Trading EUR/USD & Majors, Longer Term

I have grown tired of the other thread and wanted to start another thread trading on the Daily timeframe only. If you only have a small account I can show you how to do that. Trading the Daily is light years easier than trading the smaller charts like the 15, 30 min or the 1 Hr. You can trade the daily with a smaller account by changing to a micro account and by doing this you can easily handle the 400-500 pip stoplosses. I gaurantee you will not be sitting in front of your computer all day long.

AJ

The idea of this thread is to simplify the art of trading. There is just too darn much noise on the smaller timeframes and spikes can easily take you out of trades. Trendlines to mark the direction of the trend. Channels to catch the zig-zag motion of the ranging markets and Divergence to give you that edge when it presents itself.

AJ

I Gaurantee you will love this method. When I switched down to a Micro account my accuracy improved 100%. My biggest problem was freaking out and pulling off my trades at a loss and then watching it go in my direction well into profit. Sound Familiar? Then this is for you.

We will pull fib levels and pay close attention to the 4 major levels in my book. The 31.8%, 50%, 61.8% and the 76.1%. We will buy or sell at these levels. We will also look for overextended bars and Inside Bars that are very profitable.
AJ

In this post in the EUR/USD Forum. You say you have your stop loss at 1.3130. So you are risking about 300 pips. How much profit are you going for? Where is your target level? I would assume hopefully at least 1.2550 which is 270 pips away. Or are you going 1.2330? Also why do you have your stop loss there. There is strong resistance at 1.32-1.33 on the Daily chart. I myslef will mostly be selling calls there and entering short spot positions most likely depending on the current fundamentals. Possibly a put option as well to target 1.2550 all to target 1.2550. I also trade longer term, the daily, weekly, and monthly and look to make usually at least 200-300 pips a trade and I look for alot more. However, Risk to reward ratio seems extremely important. I look for 1:4 or 1:5 opportunities. Those don't always come along of course. But hopefully 1:1.5 at least. But if your targeting just 1.2550, you are risking more than you are hoping to gain.

Below is an example of a group of trades I took lately. The first shown is a bounce off the 61.8 Fib level and as you can see, it was a nobrainer. The Entry was placed at 1.4364 and the stop at 1.4755, (390 Pips). The 1st T/P is the Zero point of where the Fib was pulled and netted a cool 541 pips.

AJ

I would rather shoot for degree of accuracy of the trade and take the 1 for 1 deals. You can see clearly where my T/P is way down at 1.2560. I dont care where resistance is and I put my stop there because that is where it mathematically comes out to be. For your info, I pulled 1/2 profit off at 1.3819 and let the rest run down to 1.3380 which is 61.8 % of the move up from December 4th 2008. So my target was 540 pips with a 390 stop and ended up pulling 989 total off of it. You do not have to be here, if you don't like it, you can go elsewhere.

AJ

Look, if you are going to come here just to piss and moan, and bash what I am doing, just leave.

AJ

I didn't say I didn't like it. We are discussing your ideals. When you start a thread you will have to civally answer questions. I never said you were a dumb ass or you didn't know what you were doing. I simply asked if you were risking more than you were planning on making. So when did you enter your current short position. I'm not talking about the past. I'm talking about now. 1.2565 is a good target btw. It is a strong area of support on the Daily Chart. lol The purpose of a forum is to discuss. Don't take questions as attacks. Some ppl have already written you off, I'm willing to give you a chance.

And I think you'll agree if you examine your daily chart that 1.3050-70 and 1.33 have acted as strong resistance much better than 1.3130. I'm trying to understand the reason for where you place your stop loss since you are fine risking so much why not move it even further back since the price action touching 1.3130 still would not give evidence of a break upwards and away from 1.2565.

Here is my latest trade that shows the Falling Wedge. I have placed a short at the top of Thursdays candle which is just shy of the 50% and I added a micro at the 61.8% as a compounded scale in. Reason, I have 4 confirmations for this short. 1) We are at the top of the Wedge, 2) We are at the 61.8% Fib level. 3) There is a slight Hidden Bearish Divergence. 4) My software is giving me a sell trigger here along with a buy on the swissy. I expect this to do no more than its been doing all along this Wedge. This is a high probability trade so I had no problem scaling in as it pulled back on Friday and will gladly risk 267 pips here at .020 which is a whopping $26.70 I am risking. Target is around 300 for the 1st T/P. I will build from a micro account in this thread. I am actually trading more, but for the new traders learning, I will stick to micros because they will be able to trade the daily that way without worry.

Jim

Ok, I don't really expect to come close to this stop on this trip down. If you notice I have a buffer to stoploss 1/2 if it breaks this Wedge. You see, it is eventually going to break this to the top side and we don't really know when. I just want to keep the stop above the last high. So rest assured the T/P will always be equal too or more than the stoploss. I will be taking swing trades and Inside Bar trades with smaller stops and T/P's when they present themselves. This bar on the Euro is over extended and I expect it to go back to 2883 before coming back down.

AJ

I don't care who has written me off! When I start posting trades before they happen and they start coming in positive, there will be plenty of people here. Money talks......

AJ

Just so you can follow exsisting trades I have on the table I will post them.

SHORT EUR/USD AT 1.2778 STOP AT 1.3130 AND T/P AT 1.2565
LONG USD/CHF AT 1.1566 STOP AT 1.1330 AND T/P AT 1.1862
LONG USD/JPY AT 92.96 STOP AT 90.94 AND T/P AT 94.52

Here is the plot of my trades. The first lot I sold at the bottoms in the grey rectangle. I sold again at the 61.8 % Fib level. See last post for stops entries etc....

Trades have pulled back to clear the over extended bars and made good on the EUR/USD. U/CHF did not make iy all the way back. Lots of drawdown but thats to be expected here on this Sunday night. Trades are starting to come back the other way. Pairs coming back into profit and that is how this strategy works. If you can't handle the price pulling back on you then this is not for you.

AJ

U/J +88 pips and climbing

Close Trade at 94.22 for +123 pips

LONG USD/JPY AT 92.96 STOP AT 90.94 AND T/P AT 94.52

AJ

SHORT USD/JPY AT 94.77 STOP AT 97.18 AND T/P AT 92.39

AJ

Ask Yourself the following:

1) Have you ever been trading the smaller charts and get out or get stopped out of a trade, only to watch it turn and go in your direction for profit?

2) Do you want to visit your computer once or twice a day and check your profits?

3) Are you tired of sitting in front of your computer for minimal profits or possibly even losses?

4) Are you tired of watching three different charts just to get an entry.

5) Are you tired of drawing lines on 3 different charts and using indicators that lag and are useless on the lower charts?

If you answered yes to the following then this is for you. Correct me if I am wrong, but Indy's are made for the longer term timeframes, right? They lag so much they do nothing for you on the lower charts except confuse.

What you need to do to join this thread:

1) If you are under $10,000.00 you need to have your broker change you to a Micro account.

2) Be willing to take 5 to 6 trades a week and net 400-500 pips.

3) Not be afraid to see your trade draw down 200 pips.