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Don't get sucked in by dollar strength

  • #21
  • Feb 22, 2009 2:37pm Feb 22, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
My guess = yes.

I know that we are not oracles, anything can happen, money management is a key, probabilities etc, Been there done that.


Thanks again I won't bother u anymore.
  • #22
  • Feb 22, 2009 2:42pm Feb 22, 2009 2:42pm
long term i agree the pesofication of the zimbabwe-weimar dollar will doom the us dollar.

short term the usd is still the world's reserve and "safe haven" but that advantage will change soon.only the iousa can print paper iou's while other countries have to actually produce or sell products.

from the times of cavemen using shells as a means of exchange,all fiat currencies bite the dust eventually.
gold is still around after 5000 years of currencies disappearing one after another.

glad i backed up the bullion truck when gold was under $400.
  • #23
  • Feb 22, 2009 4:48pm Feb 22, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I am positioning for the dollar to begin weakening again. Sure it is not what you are reading on the right side of the board here with all the stories but that is exactly the point. Ask yourself a simple question, "Why am I buying the dollar?" It has been a story of..."Well armageddon and the dollar is the best of the worst"

I think the dollar play is wearing very thin personally. Look at a long term chart and you will see a secular downtrend in the dollar, no one can argue this. We are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow. Consider...
Have to say e/u 2550 a great place to be from.

To start the week Im watching the e/u 2808 area and how 2738 area responds monday.
  • #24
  • Feb 22, 2009 4:48pm Feb 22, 2009 4:48pm
1) You're forgetting that following the money is how you make money in trading, i.e getting on the bandwagon.

2) The price action on your chart suggests an upside break of your mid trend line, look at the last rejection of the line, followed by a move back up to it. This to me looks like the support is stronger than the res.

I do not know what you are trying to achieve entirely by this thread. But suggesting people to trade counter "current" trend (i.e the micro trend that is up on your monthly chart) is going to burn alot of fingers. Especially since there are people around that hang on everyones every word.
  • #25
  • Feb 22, 2009 5:21pm Feb 22, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting Takisd
1) You're forgetting that following the money is how you make money in trading, i.e getting on the bandwagon.

2) The price action on your chart suggests an upside break of your mid trend line, look at the last rejection of the line, followed by a move back up to it. This to me looks like the support is stronger than the res.

I do not know what you are trying to achieve entirely by this thread. But suggesting people to trade counter "current" trend (i.e the micro trend that is up on your monthly chart) is going to burn alot of fingers. Especially...
Thank you for the advice. Guess I have a lot to learn.

As far as what I am trying to achieve....maybe I don't have a specific goal in mind. What do you try to achieve when you make a post?
  • #26
  • Feb 22, 2009 5:27pm Feb 22, 2009 5:27pm
Quoting Takisd
...suggesting people to trade counter "current" trend (i.e the micro trend that is up on your monthly chart) is going to burn alot of fingers. Especially since there are people around that hang on everyones every word.
Considering most people on here are scalpers, you are right there. If they want to trade the 5 min chart and base it off a trend 10 time frames above, it's their own stupidity.

DRT does have a valid point though, secular trend for the USD is still {at this stage} down.
  • #27
  • Edited 9:02pm Feb 22, 2009 5:54pm | Edited 9:02pm
lets see what e/u2791, g/u 4364, a/u 6437-39 does?

squared e/u @ 2945 watching area 2952
a/u 6515-33
g/u 4550
  • #28
  • Edited 9:57pm Feb 22, 2009 9:24pm | Edited 9:57pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
Considering most people on here are scalpers, you are right there. If they want to trade the 5 min chart and base it off a trend 10 time frames above, it's their own stupidity.

DRT does have a valid point though, secular trend for the USD is still {at this stage} down.
I just used the 5 min chart for entry @ e/u 2791 evaluating sun.daily chart and I considered my weekly trend guide @ 2808 and squared @ 2945 as it hit my daily high area.
I left a small amount on the table as I did from 2580 area.
Now Im back considering the 5 min. again looking for direction from 2952 area.
3305 is my guide for monthly trend guide
As I believe it all starts with the 5 min.
Are we going to continue down with the trend at this time or not ? Who knows?

Im going to follow the 5 min ,15, 1hr, 4hr at this point in time.

speaking of 5 min are we going to go from 2905 back up to 2945 area ? 05 acts like she wants to hold at the moment.
  • #29
  • Feb 22, 2009 10:26pm Feb 22, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I am positioning for the dollar to begin weakening again. Sure it is not what you are reading on the right side of the board here with all the stories but that is exactly the point. Ask yourself a simple question, "Why am I buying the dollar?" It has been a story of..."Well armageddon and the dollar is the best of the worst"

I think the dollar play is wearing very thin personally. Look at a long term chart and you will see a secular downtrend in the dollar, no one can argue this. We are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow. Consider...
USDJPY is sitting at the bottom of the multi-year linear regression channel (120 months,2std). Why do you think that BOJ would do nothing to help Japanese exporters?
No Fear, No Regrets A sense of purpose makes life meaningful
  • #30
  • Feb 23, 2009 12:01am Feb 23, 2009 12:01am
Quoting lilpip
I just used the 5 min chart for entry @ e/u 2791 evaluating sun.daily chart and I considered my weekly trend guide @ 2808 and squared @ 2945 as it hit my daily high area.
I left a small amount on the table as I did from 2580 area.
Now Im back considering the 5 min. again looking for direction from 2952 area.
3305 is my guide for monthly trend guide
As I believe it all starts with the 5 min.
Are we going to continue down with the trend at this time or not ? Who knows?

Im going to follow the 5 min ,15, 1hr, 4hr at this point in time.

speaking...
What you're doing is fine bud. Fine tuning your entries on lower time frames is all good.

The problem lies when people base their trades off a trend way too many times frames above their trading style.

For example, if I plan to scalp 20 pips, the monthly, weekly or daily trends have no bearing on my decision. I'll trade with the trend on the specific time frame I'm trading.
  • #31
  • Feb 23, 2009 4:25am Feb 23, 2009 4:25am
An article i came across a few days ago. People were making fun of Peter Schiff 5 years ago but he was right all along so...
I have also been reading Schiff's book(it is in the article), interesting and worth taking into account.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf dollar is collapsing peter schiff.pdf   258 KB | 519 downloads
  • #32
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:50pm Feb 23, 2009 5:50pm
dont get sucked in buy EURO strengh! ha ha ha there is notrhing of value out there now apart from GOLD!

most the majors are messed up.

hey downriver trader I bought the eur/usd yesterday afternoon based of your recomendation I lost 180 pips thanks alot.......

Joking but come on what value is in the euro zone??? NOTHING! the world is in a mess.... accpet it and realise while the fear is here the USD will rise and GOLD will rise.

I am bearish as hell on the euro AND i PICKED UP 160 ON MY SHORT LAST NIGHT..... i WILL CONTINUE TO SELL THE RALLIES TILL THE TREND CHANGES.

TOP PICKERS lol

Look at the weekly Euro please tell what is bullish about that chart??? so what are you doing bottom picking with no grounds..... that was a great short if you could just get over the fact that the USD can go up. please people be objective....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX EUR_USD (-).png Size: 31 KB
  • #33
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:57pm Feb 23, 2009 7:57pm
DRT, 10-4 on not getting sucked in, anything I might keep in mind?

e/u areas of entrest this week
1.3398
1.2808
1.2518

day
1.2959-67
1.2786-93
? 1.2728 ?
1.2499-2599
  • #34
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:02pm Feb 23, 2009 8:02pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
What you're doing is fine bud. Fine tuning your entries on lower time frames is all good.

The problem lies when people base their trades off a trend way too many times frames above their trading style.

For example, if I plan to scalp 20 pips, the monthly, weekly or daily trends have no bearing on my decision. I'll trade with the trend on the specific time frame I'm trading.
10-4
  • #35
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:01pm Feb 23, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
dont get sucked in buy EURO strengh! ha ha ha there is notrhing of value out there now apart from GOLD!

most the majors are messed up.

hey downriver trader I bought the eur/usd yesterday afternoon based of your recomendation I lost 180 pips thanks alot.......

Joking but come on what value is in the euro zone??? NOTHING! the world is in a mess.... accpet it and realise while the fear is here the USD will rise and GOLD will rise.

I am bearish as hell on the euro AND i PICKED UP 160 ON MY SHORT LAST NIGHT..... i WILL CONTINUE TO SELL THE RALLIES...


180 pips hey? Go back to the hourly chart please.

While DRT may be making a bold prediction at the risk of being cut down by the tall poppy syndromers, at least he's got the balls to throw it out there. He is talking LONG term - find out what secular trend means as it is clear you have no clue by jumping into a trade off what someone has said on a public form.

The main point is that the secular trend is down. It will remain so until the market proves otherwise.

I'm certainly not bottom picking and jumping all in, will wait for the charts to show signs of a bottom. My planning is for thousands of pips over months to even years, certainly not a hundred in the matter of hours.

The secular down trend may even end yet, there's no certainties in this game. But if the trend is *supposed* to be your friend, long term it's still down.
  • #36
  • Edited 1:38am Feb 24, 2009 1:11am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting NuckingFuts


180 pips hey? Go back to the hourly chart please.

While DRT may be making a bold prediction at the risk of being cut down by the tall poppy syndromers, at least he's got the balls to throw it out there. He is talking LONG term - find out what secular trend means as it is clear you have no clue by jumping into a trade off what someone has said on a public form.

The main point is that the secular trend is down. It will remain so until the market proves otherwise.

I'm certainly not bottom picking and jumping all in, will wait for...
ha ha ha

douche i posted a thread on the usd break out. not one reply and if you had followed it you could have made money. but no it's a crap doomed currency.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=136330

last year i called the usd up when everyone told me i was a idiot. well i bought usd in july and i laughed all the way so I am one for making bold claims and trading them.

look at the situation.....

what makes the euro a good currency right now?? think about it!!!!

the 180 was a joke if u can read.

I did clean up short last night and i am planing to short the value packed euo again on a signal.....

good grief get over the same old story of the usd has to go down cuz it's no good. mate wake up and look at a chart nothing stays in a bull or bear market. if you knew how to look at a market you would know that you have to start on the long term and work in to see the overall picture.

the usd will fall agin and the euro will rise but till the signs are confirmed stay with the trend
  • #37
  • Feb 24, 2009 1:15am Feb 24, 2009 1:15am
Chart tells a great story if you know how to read it
  • #38
  • Edited 7:33pm Feb 24, 2009 7:18pm | Edited 7:33pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I am positioning for the dollar to begin weakening again. Sure it is not what you are reading on the right side of the board here with all the stories but that is exactly the point. Ask yourself a simple question, "Why am I buying the dollar?" It has been a story of..."Well armageddon and the dollar is the best of the worst"

I think the dollar play is wearing very thin personally. Look at a long term chart and you will see a secular downtrend in the dollar, no one can argue this. We are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow. Consider...
e/u sure feels like she wants to move up.
Ill be watching 1.2785-2808 area tonite and ready to add to the move up if shes ready.
  • #39
  • Feb 26, 2009 12:27pm Feb 26, 2009 12:27pm
I've been reading a lot about the impending 'perfect storm' in the eurozone region because of Eastern European debt held by Western Europe. Some analysts are saying the repercussions of this could be far worse than the effects of the sub-prime crisis.

So while the US may not be in great shape, the EU looks like it could be in absolutely disastrous shape with little power and cohesiveness to actually do anything about it.
  • #40
  • Feb 26, 2009 12:52pm Feb 26, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting jacko
The good news is that the BEST asset class to be in is.... currencies. All other asset classes, especially property and stocks, are falling with no real option of capitalising on those falls. (I am discounting Futures because I think that Forex is a "safer" market to be trading). Gold is a dubious option, as Gold is priced on the dubious assumption that one day we will be forced to go back on a Gold standard... And I don't believe that we will ever go there again.
Futures less safe then spot forex? I think not. Futures transaction are guaranteed by the CME while spot is unregulated and decentralized. This risk of counter party default is ever present.
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