We are approaching VERY serious times

I notice you are always an authority on everything. I mean, who the hell is "Marber" anyway? And saying "sentiment drives the market" is merely your own opinion. Forex isn't a real speculative market anyway.

My point is, you think you have everything figured out because you don't want to admit that half of your success is out of your control.

If you ever wonder why you couldn't apply any price-pattern

Uhh seems to me that the trade, naturally in hindsight, was the top of the double top back in October of '07.

Now with all the doom and gloomers coming out of the woodwork talkin' 'bout S&P 450 is all great but what about the 800 point drop that already freakin' happened.

LOL. Speaking of opinions.

Marber's the guy that called the bear market before it happened.

Linky:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magaz...cerebral.thtml


LOL. Guess you didn't like my last reply to you. I don't "have everything figured out" and I sure don't think I do, I just take responsibility for the stuff I don't know rather than blaming the markets in order to feel better. I prefer to be in charge of my own failures, that way I can at least learn from the loss.

I also know enough to know when ppl are full of s**t, and I don't like it that new people have to come on and get lost in it all.

So I get a bit preachy from time to time because of it. I only do it because I've made so many dang mistakes I'd rather others not have to make them too. I suppose that's why I have a decent learning curve, I make more mistakes and make them faster than anyone else I've ever met... lol.

current conditions drive sentiment.
the market price is based on intrinsic value.

You can't apply bloomberg or marketwatch reports or any other national/local media to what the institutional investors are going to do in the future and expect it to be accurate.

Who said you can do this? Who on earth would expect this to be accurate? This is equivalent to someone using only a 5-minute chart to make medium-term trading decisions. This is a half-baked attempt to trade the news, which is a very risky approach, one which I would never personally attempt. You make a ridiculous statement there, friend.

Trading desks at banks will trade news releases, as they have superior analisys on hand from top economists who will immediately dissect the data and, more importantly, have knowledge of the levels where odas from the big institutions are waiting.

Personally, proper fundamental research will entail keeping up with news events (particularly those that serve as leading indicators), data releases, interest rate decisions and accompanying statements, central bank speeches, corporate results and major announcements.

It also involves measuring short and medium term correlations between various currency pairs and then establishing correlations, and monitoring price movements, of other asset classes; stocks (both stock indexes and financial sector stocks), commodities, govt bond yields, credit spreads etc).

As I am from a derivatives background, I also monitor real-time the changes in risk reversal quotes for the currency pairs I am trading. This is done in tandem with analysis I perform on the shape of the implied vol curve for various deltas and maturities. This gives a clearer idea of the market's perception of the likely path, and volatility, of currency pairs, as market-makers will quote higher implied vol on levels where buying/selling pressure from other banks/institutions is the strongest. I also use the COT report.

I also receive regular research papers from various economists - some from academic background and others from the major houses - which provide insight and a fresh perspective on conclusions that I may have reached. These reports are usually relating to the broader macro-economic picture, rather than focusing on individual currency pairs. However, this all helps with my top/down approach to investing in other asset classes and planning my long-term strategy.

In addition to the above, I always have my charts open, for various timeframes, which will show a variety of moving averages, fib grids, pivot points and trendlines.

As I have said in all my posts on this thread, I advocate a mixed approach of both technical and fundamental research to trading and investing. I find it works reasonably well for me. My original post on this thread was in response to a poster who said fundamentals don't matter, which I think is both a crazy and naive statement.

There are many different approaches to the markets and it is a case of finding what strategy works best for you, finding what gives you the slightest edge in terms of the probability of finding winning trades. The approach outlined above suits my academic and employment background, as it utilises many of the skills I have accumulated over the years.

And what drives current conditions? Possibly fundamentals....

Btw... There are many more factors to an asset's market price than intrinsic value. However, seeing as you use the term in your post, I shall advise you that the quest to ascertain intrinsic value on many assets goes to the heart of what fundamental analysis is all about, when an asset's market price diverges greatly from its perceived intrinsic value, thereby creating arbitrage or long-term value opportunities....

Guys,
A collapse seems more imminent to me!!

So where do we go now ??? the chart says down...........any takers

What chart?? What market?? Some are going up.

what??
U know the time frame u r talking about ? it's yearly!.

you can lose more than ur shirt , trying to short a yearly chart while it's reacting back on weeklies.

Know ur time frame is essential here.

yearly is good for knowing the big picture , but who can afford to trade it!, for sure not me


You need at least a year to prove u r either right or wrong or a trillion dollar acc so that u can set ur stop some light years away from ur entry

Markets will probably bounce tomorrow after dipping below 7,000. It's the most oversold many has ever seen in their life time. I'd be more biased to the upside than the downside at these levels.

People are selling on emotions lately. Also, Geitner did not give any confidence to the markets with regards to his ability to do his job. I personally don't think he is qualified for this job.

The market will "probably" be up tommorow? I've got news for you: it has a 50% chance of being down again.

Does it matter if he is when the big O can't even prove he is a US citizen?

http://www.fightthesmears.com.php5-9.../images/28.jpg

Oh yeah! Photoshop! Sorry

He's Muslim too. It's really because reverend Jeremiah Wright didn't know shit about the Quran.

Also, some may be interested to know. There's a scientific fact about Obama's "charismatic" speeches.

If you take all of his public speeches, put them together and listen to all of them backwards. It's undeniable evidence that you have way too much time on your hands.

Just for the record, I don't like the job he's been doing so far. But if you're going to attack a guy, have more solid evidence than unsubstantiated bullshit.

Sorry Jay,

I'm not the only one who does not accept his citizenship.

Best regards.

Dale

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYdk26ezVio

Some didn't accept Al Gore congratulating George W. Bush in 2000. Some didn't accept that Bush became president.

It's time for your beautiful country to accept the fact that good or bad, he's the guy in the White House. Debating his citizenship and/or faith is not going to resolve anything.

You have bigger fishes to fry.

I was just poking a little fun Jay; I bet I am not the only one.

Personally I hope he can in learn how to tie his shoes before he destroys our currency any further.


No offense intended to the dems


Best regards

Dale

Acknowledge and agonize.