Forum peer pressure | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Book about bull/bear pressure or order flow 8 replies

CFTC Under Pressure from Congress !! We're Saved !! Yay !! 0 replies

Buy/Sell Pressure Indicator 0 replies

Forum peer pressure

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 26, 2009 9:09pm Feb 26, 2009 9:09pm
Everybody is long on this pair on the forum. They must know what they're talking about.

I'll go long too!

Now why is my account at negative 500 pips?

Don't call the waaaaaambulance, you just got sucked into the Forum peer pressure.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #2
  • Feb 26, 2009 9:36pm Feb 26, 2009 9:36pm
Maybe that could be used to advantage, like the odd lot index.
If everyone here is saying "long"- go short.
  • #3
  • Feb 26, 2009 9:50pm Feb 26, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting billbss
Maybe that could be used to advantage, like the odd lot index.
If everyone here is saying "long"- go short.
It's an idea but it's not wrong enough to do that.

If one did this, the account would either be slightly in the green, slightly in the red or just square.

We would need more bad calls.

I think everyone succumbs to forum peer pressure at one point or another. It's to be avoided.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #4
  • Feb 26, 2009 10:18pm Feb 26, 2009 10:18pm
In either case you're trading on someone else's reasons. Until you have your own reasons you won't have the confidence to stay in a trade, or the wisdom of when to abandon it.

Unless someone clearly explains why they got in, and how they're planning to exit, and their style of management mid-trade, what's the point?
  • #5
  • Feb 26, 2009 10:29pm Feb 26, 2009 10:29pm
Quoting Rabid
In either case you're trading on someone else's reasons. Until you have your own reasons you won't have the confidence to stay in a trade, or the wisdom of when to abandon it.

Unless someone clearly explains why they got in, and how they're planning to exit, and their style of management mid-trade, what's the point?
I couldn't agree more. There's no point. None, zip, zilch, nada.

So why is it happening?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #6
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:09pm Feb 26, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I couldn't agree more. There's no point. None, zip, zilch, nada.

So why is it happening?
1. People having no idea of the direction, coming to forum to look for an answer, either from one or more credible sources for them, or by statistical assessment (how many say long, how many short).

2. People who already have a plan and have analyzed the market thus have an idea about the direction, come and read a different (from credible source) contrarian opinion which introduces doubt and reassessment of their own analysis thus messing with the original impulse, ending in doing all the contrary that was initially planned.
  • #7
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:22pm Feb 26, 2009 11:22pm
Quoting doblece
1. People having no idea of the direction, coming to forum to look for an answer, either from one or more credible sources for them, or by statistical assessment (how many say long, how many short).

2. People who already have a plan and have analyzed the market thus have an idea about the direction, come and read a different (from credible source) contrarian opinion which introduces doubt and reassessment of their own analysis thus messing with the original impulse, ending in doing all the contrary that was initially planned.
People come to the forum for an answer from one or more credible source. The definition of credible varies from one to another. He who to one is a zero is a hero to someone else.

So a person relying on the "credible" sources base this on one of two things. Too often, a newcomer will base that opinion on the number of posts or the number of vouches of the sources.

The problem with that is a call is either good or bad. There's no "almost right" in this game.

I see it as good or bad. Black or white. The odds are 50%-50%.

Someone being here for 10 years with a billion posts and a million vouches is just as likely to make a bad call as someone who just walked through the door.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #8
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:25pm Feb 26, 2009 11:25pm
I feel like I got suckered into responding to one of those posters asking for "what do I do!?"...

Does that count?
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #9
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:27pm Feb 26, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting Tradester
I feel like I got suckered into responding to one of those posters asking for "what do I do!?"...

Does that count?
Nope.

It's the poster asking "what do I do?" and following through with it. Or worse yet, the one who didn't ask but get scared and reverses his position because his trade is against what everybody's saying...and he ends up with red pips.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #10
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:30pm Feb 26, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting Jay Walker
I couldn't agree more. There's no point. None, zip, zilch, nada.

So why is it happening?
Another thing that can start up is a mild form of "suggestion". Members of a thread can reinforce each other's forecasts, and get more and more convinced it's going a certain way. Then they can start ignoring evidence to the contrary, possibly to the point where they only see what they want to see.

Others coming in and reading their posts might be swayed by the sheer numbers leaning in that direction. If they were leaning the other way, they might hesitate to post it. Or worse yet they might be influenced to change their own. This seems to be the "peer pressure" element. Not wanting to be seen as the lone wolf with the odd idea; or not having the conviction to keep your own ideas when everyone else seems to be leaning the other way.
  • #11
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:34pm Feb 26, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting Jay Walker
People come to the forum for an answer from one or more credible source. The definition of credible varies from one to another. He who to one is a zero is a hero to someone else.

So a person relying on the "credible" sources base this on one of two things. Too often, a newcomer will base that opinion on the number of posts or the number of vouches of the sources.

The problem with that is a call is either good or bad. There's no "almost right" in this game.

I see it as good or bad. Black or white. The odds are 50%-50%.

Someone being here...
Wow I can't believe I just read this! I typically don't post to this site because there does seem to be some sort of closed secret society thing going on where only folks that have a zillion posts and the secret voucher tags get any respect around here!

No offense to those here with a zillion posts and all the fancy secret handshake tags!
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #12
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:35pm Feb 26, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Another thing that can start up is a mild form of "suggestion". Members of a thread can reinforce each other's forecasts, and get more and more convinced it's going a certain way. Then they can start ignoring evidence to the contrary, possibly to the point where they only see what they want to see.
When your only tool is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail.

Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Others coming in and reading their posts might be swayed by the sheer numbers leaning in that direction. If they were leaning the other way, they might hesitate to post it. Or worse yet they might be influenced to change their own. This seems to be the "peer pressure" element. Not wanting to be seen as the lone wolf with the odd idea; or not having the conviction to keep your own ideas when everyone else seems to be leaning the other way.
Very well said Mr. Cruiser. Very well said.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #13
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:37pm Feb 26, 2009 11:37pm
Quoting Tradester
Wow I can't believe I just read this! I typically don't post to this site because there does seem to be some sort of closed secret society thing going on where only folks that have a zillion posts and the secret voucher tags get any respect around here!

No offense to those here with a zillion posts and all the fancy secret handshake tags!
http://ipoopexcellence.com/images/at...hen-i-lold.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
  • #14
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:41pm Feb 26, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting Jay Walker
http://ipoopexcellence.com/images/at...hen-i-lold.jpg

"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #15
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:56pm Feb 26, 2009 11:56pm
Quoting Rabid
In either case you're trading on someone else's reasons. Until you have your own reasons you won't have the confidence to stay in a trade, or the wisdom of when to abandon it.

Unless someone clearly explains why they got in, and how they're planning to exit, and their style of management mid-trade, what's the point?
There's a lot of truth here. Unfortunately, they're things that people seem to only learn the hard way . . . through experience.
  • #16
  • Feb 27, 2009 5:48am Feb 27, 2009 5:48am
The way to learn in this business is to make mistakes. I can't begin to recount all of the flubs I've done, some have cost money, some haven't. And I'm still flubbing, still making mistakes. I make at least one good whopper every week.

Sometimes that means I miss a good move, other times... mostly, it means I hop out of a position too soon, only to have it take off, and find myself tearing my hair out going "WHY?! OH LORD WHY?! WHY DID I JUST DO THAT?!?" Which only makes things worse. Then there's the pressure to try and capture the rest of the move, so I find myself trying to buy into fading strength, only to get filled at the top of the move, and stopped out on a reversal.

Let me tell you... THAT SUCKS. So I've had to put rules in place that I've got tacked up on the monitor. Rules like requiring at least 10 minutes of thought before putting in a trade. Rules like setting my initial entry orders near the open of the session, instead of trying to chase the market.

So why am I telling everyone that? Because if you're honest... you know you've made the same dang mistakes. Now I'm sure they have their own flavor to them, everyone is a little different, but we're not all so different than we don't end up doing the same stupid crap over and over.

So why do ppl fall into forum peer pressure? Because it's an out. It's an out to the self-doubt, it's an out to the responsibility, it's an out to the difficult process of self-realization and re-programming that we all must go thru.

It leads us to group think, and group think is a powerful evolutionary response. The same as self-doubt when a position is against you.

Think about it, most of the time when a person has left their group they've gotten eaten by a bear or a tiger or something. It's only been the last thousand years or so that it's been safe enough to be a loner, and even then... you're still going to get mauled occasionally. Group think is powerful, it's an instinct in all of us, it makes us feel safe, and in the tribal wilderness it actually made us safer. So we're all programmed to doubt ourself in the face of opposition, especially when there's more of them than us. Majority rule is built within our evolutionary programming. It's part of who we are as a people.

We as human beings are in a really wierd part of our evolution. We evolved in a world vastly different than the one we're in now. Most species would just die out from their inflexibility, but our brain power gives us a way out. It lets us realize our mistakes and adapt, even when it's counter to our evolution. That ability is why we're here today, but re-programming only comes at the expense of pain. That's why this business is hard.

It's not because the setups are difficult, they aren't. It's not because it's difficult to find an edge, it isn't. It's not because we're asked to have money, because you don't need that much really. It's difficult because it's counter to every instinct we have.

Peer pressure is an instinct. It used to be very valuable, it used to keep you alive and apart of your community. Now... not so much. It's too easily abused.
  • #17
  • Feb 27, 2009 6:02am Feb 27, 2009 6:02am
Great post Rabid. Show me anyone who doesn't get suckered into peer pressure to some degree and I'll show you a liar.
It's not just about following the crowd either. I can't participate in any of the live calls threads, because just by posting something publicly, it affects how I'll stay in the trade. Usually hanging on to a loser for longer, to prove a point (what point, I know...). This kind of ego trading is the worst in my book, so I now just avoid those kind of threads.
  • #18
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:39am Feb 27, 2009 10:39am
Quoting Rabid
The way to learn in this business is to make mistakes. I can't begin to recount all of the flubs I've done, some have cost money, some haven't. And I'm still flubbing, still making mistakes. I make at least one good whopper every week.
You have no idea how good it makes me feel to read these words. I shit you not because I pulled a whopper last night that should last me the next month!! don't ask
  • #19
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:45am Feb 27, 2009 10:45am
There's nothing wrong w/ making mistakes. The only "sin" comes in not learning from them. Write down the mistakes, make a chart, write down how you feel, keep a detailed log. Then re-read it ever-so-often... no sense in making a mistake worse by not finding a way to profit from it. You paid for it, why not get your money's worth of education out of it?
  • #20
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:52am Feb 27, 2009 10:52am
Quoting Rabid
There's nothing wrong w/ making mistakes. The only "sin" comes in not learning from them. Write down the mistakes, make a chart, write down how you feel, keep a detailed log. Then re-read it ever-so-often... no sense in making a mistake worse by not finding a way to profit from it. You paid for it, why not get your money's worth of education out of it?
A great way of looking at things. Thanks for the nugget, Rabid!
0 traders viewing now