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Attachments: We are approaching VERY serious times
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We are approaching VERY serious times

  • #61
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:12am Feb 19, 2009 5:12am
I remember post similar to those about a recovery from the H'nS on DJ... 4000 point ago...
  • #62
  • Feb 19, 2009 4:17pm Feb 19, 2009 4:17pm
As much as you can laugh at charts and all the patterns but if you look at a weekly long term chart it's the history of us......

what we have is the tech bubble to the high then the crash. the bounce came at the 800 area in 2003. we then had the bull of 2004 to 2007 the subprime credit bubble. the sell off from 2008 to now was the aftermarth of that.

now we're back at the area that is also a fib point 61.8. I hope we have a rally cuz the S&P500 at 500 means many businesses will be gone.

Again I have to stress this needs to be confirmed and that could take a few weeks or months.

Cheers
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  • #63
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:01pm Feb 19, 2009 5:01pm
Quoting Rabid
Bullpucky. The "fooled you with randomness" line is codespeak for "I failed at finding a decent edge, so I just wanted to blame my failures on the market rather than myself." The market, especially at these higher time frames, is far from random. That argument is so tired and full of holes I'm amazed anyone still buys into it. Need proof? Look to the distribution of price.

Charts like this tell a story of sentiment. Yes, sentiment can change (altho it makes it pretty clear when it does), but unless it changes... ick. The chart doesn't force...
Nicely said. People with exceptional skills in one field (i.e math) may have trouble facing that they didn't fully grasp another situation (i.e pattern-recognizing). The easiest (typical human) solution would be to blame something else instead of looking into their own abilities. A friend of mine is a perfect example here, and I think it wouldn't be too hard finding examples here on FF too.

I'm tempted to blame online forums like this for giving many misconceptions regarding price-patterns but formus are nothing more than a two-bladed sword. There are one gem even here on FF but so very few have heard of it yet mastered it, even with all the efforts from the creator. Practicing and even more important profiting from patterns isn't done with scrolling back on your chart trying to apply a triangle or H&S. Years of practicing with the RIGHT knowledge and live trading might help. And no mathematical knowledge in the world can make you a successful trader without those other famous (cliché-ones, you know) abilities needed

Patterns representing higher probabilities than 50% when it comes either weather cycles, financial markets or social trends have existed for 100's of years. Why is price-patterns such a big deal, like it's something magical ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #64
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:00pm Feb 19, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting Jay Walker

Green bubble anyone?
Green is my favorite color.

I know green will be the next big thing. Although I don't think that it is a bubble that could burst. The whole green economy idea would work very well and likely get us out of this situation if they ever get to it.
It takes me 1.5 bars on the M1 chart to eat a pancake.
  • #65
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:50pm Feb 19, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting aediaz1
Patterns representing higher probabilities than 50% when it comes either weather cycles, financial markets or social trends have existed for 100's of years. Why is price-patterns such a big deal, like it's something magical ?
Very nicely said yourself.
  • #66
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:58pm Feb 19, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting JimmyPants
Green is my favorite color...

Love your avatar Jimmy, nice fro
  • #67
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:00pm Feb 19, 2009 7:00pm
Quoting JimmyPants
Green is my favorite color.

I know green will be the next big thing. Although I don't think that it is a bubble that could burst. The whole green economy idea would work very well and likely get us out of this situation if they ever get to it.
A bubble would be nice. But it's like methadone to a heroin addict. The solution is temporary.

The housing bubble wasn't suppose to burst. Everyone needs to buy a home after all.

The dotcom bubble was a bubble that wasn't supposed to burst. Everybody needs to buy something and prefer to do it from home after all.

The automotive bubble wasn't supposed to burst. Everybody in the world will need a car. Hundreds of car manufacturers have come and gone between 1800 and 2008. America now has 3...and not very good ones. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._manufacturers

The railroad bubble wasn't supposed to burst. Railroads will need to get everywhere and have to be maintained...

The tulip mania....

A green bubble would be nice but just like any other bubble, speculative, soapy or otherwise, it will eventually burst.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #68
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:07pm Feb 19, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting tdion
it would also make sense that many people are listening to voices in their heads, because often a chart talking is simply saying "I just fooled you with randomness....."

Still frustrated I see.
  • #69
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:13pm Feb 19, 2009 7:13pm
Quoting Jay Walker
A bubble would be nice. But it's like methadone to a heroin addict. The solution is temporary.

The housing bubble wasn't suppose to burst. Everyone needs to buy a home after all.

The dotcom bubble was a bubble that wasn't supposed to burst. Everybody needs to buy something and prefer to do it from home after all....
The green economy would not be reliant on just one thing.

The green stuff wouldn't be a bubble (in the traditional sense) Green tech etc. can be applied to everything, not just singular things such as homes or cars or tulips lol (IK BEN GEK!) A huge amount of new business' jobs, products, and services can be created for every facet of life.

It's a bit more complex than a simple post on a board can convey but it's the solution we need.
It takes me 1.5 bars on the M1 chart to eat a pancake.
  • #70
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:02pm Feb 19, 2009 8:02pm
Quoting JimmyPants
The green economy would not be reliant on just one thing.

The green stuff wouldn't be a bubble (in the traditional sense) Green tech etc. can be applied to everything, not just singular things such as homes or cars or tulips lol (IK BEN GEK!) A huge amount of new business' jobs, products, and services can be created for every facet of life.

It's a bit more complex than a simple post on a board can convey but it's the solution we need.
Surely is a solution we need, but I agree with Jay. A bubble will always be created, and it will always burst. Driven by greed, as usual.
  • #71
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:48pm Feb 19, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting JimmyPants
The green economy would not be reliant on just one thing.

The green stuff wouldn't be a bubble (in the traditional sense) Green tech etc. can be applied to everything, not just singular things such as homes or cars or tulips lol (IK BEN GEK!) A huge amount of new business' jobs, products, and services can be created for every facet of life.

It's a bit more complex than a simple post on a board can convey but it's the solution we need.
A speculative bubble is never about just one thing and by the time something has developed into a bubble, it is never about the thing(s) itself anyway. The people back in the tulipmania days certainly didn't care about the tulips, it was just a means to an end, to make the sucker after you pay more than what you paid. Thats the way bubbles work.

Greentech innovation, if it does develop and catch on, will sooner or later evolve into a new vehicle for greed, and the original reasons for which it was developed for would simply be forgotten in the blind rush for a quick buck.

For the moment though greentech is still considered uneconomical not to mention all the energy company execs are making the politicians veto green bills. I'd say, wait until energy prices are uncomfortably high before you start dreaming about a sustained wave of green enthusiasm.
  • #72
  • Feb 19, 2009 9:01pm Feb 19, 2009 9:01pm
markets are easy...when everyone is about to jump out the window...start buying. I think we are close!.
Also, the only jobs green technology will produce is lawn mowing. What a joke. I would rather have the us stop the chinese from dumping there goods on us. Yeah, along with that iraq pullout!.
  • #73
  • Feb 19, 2009 9:30pm Feb 19, 2009 9:30pm
Nope....

I'm hoping for a very prosperous '09 but am not counting my chickens until they hatch....

Quoting clockwork71
Still frustrated I see.
  • #74
  • Feb 19, 2009 11:54pm Feb 19, 2009 11:54pm
Quoting Rabid
Bullpucky. The "fooled you with randomness" line is codespeak for "I failed at finding a decent edge, so I just wanted to blame my failures on the market rather than myself."
The whole time I was reading that book that was the impression I was getting. A guy pissed off that people he deemed less intelligent than him were making more money (of course some of them blew up).

I only read half the book and put it on the shelf. Really hard book to read when you don't believe the idea that success is more attributed to luck than hard (smart) work and persistence.
  • #75
  • Feb 20, 2009 12:09am Feb 20, 2009 12:09am
@rabid

Do you take credit for the unforseen?

Do you feel like a sucker for buying at the top of the real estate boom? (not saying you did)

Do you feel like a sucker for losing half your 401K last year? (not saying you did)


Do you take credit for every losing trade?

Do you take credit for every losing week? month? year?


The worst line ever written (IMHO) is "You take what you want from the market." THAT is the joke. The market gives what it gives, and takes what it takes. Your idea about sentiment can (and does) change without warning.... and your confidence that statistics will make you a winner is nothing more than theory.

Of course, I am not bashing your beliefs. I just have my own.
  • #76
  • Feb 20, 2009 1:12am Feb 20, 2009 1:12am
Quote
Do you take credit for the unforseen?

I take credit for my ability, or lack there-of in many cases, to forsee what should be obvious to me.

Quote
Do you feel like a sucker for buying at the top of the real estate boom? (not saying you did)

I didn't. Furthermore, buying into a bubble is always bad. It should've been obvious (and was to many people) that it would eventually collapse. If you had saved your money you now could get a home for a fraction of the cost.

Bubbles don't provide a long term breakout opportunity, they provide a long term mean-regression opportunity. Again, obvious.

Quote
Do you feel like a sucker for losing half your 401K last year? (not saying you did)

I closed all of my active positions (mostly index funds) in November and December of 08. It was blindingly obvious that the market was going to tumble, so I went cash. I didn't expect it to go quite this far (figured DOW 10k or so) but the results are the same either way.

I have not yet gotten a reversal signal, and have not begun getting back in. When I do, I'll begin averaging back in. I check it weekly.

Quote
Do you take credit for every losing trade?

Yes, absolutely. Especially if I did something I shouldn't, or didn't do something I should. I usually write out my thoughts on such trades so I can remember them.

Some losses happen as part of my approach. Even tho I didn't "do anything wrong" on those trades, I still take responsibility for the approach that led to the loss. I think it's important to take personal responsibility where due, bad or good.

Quote
Do you take credit for every losing week? month? year?

Have not had a losing month or a losing year. Have had a losing week, and yes I took credit for it because it was my fault. I remember it vividly, I wasn't feeling well, was trading my head and not the market and should've taken the week off.

Quote
The worst line ever written (IMHO) is "You take what you want from the market." THAT is the joke. The market gives what it gives, and takes what it takes. Your idea about sentiment can (and does) change without warning.... and your confidence that statistics will make you a winner is nothing more than theory.

You assume that because the market gives what it wants, you can't be selective. Just because the market is moving doesn't mean you have to be trading. Wait for the market to come to you, it'll still be there tomorrow. I don't use statistics to trade, altho I do use them to clue in on and test out patterns (trust but verify, lol). Instead I trade patterns that reflect the market's psychology.

Someone on here was kind enough to post LBR's recent webinar. Go find it, listen to the .MP3s first and then read the PDF. Good info there, she goes into some patterns that she's found (like range contraction and expansion, impulse pullbacks, several others). As always, worth the time.
  • #77
  • Edited 2:08am Feb 20, 2009 1:58am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting dragon77
Please look at 30 year S&P chart !!

Now i am a Tech trader and the " M " pattern is usually VERY BEARISH................coupled with the MACD ................USA to collapse ???
Who will dare to sell at bottom of market where people are waiting for buying oprtunity at mouth watering prices.
Other than traders there are Big guy waiting for increasing there stock holding in some company's where they are looking for take overs..this is good Oprtunity for them for increasing there stake holding in good company.
We see "M" on chart...and in no time it can get converted in to "Double bottom" and then shoot comes very heavy.....
Better wait and watch...and be aware of head fake moves.

What you will say about USD strength...does it reflect fundamentals ?
USD is suppose to go in hell....but it is Sky rocking...where is fundamentales...
  • #78
  • Feb 20, 2009 2:36am Feb 20, 2009 2:36am
Thinking that fundamentals drive the market is like thinking that the road drives the car. Sentiment drives the market.
  • #79
  • Feb 20, 2009 2:42am Feb 20, 2009 2:42am
Quoting Rabid
Thinking that fundamentals drive the market is like thinking that the road drives the car. Sentiment drives the market.
You made my day. Cant agree more
  • #80
  • Feb 20, 2009 3:39am Feb 20, 2009 3:39am
Tom, perhaps you're mixing up the quote from Seykota which was, "Everyone gets what they want from the markets." He was referring to emotional issues, not money.
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