Mohammad's Live Trades

Dear Satni,
Thanks for your kind words, Hope a lot of grand pips for you. I will be very glad if you inform me about your ideas & trading view related to E/$ here.

Regards,

Hi Traders,
Some post before I was talking of my observation from the charts in weekly time frame. Now I want to show you in the Daily time frame what I like to happen. I say I like, because I really don't expect the market to do what I like BUT only I like it if I could predict the markets move for the next day!!

Now as you can see, Our daily Bullish trend line has been broken in the holidays & the market has respected this break one time some days ago & had shaped a Bearish trend line. BUT from the reaction of the market to NFP in Friday I think that the Bullish weekly trend line is going to hold for some time & we will see the break of this Bearish TL. Also our be loved moving averages are flat and are showing the weakness of bears in this period to move further.

What I would like to see is shown from some days ago in the picture attached. If this happen I will enter full gear heading North to 1.33 area BUT if we see something else I will take it as the break of the top of Friday's candle happen as an Out Side bar with only 1~2% risk as I see the probability very high for the 1.33 area be tested once again.

I will enjoy your thoughts and views,
Regards,
Mohammad

1. For a BO-Trade Buy Stop @ 1.3005 T/P 1.3285 S/L 1.2695 Risking only 1~2% of equity

Will put S/L to B/E as soon as we see a good move up upon close of H4 candle & will look for P.A activity.

Trade Comment: I must say, I didn't liked what happened because when price makes a gap like this usually it is going to have difficulty NOT filling it up in the first hours of market opening & on times like this that its near the Trend line it will show the strength of the market in our desired direction. It didn't made the one I would like to SO I'm NOT going there with full gear BUT to only respect him for a Break Out Buy & risking 1~2% equity with trailing S/L on H4 time frame P.A looking.

well, after a rejection from the Bearish TL price is going up as explained before BUT we still have the Bearish TL concern:

1. The Bearish TL: I could only say it is broken when I wait for the day to end and see the final "Price Action". If its completely broken & my target hasn't been reached I will add some more to it.
2. Resistance of 1.3080 : For now there are some fight around this area that I think its significant is much lower than the TL BUT will be watched closely as the day ends.
3. S/L to B/E: I'm looking at this matter from a daily view right now BUT if the TL was broken at the end of the day, S/L will be at B/E.

Hope the best for all,
Mohammad

Update: The latest 4H candle has really surprised me & the bulls are really showing weakness passing the 1.3080 territory SO we accept what markets tells us and are out for some 9 pips ONLY. We will NOT forget what a wise man said: "Never let a profit be a loss"

I have called this "Variable Systematic Trading". My system will change with the facts changing in the market & is a lot on the shoulder of traders experience when used in real time.
The basic objects I’m looking for from a trading system are:

1. Flexible to the current volatility of Market.
2. Flexible to Trending/Sideways Market.
3. Trading from a Daily time frame view to support ones needs for another job (NOT looking at FX Trading as a living source of money in the first years).
4. Slowly building confidence in the trader himself as we increase the risk % with time & equity growth.
5. Benefiting the most from market moves & NOT sitting a side when we understand what the market is doing / will do.

The principals that I follow are:

1. ·Automatic TREND detection: Speaking from experience this is so essential for trading. A human couldn’t be cut from his emotions. We read, talk & have feelings about the subjects around us & this could be really harmful when related to trading SO we use the simple way of knowing the trend; “Moving Averages”. From experience 21&8 EMA will simply show us the trend BUT one should remember that they aren’t 100% proven SO we could take counter trend positions BUT we should consider them only as quick trades and NOT the ones we could hold for some time.

1. ·Managing Risk: One of the easiest & most flexible ways is to take a percentage of your account & risk it for each trade. This way you will have the benefit of compounding the profits with time, being flexible for the volatility, protecting your capital from a major loss, … There are other ways I’ve used BUT that was useful & very profitable for lower volatility days like early in 2008 and before. When this volatility decreases I will switch to that strategy again.

1. ·Never let a profit turn to a loss: This has a definition, 1 pip isn’t a profit to matter about it. This subject is all about experience, Experience of knowing where the market has changed its way. If/When it hits a major Support/Resistance area + destroying the emotion of “Hoping the market will come back”.

1. ·Always respect major Support/Resistance areas: These S/R zones are weekly S/R areas, Clear Daily & Weekly trend lines, Daily 21&8 EMA.

1. ·Using clear daily Low/Highs as S/L areas: If we think about the purpose of the place of our S/L, we will find out that it’s clearly about where our trade is out of validation. Mixing this with experience will lead us to these low/high areas as the market will have a lot of hard time reaching them ONLY when the probability of our trade is high.

1. ·Having T/P for every trade in major S/R areas: Major S/R areas are where lots of traders will close their positions, some aggressive ones even close & switch it to reverse and as we know the most successful long term trader is the one who can keep himself riding with the wave of orders being filled, So why don’t be successful when we can.

These will change/updated with time & will be reflected.
I hope this will make me focused on the trades I take with these rules and maybe they will benefit some of you traders.

Best Regards,
Mohammad

My view of E/$ is attached:

1. The first daily bearish TL has been broken and this break has been respected 3 times this week.
2. The main weekly TL has been tested for 3 times lately with complete rejection.
3. We have had an Internal Bar that its down side has been tested yesterday (12/2/2009) and has been rejected (shaped a Pin Bar).
4. Price is making lower highs all week SO we are having a channel getting tighter plus its down side has been tested & rejected.

From this view, I'm bullish on E/$ in the days coming ahead us if our weekly TL could hold for Friday. I still think that we will have a hard test of 1.33 area soon.

From the information shown in previous post:

1. V-Trade: Buy Stop @ 1.3009 S/L 1.2695 T/P 1.336 with 1~2% equity risk (for now this trade is a counter-trend one)

The S/L will be moved to B/E if we see a good in favor 4H closed candle. Will take some profit if T/P was not reached by the end of the day.

**V-Trade's are described some posts before

Hi Traders,

There has been a 100 pip GAP down. The gap's Risk/Reward is looking interesting.

Bought @ 1.2789 S/L @ 1.2692 T/P 1.2787 Risk Management: As a counter trend ONLY 1~2% of equity

NOTE: Today's price action will show the direction for the E/$ in the coming days, whether the gap is filled or not. IF filled the holding of bought positions will show the power of weekly TL. IF didn't filled at all it will be a great signal of a continuing bearish price action.

As a result of testing the Bearish TL trying to close this GAP I have moved the S/L to B/E to protect from any losses.

Will wait & let the trade work itself out.

Update: Out & protected!

Sold @ 1.2654 S/L 1.2835 T/P 1.257 with 3~5% equity risk

Trade Comment: We had a very clear break of 1.27 support area in H4 time frame & from a S/R view the next stop is 1.25 zone.

1. The Bullish Weekly TL is clearly broken SO down we go
2. S/L moved to B/E to protect equity.
3. Have a Sell limit in case of any retracements @ 1.269 S/L 1.2835 T/P 1.257
4. Will update the journal about the recent GAP, the signs were the Weekly Bullish TL was broken from the start of the week & possible targets of where it will go in the coming hours.

Regards,
Mohammad

Update: Closed the first trade @ 1.2639 due to 3 candles of pin bars shaping. It seems MAYBE a retrace is in place.

1. Weekend gaps are trade able if we use a system to trade it.

1. In the recent weeks when the market starts its trading hours, price usually tests the other side of the gap till it reaches a major S/R area where it will than turn & fill the gap.
2. The occurrence of filling the gap in Monday trading hours is very high (I think more than 90% of the times)
3. There are two levels of filling the gap in Monday. First it will fill the gap between Sunday start & the recent low/high of Friday than IF it has enough power it will continue & fill till the close of Friday.

1. After the gap has been filled, from holding the position / closing them massively, one could predict the sentiment of the traders on further trading days & markets move.

The recent weekend GAP was a sample of extreme bearish power to lower the E/$ price. As you know, the market only filled the gap between Sunday opening & the recent low of Friday price action with a lot of difficulty & in late hours SO it was a good sign where we could be heading.

Regards,
Mohammad

Looking at weekly price action when you have clear Trend lines + Major S/R levels will make it a lot more simplified. Kindly take a look at the below picture IF you mix this raw info with James16 price action you will see that this increased volatility (if used properly) could increase our profits because our targets could be reached in days where in normal conditions it will take weeks.

The most important thing to consider is that the markets are dynamic SO we as traders should be dynamic too.

One of the patterns I see in the weekly chart is where the open of the new weekly candle is on the other side of the TL. You see, suddenly all the support/resistance of that specific area where the TL was protecting goes away & we see a clear break of the TL. Using this method we could perdict the major movements of that week.

Also if we put greed away & clear our mind from any useless data ONLY charts we will see that we could see where the flow of orders are getting filled and gathering momentum. I suggest looking at the weekly price action for a lot of time & every week for at least six months than maybe we will have some clue of where the price will go.

So manage your focus on weekly time frame with proper TL & S/R zones + James16 P.A and as a trader our chances to survive will be higher.

Regards,
Mohammad

From my view we could have three kind of moves:

1. A first test of 1.27 zone & retrace ...
2. A first test of 1.25 zone & coming up to its open & than a test of 1.27 area
3. ranging from 1.26 to 1.247 area

I prefer a first test of 1.27 zone & retrace So I have the setup ready for it.

 

1. Sell limit @ 1.269 S/L 1.2835 T/P 1.255 (& lower) Risk Management 3~5% equity risk

Regards,
Mohammad

1. As a place to STOP looking for bearish trades I have a S/L @ 1.2835 (1.27 zone is where there was a lot of support, Now it is BIG resistance) & my target is 1.2485.
2. I will have three entries: a. 1.2566:Yesterday market close (1% equity risk) b. 1.2615: Near yesterday high (2% equity risk) c. 1.269: Major S/R Levels (2% equity risk)
3. The first two trades will be closed at end of the day if they are in profit (They are seen as a continuation of trend where price makes lower highs & lower lows) & I will look for the third one to meet T/P (As a ranging market).

Regards,
Mohammad

From a daily view the latest candle has passed the high of the previous daily candle SO we have entered to a range market as a result the two active trades have lost their validity.

 

1. The 1.2566 trade: T/P moved to B/E
2. The 1.2615 trade: T/P moved to B/E

Later today I will write my thoughts about Trending & Ranging market and how I determine them.

Regards,
Mohammad

1. Trending Market: A trending market is obviousely seen as a "Higher highs, Higher lows" or "Lower highs, Lower lows". This is a simple approuch to understand a trending market. Sometimes "Higher lows without higher highs" or "Lower highs without lower lows" alone could be seen as trending market that we are seeing some resistance/support in the way of trend. (Tightening price action)
2. Ranging Market: Is where we are NOT seeing the mentioned pattern where a specific Support & Resistance area are holding and the price bounces between these two zones.

How to trade:

1. When we are in a Trending Market we should follow the trend. In ideal trending markets we simply use the previous low/high as a S/L area & enter the trend in real-time market quotations or maybe in some retrace / break out moves. We should specify T/P targets for the day SO that we accumulate profit daily. T/P targets could be the next major S/R area. We could repeat this daily till the trend gets exhausted.
2. When in a Ranging Market, we should put S/L out side the Support & Resistance zone where the price is bouncing some where near a market made daily high/low & risk 2 times more in the direction of main TREND specified by the two EMAs. T/P should be held inside the two distances.
3. An Ideal Trending Market is where we should be really BOLD on risking & is where real good profits are made. This market is known through that the are no major S/R levels in the direction of trend. An obvious major S/R level is where a broken trend line limits the markets move when tested again after some time. In this kind of market I have risked up to 15% of equity on daily trades. A beautiful sample of this kind of market is from 8/12/2008 till 18/12/2008.

Regards,
Mohammad

1. The 1.2566 trade: T/P @ B/E , S/L moved to 1.277 (previous daily peak)
2. The 1.2615 trade: T/P @ B/E , S/L moved to 1.277 (previous daily peak)
3. The 1.2690 trade: T/P moved to 1.258 (In the range) , S/L moved to B/E (to protect equity, previous 4H candle high)

Regards,
Mohammad

NOTE: This bounce off 1.27 zone could be a possible good holding for long-term BUT we do NOT forget that we are using trend to reach daily targets till its exhausted SO we should put greed away & understand that with this method we will get a lot the trend as it gathers momentum.

Update:

1. The 1.2615 trade: Closed @ B/E.
2. The 1.2690 trade: T/P reached, 1.4% equity growth.
3. The 1.2566 trade: Closed @ B/E.

The trading week is ending & I hope every one of you traders has been successful this week. The results for this week are:

 

1. 16 Feb: Buy @ 1.2789 (Aiming for the GAP) Initial S/L @ 1.2695 (Daily low+ Supporting Bullish TL) T/P @ 1.2887 (The close of previous Friday) Risk Management: 2% of equity Trade result: When price reached the first stage of closing the gap S/L moved to B/E. Price hit the S/L. P/L = 0 pips
2. 17 Feb: Sell @ 1.2654 (Entering after the confirmed break from 4H time frame) Initial S/L @ 1.2835 (Previous daily high + Out of broken TL) T/P @ 1.257 (Weekly Major S/R zone) Risk Management: 5% of equity Trade result: price went down SO aimed to trial the high of every 4H candle BUT before releasing a news from Europe price has shaped 3 1H pin bars SO got out. P/L = 15 pips
3. 17 Feb: Sell limit @ 1.269 (Looking for a retrace + Broken support zone) S/L 1.2835 T/P 1.257 Risk Management: 5% of equity Trade result: Missed the trade with 15 pips!!! P/L = 0 pips
4. 19 Feb: Sell @ 1.2566 (Looking for trend continuation + Previous daily close) S/L @ 1.2835 T/P @ 1.2485 (Near a broken bearish daily TL -That will act as slowing trend) Risk Management: 1% of equity Trade Result: because the previous daily high was passed by the price action SO trade was no more valid & S/L moved to B/E. P/L = 0 pips
5. 19 Feb: Sell @ 1.2615 (Looking for trend continuation + Near previous daily high) S/L @ 1.2835 T/P 1.2485 Risk Management: 2% of equity Trade result: same as previous. P/L = 0 pips
6. 19 Feb: Sell @ 1.269 (A Ranging market trade) S/L 1.2835 T/P 1.258 (In the range) Risk Management: 2% of equity Trade result: After price action in the favor of trade moved S/L to B/E as 4H candle high & waited for the target to be reached. P/L = 110 pips

The Week results: 125 pips , 1.9% equity growth.
Patients always pay!

Regards,
Mohammad

NOTE: Looking at the market it has broken the bearish daily TL and is now back up the weekly support line. We will have a very interesting week ahead.

Welcome back,

1. Weekly view:

1. The week have started with a recent Sunday candle lowering the price from the weekly bullish TL (A weakness for the bulls)
2. But also a nice shaped pin bar that on its break from the upside it could head to 1.3050 & 1.33

1. Daily view:

1. And there we have a broken daily bearish TL (Significant resistance for trend continuation)
2. The two EMA's are bearish but MORE side ways.
3. We are having three "higher highs, higher lows" daily candles. A pattern that is showing bullish signs.

1. SO I'm expecting a side ways market that till the end of the week, it will try to decide where to go next! I by myself, from a technical view, am very little bullish trying to build some confidence on it.

Trade Setup's:
Buy limit @ 1.27 (Rejection of broken bearish TL) S/L 1.25 T/P 1.3030 Risk Management: 1~2% equity risk
Buy Stop @ 1.289 (Weekly pin bar) S/L 1.25 T/P 1.3030 Risk Management: 1~2% equity risk