Daily GBP/JPY analysis

8:30am USDDurable Goods Orders m/m 3.0% -7.8%
8:30am USDCore Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.8% -3.1%
10:30am USDCrude Oil Inventories 4.0M
10:30am USDFed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
11:30am EURECB President Trichet Speaks


Tommorrow's news - would this drive down the pair further?

i hope no one was long

I was on Monday. Got stopped out at 231.70. I was pissed. Got back in short at 231.70. Still short. Just like last month, a great way to end the month!

At +300 pips I'm out. Waiting to reenter a long

Hey Spudfyre - where do you think we will go long?

Just to share...

On the Iran rumors increasing and Bernanke / Trichet speak, I decided to trade GJ via Dow Jones charts.

90 pips on the way down / 60 from the bounce up.

where do you see it going now? was the drop just a short term thing due to these return world events? thx

Cesar, did you recoup those loses from buying on the dips? I was buying some on the way down as well and then reversed my position. I covered the loses and am up right now. I am still holding on to my short. I will cover at 61.8 retracement (228.30) or at the next 4,9 ema cross on the 1 hour. We have some weak support at 228.91 ( based on Murray math 5 day). If it breaks that level again I think we see 228.30.

My 61.8 fib calculation came from a 4h chart - the low being 225.34 on march 18 and the high 232.99 on march 26. Just thought I would clarify.

I'm managing this drawdown with other short term trades, banking the profits... Those nice UJ/GJ pips today helped a lot.

I still didn't figure out what's next for the carries. But UJ breaching 117.0 up will be a nice indication for a possible recovery through Asia.

NYSE down is pressure to the downside, but maybe we've seen the bottom here...

Watching

Any Clue on this news?

No idea about the impact.

[DLR/YEN] y/day did 1 way trip to south from 118.00 in our time to 116.38 in NY. Yen buying on FY-end repatriation and Eur bonds redemption, and Dlr sales on geopolitical risk, Bernanke's testimony (mostly consistent with FOMC statement) led US stocks/bonds weakness under stagflation worries and weak Feb US DGO, and some carry trade unwinding under risk reduction operations, etc are the drivers.

From tdy FX spot value enters into the new FY, so general expectations are Yen sales resumes from private and institutional investors via carry trade, Toshin set-up, foreign allocation, etc would gradually pick up. From the low to the 116.70 area is bottomish in terms of price actions. The 117.00 NY reactionary high would be the immediate interests. Basically rebound through 117.10-20 would soften downside risk.

PREVIEW: FEB JAPAN RETAIL SALES (DATA DUE 19:50 ET); OTHER SURVEYS HINT AT IMPROVEMENT IN JAPANESE PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
Expectations: MoM retail sales expected at -0.1%, while YoY retail sales expected at 0.1%.
- Prior data: Retail sales in January dropped 0.8% year-on-year, the third straight monthly fall, and followed a 0.2% decline in December. Sales at large retail stores fell 0.4% after adjustments for the change in the number of stores, the fourth straight monthly decline, and rose 0.6% on an unadjusted basis, the first increase in four months. Sales at the wholesale level rose 3.6%, and commercial sales rose 2.5%.
- Key feauture for weakness in recent releases for this data series: Unusually warm weather hurt demand for winter items and slower growth in wages kept consumers from spending.
- Significant deviation in analyst estimates for today's retail sales data: According to a major news agency, forecasts from 16 economists ranged from a fall of 0.6% to a rise of 0.7%
- Reminder: The data gives insight into the strength of private sector spending, which makes up about 55% of the Japanese economy
- There are signs of improving private consumption in Japan - Q1 Tankan survey from a major news agency: Non-manufacturers (eg. retailers) are now more optimistic, hinting that domestic consumption is holding firm in the first quarter of 2007.
- More signs of improving Japanese consumption - (Repeat) 03/15 TTN analysis of Japanese Tertiary Sector Index: Signs of increasing consumption. Wholesale, retail component came in +2.2% in February after -0.5% in January. (Note: Service industries tracked by the tertiary index produce about 60% of Japan's entire economic output)
- Reminder: 03/20 (JP) BOJ'S FUKUI: BOJ WILL ADJUST RATES GRADUALLY, SAYS CONSUMPTION FIRM (Feb minutes from the BoJ: 'Members agreed that private consumption had been firm and was likely to follow a gradual uptrend, mainly reflecting the gradual increase in household income)
- JPY remains well supported as risk aversion increases - (Repeat) 03/13 President of Asian Development Bank Kuroda - carry trades can not go on forever; real-scale unwinding of Yen yet to come

Anyone long?

I'm still short right now. I will let it ride until I get a signalto go long, which looks like may come up in the next few hours or so. I am currently up +260pips

I am still short

long @ 230.00
should I not be????

Yeah I took my profit out already and I am now long @ 230.01

what is the s/r for the day? or I guess a better question would be where is this going to go???

Take a look at using moving averages as levels of support and resistance. Look at some of the following MAs on the following charts:

Time frames: Weekly, Daily, 4hr, 1hr, 15min
Simple and/or Exponential MAs: 3 year, 365, 200, 100, 50, 30 and 10

It is stunning how reliable these lines react.

I hope this helps