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This thread is hilarious.
The US may collapse, who the hell knows, we could argue that all day long....Ignored
lets develop a system which is very very simple but effective. 7 replies
Best Times/Worst Times? 14 replies
mt4 coder needed for a very very simple system 2 replies
Disliked1) well considering that the value of many US companies has plummeted because of the pessimist outlook of traders(remember the federal government had to ban short selling on almost a 1000 companies back in 2008 because traders were selling just because everyone else was and thus killing the companies?)
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2)Most traders take a good look at their charts before opening a position, even the fundamentalists.
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4)If the charts says sell, and enough traders see it and agree, the economy tanks, regardless of weather of the fundamentals say sell too.
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I've never heard of an instance where the fundamentals keeping a security strong when the technicals said sell, but everyone has heard of technicals trumping fundamentals.Ignored
DislikedAicccia,
Be careful what absolute conclusions you come to on this issue, because it can distort your view of whats important in trading. Thinking that TA alone is all you need is mentally satisfying because it sounds so easy. The hard truth is that if you do not know what is going on in the very market you trade then those that do will find a way to extract your money from you.
You are saying that because everyone looks at a chart before they trade then the market must move because of information gained from the chart. Where you are mistaken...Ignored
QuoteDislikedFundamentals, fundamentals and more fundamentals, my friend...
DislikedYea, but none of that mattered in the bull market. The reason it took a ride to the basement was that the overall market sentiment took a dive, allowing short sellers to drive the market. In a bull market people ignore bad data, in a bear market people ignore good data. RBS was in the same leverage trouble 2 years ago, meanwhile it's stock was making new highs.Ignored
QuoteDislikedFundamentals only matter in as much as sentiment is willing to follow them. For every bad organization properly corrected in this market, there's a dozen good organizations that have had their stocks pummeled by the bear market. Are you going to tell me that companies like Wal-mart are financially unstable? Of course not, yet their stock is down from over a recent 60.
QuoteDislikedFundamentals are a road that sentiment can sometimes follow, when it wants to. There are a hundred or more chaotic things that can drive sentiment, but they don't all effect it all at the same time. So when trying to figure out "what's moving the market" you have to figure out what's driving sentiment and what isn't. Good luck with that, you're better off just flipping a coin with those odds.
At the end of the day, sentiment is king. It decides whether price goes up or down. For people that trade fundamentals... well it's only a matter of time...
QuoteDislikedShort-sellers didn't drive the market in this case, as the share price of RBS fell more after the short-selling ban was introduced than before!
QuoteDislikedSentiment shifted dramatically in realisation of shifting fundamentals.
QuoteDislikedA bad example. Chart the 12-month performance of Wal-mart against that of the DJIA. You will see it has out-performed the benchmark by 40% in that time. Why is this? Because of the strong fundamentals that support the business.
QuoteDislikedSentiment and fundamentals are not two different entities, in my opinion. Indeed, they will feed off the other and perpetuate moves in the market. The sentiment is ultra-bearish right now and this can come to no surprise to anyone that pays the smallest amount of attention to the fundamentals. Sentiment relates to confidence and confidence relates to the fundamentals.
QuoteDislikedThe side of the road is littered with as many failed technical traders as fundamental traders that have fallen by the wayside.
QuoteDislikedTechnical trading is only as good as the sentiment it recognizes.
QuoteDislikedSo is fundamental trading. I am advocating a mixed and varied approach to trading and investing, which I believe will serve one the best over the long run.
QuoteDislikedp.s. Wal-mart shares are actually flat over the past twelve months.
QuoteDislikedIt's okay to disagree, which is just as well as I think we could spend the weekend countering the other's argument without coming close to any real agreement.
DislikedUhm. Actually no. January 02, 2009 we were at 57.18. Feb 6th, 49.63. Hit a low at 46, now we're at 50. If you go back to Sept 08, we had a new high. So the stock has taken quite a hit in the last few months.
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QuoteDislikedhaha....Nice try, but I used a twelve month example in my posts...
QuoteDislikedAnyway, let's not argue about semantics.