Steviet's Live Trades! | Page 69 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Dukascopy Live Account - Don't Post if you haven't traded live with them! 117 replies

My Live Trades on my Live Account 588 replies

go live or bust ... diary of an fx live-trader-wannabe 1,621 replies

Trade 2 live accounts - one with full balance, 2nd as a live test? 0 replies

Oanda 10$ live acc quick-start guide (for newbie to trade live safe) 13 replies

Attachments: Steviet's Live Trades!
Exit Attachments

Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #1,361
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:09pm Mar 27, 2007 1:09pm
I personally like trading the GBPJPY, and i also like your trading method, so i think you should try trading the GBPJPY
The GBPJPY usually breaks into trends that i tihnk your system would do great on. If your backtests show positive results on the pair, then give it a shot.

Just be aware that this pair does hit SL of 60 and 70 all the time. I trade with an SL of 100 some, somtiems 150. But on the flip side the rewards can be great. The market looks like its taking a break from an almost 1000pip move since march 14.

Would your system have caught some of that? probably a good chuck eh.
Think about it

goodluck with your decision. Its tough one.

P.S. plz dont hate me if you try it and it doesnt work out
  • #1,362
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:11pm Mar 27, 2007 1:11pm
Hi Ken,

Thanks for taking the time as I know you don't write too much here these days.

I think one more yen pair would be enough in a portfolio of 5 for now and GJ seems quite a challenge lol. I can see what you mean from backtesting that they can eat you for lunch if you're not careful.

Thanks again my friend

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting monarch
Well done on the G/U and U/J!

I would be looking at incorporating E/J and G/J, those two pairs work in harmony most of the time, figure the one out, and you could have double the profits.

You would want to be careful with these pairs, the moves can eat you lunch if your in the wrong direction.

I have made very nice profits from these pairs since I changed my trading strategies, and departed from trading G/U only.

I also trade in shorter time frames than yourself, but your concept is working great.

Or you could just keep the two winning pairs, and dump the losers. It would be nice to have more more profits, and the goal is too cut our losses.

I personally have a very strict stop on my losses, and my profits are modest gians in most of my trades.

The main objective is too be successful in every trade, so we must consider which pairs are not working for us, and then trade those that do work with our trading strategies.

Good Luck, enjoy your thread.

Ken
  • #1,363
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:11pm Mar 27, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting steviet
Hello faithfull readers

Anyone's thoughts would be appreciated and I may just ditch the worst performing pair for starters tonight

Kind Regards
Steve

Hey Steve... Although I'm not expert, I think two rules of your system probably detracts from the overall quality of it:
- Committing to opening new trades each and every day you have any close out--irregardless of market conditions
- Committing to certain pairs on an on-going, inflexible basis

The first point can lend itself to over-trading in a non-trending environment which is where your system does the worst. The second point keeps you tied to currency pairs which may not be trending or exhibit good signal to noise levels or have trending patterns which don't suit your stop-loss trailing method (ie: currency pair may be trending, but have signal:noise levels such that you are blown out every other day anyways).

If you were to change the first point and re-enter trades when you think there is good [technical and/or fundamental] reason for a new trend then you might do much better then rigidly re-entering a market environment which doesn't suit your system.

If you were to change the second point you could pick and choose which currencies you trade as the signal:noise ratios change and market environments change in each pair.

Of course, changing these two things like this would radically alter the theory you are currently trying to test...

But I like your trading idea and journal, and this is what I modified for myself and have started forward testing with a small account. Just my 2 cents...

Take care Steve...

Johnny
  • #1,364
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:12pm Mar 27, 2007 1:12pm
Why don't you take the AUD/USD Short on the Daily and see if it will work for you.

It is a double top candle, and it looks overbought to me.

I wanted to Short this yesterday, but held myself for the next daily candle formation.

Ken
  • #1,365
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:13pm Mar 27, 2007 1:13pm
Yes, when it moves, boy does it go lol.

And no, I won't be blaming anyone other than myself if results aren't what I'm after so no worries on that score

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting nikim
I personally like trading the GBPJPY, and i also like your trading method, so i think you should try trading the GBPJPY
The GBPJPY usually breaks into trends that i tihnk your system would do great on. If your backtests show positive results on the pair, then give it a shot.

Just be aware that this pair does hit SL of 60 and 70 all the time. I trade with an SL of 100 some, somtiems 150. But on the flip side the rewards can be great. The market looks like its taking a break from an almost 1000pip move since march 14.

Would your system have caught some of that? probably a good chuck eh.
Think about it

goodluck with your decision. Its tough one.

P.S. plz dont hate me if you try it and it doesnt work out
  • #1,366
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:20pm Mar 27, 2007 1:20pm
Great first post Johnny

This method was carefully worked out so I could continue the same method when I am able to trade 'full-time'.

You see, much as I like the markets I could do without spending a lot of time in front of the pc. That would be trading in my job for another one.

The idea behind the method is that if I am in the markets all the time, then I can catch the first part of a trend and let it ride. Afterall, we never know when it will start trending - as you say, when the market is a little choppy it's not so great but I can handle that as long as I win overall.

So far, I think I'm proving I may just have something but I'm now at the stage where I've got a fair bit of live data to play with. I've made mistakes but I'm still up, which is promising.

Thanks again Johnny & best of luck

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Johnnyl
Hey Steve... Although I'm not expert, I think two rules of your system probably detracts from the overall quality of it:
- Committing to opening new trades each and every day you have any close out--irregardless of market conditions
- Committing to certain pairs on an on-going, inflexible basis

The first point can lend itself to over-trading in a non-trending environment which is where your system does the worst. The second point keeps you tied to currency pairs which may not be trending or exhibit good signal to noise levels or have trending patterns which don't suit your stop-loss trailing method (ie: currency pair may be trending, but have signal:noise levels such that you are blown out every other day anyways).

If you were to change the first point and re-enter trades when you think there is good [technical and/or fundamental] reason for a new trend then you might do much better then rigidly re-entering a market environment which doesn't suit your system.

If you were to change the second point you could pick and choose which currencies you trade as the signal:noise ratios change and market environments change in each pair.

Of course, changing these two things like this would radically alter the theory you are currently trying to test...

But I like your trading idea and journal, and this is what I modified for myself and have started forward testing with a small account. Just my 2 cents...

Take care Steve...

Johnny
  • #1,367
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:22pm Mar 27, 2007 1:22pm
It's a tempting one isn't it lol.

Trouble is, it's another dollar pair haha.

GJ on the daily looks pretty tempting too and by the way it moves I may just go for it.

Steve

Quoting monarch
Why don't you take the AUD/USD Short on the Daily and see if it will work for you.

It is a double top candle, and it looks overbought to me.

I wanted to Short this yesterday, but held myself for the next daily candle formation.

Ken
  • #1,368
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:37pm Mar 27, 2007 1:37pm
Sorry Ken - me again

Interestingly enough, both AUD/USD & NZD/USD would have been great trades during Feb where other pairs in my portfolio were having a choppy time.

Currently I trade 5 dollar pairs so maybe reducing it to 4 & adding GBPJPY may not be a bad thing.

I believe that most pairs over time will make money using my method - it's just having the right mix so I am consistent.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting steviet
It's a tempting one isn't it lol.

Trouble is, it's another dollar pair haha.

GJ on the daily looks pretty tempting too and by the way it moves I may just go for it.

Steve
  • #1,369
  • Mar 27, 2007 2:12pm Mar 27, 2007 2:12pm
steve u have brought up some big questions.

Lot to think about …glad u began to see the pattern within the results.

Many options here but don’t harm the basic plan.

  1. throw out the losing pairs and trade gbpusd and jpyusd.
  2. create a demo and test the other suggested currencies for a month and let them prove themselves before adding to the mix..


I remember a joke..about a golfer that died on the golf course, the other members of the foursome would hit the ball and drag their buddy…hit the ball and drag their buddy…..
Sorta the same thing here, the losing pairs are dragging down the group.

Don’t change ur strategy and don’t change ur solid determination…and of course, your money management is working like a charm…keep it number one in ur plan.

the combination of pairs is like a chemistry experiment...be careful...test.

river

  • #1,370
  • Mar 27, 2007 2:51pm Mar 27, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting steviet
It's a tempting one isn't it lol.

Trouble is, it's another dollar pair haha.

GJ on the daily looks pretty tempting too and by the way it moves I may just go for it.

Steve
G/J is looking short on the Daily, I took a peek at the E/U, but it is not confirming short as much as I would like too see here, the E/J is showing strong short though.

G/U is showing Short still on the Daily, this would help confirm short on the G/J, they have worked in the same direction lately, and I use both in confirming my position along with the E/U and E/J pairs.

As of now your Short on G/U is ahead 40 pips in the profit, I think you will see nice movement down now on G/U to continue your profits.

I am in with you on the G/U from yesterday, nice so far.

Ken
  • #1,371
  • Mar 27, 2007 3:21pm Mar 27, 2007 3:21pm
Well,

Thanks for all your comments

For now I've decided to ditch the 3 pairs that I haven't had success with so far.

These will be replaced by AUDUSD, NZDUSD & GBPJPY. All will be traded along with UJ & GU from the start of the new daily bar in 45 minutes or so.

The method remains the same as does everything else. GJ will be given a slightly freer reign with a 20 pip stop loss due to the higher spread. The '100' pip rule will be more in evidence with GJ too with the volatility it shows.

I don't see the point at this stage in demoing them as I believe they will perform as well (hopefully better) as the 3 pairs replaced and nothing is changing as far as rules, discipline, money management is concerned.

OK, new chapter but the same book - wish me luck

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,372
  • Mar 27, 2007 3:48pm Mar 27, 2007 3:48pm
Steve
Good luck Steve. And look out the GJ
  • #1,373
  • Mar 27, 2007 3:49pm Mar 27, 2007 3:49pm
one thing you can say about your journal, stevie, is that it's never boring!!!

i always thought you were dollar heavy to begin with, but if this is what you back-tested then i would be cautious about changing things right now. my advice would be to demo test a new basket if you can; although you said you're not to keen on this idea...

even with a new selection, you will probably have to grind out several months at a time whatever you trade - that's the nature of the beast you're dealing with.

example: lets say in any given year the markets follow the classic 80/20 (range/trend) rule. so you have 2 months when you get paid handsomely and 10 months of range activity. of that 10 months may be half (5 months) the ranges might be big enough for you to make some returns and the other half you lose or break-even. so that's 7 months of net wins and 5 months of net losses. (i'm making a lot of assumptions here i know - you're back-testing will give you a better idea of the numbers).

those losing months might be two, three or four in a row but the key is to nail the pay days and perhaps be a bit more aggressive nailing the big trends to maximize returns. this strategy is always big picture trading - make sure you never lose sight of this...

apologies if it comes off as a bit of a lecture...as always it's your call but i guess you've thought long and hard about all this anyway!

if you want to shake things up a bit then i would also consider EURCHF along with the other suggestions you have...

phew! that was a long post...now i need a lie down after all that!!! :
  • #1,374
  • Mar 27, 2007 4:37pm Mar 27, 2007 4:37pm
Steve,

I was amazed at the sudden switch. Good luck with it?

How did you determine the 3 new pairs?

Jackie
  • #1,375
  • Mar 27, 2007 4:38pm Mar 27, 2007 4:38pm
LOL,

Great advice as always (not a lecture) - as I was reading it & putting on my new trades, my computer froze - must have been the shock

Still got 4 dollar pairs but I'm hoping the mix I have now is more condusive to my trading. I'm taking a litle bit of a punt but maybe I'm better at trading GU & UJ live than the other pairs I traded. Backtesting is one thing, live trading is another.

I'm not sure 5 months is enough to draw firm conclusions but a pattern was certainly developing. I am always trying to look at the big picture and sticking to my guns but whilst I'm trading with peanuts I think these 3 new pairs will give me a change of scenery.

Unless I have a disaster month after month, I aim to continue with these 5 pairs until the end of October.

In the meantime my USDCHF got stopped out for minus 87 pips so the 2 trades still on are.....

GBPUSD short from 1.9692 (s/l 1.9713 guarantees minus 21 pips)
USDJPY long from 117.54 (s/l 117.60 guarantees plus 6 pips)

New trades....

AUDUSD short from 0.8081 (s/l 0.8119 guarantees minus 38 pips)
NZDUSD short from 0.7171 (s/l 0.7220 guarantees minus 49 pips)
GBPJPY short from 231.60 (s/l 233.22 guarantees minus 162 pips)

GJ has already carved out a range of nearly 50 pips in the few minutes since I placed the trade lol

Let's see.....

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Isotonic
one thing you can say about your journal, stevie, is that it's never boring!!!

i always thought you were dollar heavy to begin with, but if this is what you back-tested then i would be cautious about changing things right now. my advice would be to demo test a new basket if you can; although you said you're not to keen on this idea...

even with a new selection, you will probably have to grind out several months at a time whatever you trade - that's the nature of the beast you're dealing with.

example: lets say in any given year the markets follow the classic 80/20 (range/trend) rule. so you have 2 months when you get paid handsomely and 10 months of range activity. of that 10 months may be half (5 months) the ranges might be big enough for you to make some returns and the other half you lose or break-even. so that's 7 months of net wins and 5 months of net losses. (i'm making a lot of assumptions here i know - you're back-testing will give you a better idea of the numbers).

those losing months might be two, three or four in a row but the key is to nail the pay days and perhaps be a bit more aggressive nailing the big trends to maximize returns. this strategy is always big picture trading - make sure you never lose sight of this...

apologies if it comes off as a bit of a lecture...as always it's your call but i guess you've thought long and hard about all this anyway!

if you want to shake things up a bit then i would also consider EURCHF along with the other suggestions you have...

phew! that was a long post...now i need a lie down after all that!!! :
  • #1,376
  • Mar 27, 2007 4:44pm Mar 27, 2007 4:44pm
Hi Jackie,

I've backtested most of the common pairs and all seem to come out positive in the end. What I did notice however was a pattern emerging & maybe the simple fact was that I traded certain pairs better live than others.

I seem to be able to see the trades easier in GU & UJ, that's all. The actual system is as it always has been.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting coastalfx
Steve,

I was amazed at the sudden switch. Good luck with it?

How did you determine the 3 new pairs?

Jackie
  • #1,377
  • Mar 27, 2007 7:44pm Mar 27, 2007 7:44pm
Hi steve,

I always try and check your journal. Its good to see that you are going to start on new pairs. I think it's good, but I also think maybe you should still record the EUR/U and CHF/U trades as well, because that was your orginial system and perhaps these pairs will improve. You may not have to actually trade them, maybe just record the trades you would have made.

Cheers, Anthony
  • #1,378
  • Mar 27, 2007 8:03pm Mar 27, 2007 8:03pm
Hi Steve

I read about your latest changes to your currency pair mix. Unfortunately it's been a while since I've looked at a FOREX chart, I usually follow EUROFX futures and this is pretty much it. Hence, I can't provide you with my feedback about the old pairs or new pairs.

What I can provide you with, instead, is a general idea about trading.

Try to analyse your system and determine the best conditions under which it performs.

As far as I understand, your system works magic under trending conditions and struggles in choppy tight ranges, like most of the systems out there I shall say.

I believe all financial instruments have their trending days and ranging days, it's the nature of the markets and we must deal with it.

Yet, some financial instruments are more volatile and during their ranging times they still produce mini-trends that can give you enough wiggle room to have small losers, break even trades and even decent winners.

For example, my trading style doesn't match very well with low-volatility instruments, such as the S&P for instance. I do much better trading Russell 2000, DAX, or Dow Jones. Simply because the nature of my system and my personality requires that I trade highly volatile instruments.

What's the nature of your system and personality?

GBPJPY is a very volatile market for what I remember about it. Large spread and huge swings. The thing you need to ask yourself is: is it worth it? And how would my system perform when GBPJPY is in a tight range?

Don't change instruments only because one market is currently trending more than another. You know better than me that conditions change on a daily basis, and the risk is that you could find yourself dropping pairs that are about to explode and taking on others that are about to die out.

What I believe is a smart thing to do is to distribute your currency risk evenly amongst pairs. Like Isotonic said, you were a bit dollar heavy in my opinion.

In summary, trade those pairs that constantly reproduce the best trading conditions for your system and your style. Trend doesnt matter here. All markets trend at some point. I am talking about pure price action.

If GBPJPY falls into your favorite category, then trade it. Same with other pairs.

Cheers
  • #1,379
  • Mar 27, 2007 9:45pm Mar 27, 2007 9:45pm
Stevie!!! What's happened to the 12 month plan, with discipline and patience...


But seriously, I'm not averse to change and you've beaten me to the gun anyway, as I had committed to myself to revisit the pairs at the end of this month. I'll be making some decisions over the weekend on whether to make any changes personally, and/or even some tweaks to the rules....maybe

As you know from my blog, I am currently allocating (a mere) 0.5% of risk capital to each of the five pairs (plus the extra four that I am demo-ing). To make this clear for readers, this means trade sizes differ each time, depending on the initial distance to stop from entry.

What is really interesting is how the $ returns compare to the pips made or lost, and I have to say, just looking at pip results is very deceiving.

I know its only for a month, but here's my pip count for the main 5 pairs, compared with a (notional) $ return for closed trades so far this month, and the win/loss counts as well. Notional returns are all converted to USD, to give the true picture, as, of course, pips are not equal across the pairs.

GBP/USD ...... +281 pips, +$10.6, 3 wins/3 losses
EUR/USD ...... +5 pips, +$8.7, 2 wins/5 losses
USD/CHF ...... +83 pips, +$5.4, 4 wins/5 losses
USD/JPY ...... -14 pips, +$6.4, 2 wins/5 losses
USD/CAD ..... -11 pips, -$1.0, 3 wins/3 losses

Ok, while I'm at it, here are the other 4 as well.......

AUD/USD ...... +234 pips, +$4.8, 2 wins/2 losses
NZD/USD ...... + 78 pips, +$2.4, 2 wins/4 losses
GBP/JPY ....... + 340 pips, +$5.8, 3 wins,6 losses
EUR/JPY ....... +92 pips, +$4.8, 4 wins, 4 losses

So you can see, the glamour puss of the famous five, Cable, looks great on pips, but compare that to EUR's returns, on only a measly 5 pips.

You can even lose pips on nippy, but make good money!!

And the Loonie isn't a bird - its a dog..... say no more.

Just some food for thought.....

regards

Xerof
  • #1,380
  • Mar 28, 2007 12:11am Mar 28, 2007 12:11am
Well today it looks like selecting to trade gbpjpy seems very very prosperous. Kepp up the good work.
1 trader viewing now