to come until it reaches 3600. If it decides to turn, I'll just let it stop me out. This had been a very good month trading this pair.
Good luck to you all.

Out and done for the week, had a feeling it was going to be short since it is Friday and broker manipulation time.