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  • #1,341
  • Mar 26, 2007 2:42pm Mar 26, 2007 2:42pm
Ouch,

Only just got in as I was at my Great Aunt's funeral today - she was 99 so had what we would say in England as a 'good innings'.

When I left this morning my trades were sitting very pretty but it appears the US housing data has poured water on the fire so to speak.

GBPUSD has been stopped out for minus 89 pips but the other trades are still hanging on in there (just).

The other trades were all well in profit earlier but apart from UCAD (never seems to be affected like the others) are now struggling. UJ has come back to over 118 again and s/l can be brought to break even.

I've half a mind to short GU again later as it has struggled to break 1.9720 today as well as a couple of days ago. To me it would be a fairly low risk trade and it looks like it may be topping out for now.

Disappointing day all in all but still up over 5% this month.

March pips: +384
Cumulative since Nov 06: +1443

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,342
  • Mar 26, 2007 3:17pm Mar 26, 2007 3:17pm
Sorry to hear your Great Aunt passed away. Guess 99 years may well be considered as a 'whole life' and somewhat also 'above average' for us humans - hope she lived every minute of it, and sure she's in a better place now!

Unfortunately the homesales news strongly reverted the 'trend' in most currencies hitting on S/L. Guess as also in life, some losses are inevitable, but help us become aware of where we stand before moving on.
Enter Signature
  • #1,343
  • Mar 26, 2007 3:38pm Mar 26, 2007 3:38pm
Thanks for your kind words. My mother's side of the family all seem to make it to a ripe old age - another Great Aunt was 102 & even going back two more generations, both my Great Grandfather & his father made it to their late 90's which was very rare back then.

Back to the trading, the dollar has bounced back a little after the news although this could be just profit taking, especially on EU & GU. However, 4 of 5 trades are still on and 1.9720-30 is looking like tough resistence on GU.

King Regards
Steve

Quoting Bandana
Sorry to hear your Great Aunt passed away. Guess 99 years may well be considered as a 'whole life' and somewhat also 'above average' for us humans - hope she lived every minute of it, and sure she's in a better place now!

Unfortunately the homesales news strongly reverted the 'trend' in most currencies hitting on S/L. Guess as also in life, some losses are inevitable, but help us become aware of where we stand before moving on.
  • #1,344
  • Mar 26, 2007 4:01pm Mar 26, 2007 4:01pm
OK, end of 'one of those' days lol. 4 trades still on although stop losses were nearly hit on 2 of them. Have managed to tighten slightly on all but EU...

USDCAD long from 1.1608 (s/l 1.1584 guarantees minus 24 pips)
EURUSD short from 1.3283 (s/l 1.3353 guarantees minus 70 pips)
USDCHF long from 1.2195 (s/l 1.2108 guarantees minus 87 pips)
USDJPY long from 117.54 (s/l 117.54 guarantees b/even)

USDCAD - currently plus 4 pips - has hit a high of 1.1630 & low of 1.1584 after US news - now stabalised just above my initial entry.

EURUSD - currently minus 48 pips - hit low of 1.3253 before housing data but resistence around 1.3340/50 so far holding.

USDCHF - currently minus 40 pips - hit high of 1.2230 but plummeted & bounced at 1.2118.

USDJPY - currently plus 57 pips - has recovered to end the day slightly higher.

New trade.....

GBPUSD short from 1.9692 (s/l 1.9731 guarantees minus 39 pips)

Again 1.9720/25 resistence holding firm so far both today & last Thursday - this has overriden the candlestick formation as to me this is a far lower risk trade.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.....

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,345
  • Mar 26, 2007 4:20pm Mar 26, 2007 4:20pm
My condolences Steve.


--

You're a brave soul to be buying dollars on all three majors after today.
Still have a piece of EURUSD short from the weekly PB retrace, too, but to be honest I don't have much hope for it - we're staying far too strong.
If 1.2100 goes in USDCHF I'd assume the other 2 are goners as well (1.9730 for cable, 1.3350 for EURUSD).

Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,346
  • Mar 26, 2007 4:25pm Mar 26, 2007 4:25pm
So true on Gbp/Usd, 1.9700 has not allowed many candles to open above the line, and it has reached the 1.9723 and 1.9727 in the past 3 Daily Candles for a Double Top.

We shall see if it goes down from the 9700 area, I am with you on this trade.

Thanks,

Ken
  • #1,347
  • Mar 26, 2007 4:31pm Mar 26, 2007 4:31pm
Thanks for your condolences,

The only actual new trade is the GU one, the others are held over from yesterday when all was looking so good. As s/l were not hit, they continue as per plan but I am not especially confident I must say.

Kind Regards
Steve


Quoting SeekingLight
My condolences Steve.


--

You're a brave soul to be buying dollars on all three majors after today.
Still have a piece of EURUSD short from the weekly PB retrace, too, but to be honest I don't have much hope for it - we're staying far too strong.
If 1.2100 goes in USDCHF I'd assume the other 2 are goners as well (1.9730 for cable, 1.3350 for EURUSD).

Take care,

SeekingLight
  • #1,348
  • Mar 26, 2007 4:38pm Mar 26, 2007 4:38pm
Hi again Ken,

Yup, I thought it was worth taking as an initial stop loss of less than 40 pips is pretty low risk on my method.

GU continues to be my best pair despite February and it does seem to 'double top' or 'double bottom' more than the other pairs. Stop loss may be too tight but those are my rules.

On the other hand, the bulls may push it through from here but that right hand side of the chart is not easy to trade

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting monarch
So true on Gbp/Usd, 1.9700 has not allowed many candles to open above the line, and it has reached the 1.9723 and 1.9727 in the past 3 Daily Candles for a Double Top.

We shall see if it goes down from the 9700 area, I am with you on this trade.

Thanks,

Ken
  • #1,349
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:20pm Mar 26, 2007 7:20pm
Well, between u and me…I had my “steve” trades on(Sunday nite) and was enjoying up +pips and I started thinking…hmmmmmmmmmm I know steve will probably catch a great trend and win big…but gee…I like the looks of these +pips, so I exited grabbing winners!! this am.

..then my internet connection crumbled this morning and I spent 3 hours working to get back up and running. I discovered the market had turned on the housing news and my exit…grab and run decision had been a good thing.

I am now back in “steve” trades this evening.

Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Price Commission R/O Swap Trade P/L
4440997 2007/03/26 20:45 buy 0.50 gbpusd 1.9694 1.9560 0.0000 1.9684 0.00 -0.20 -50.00
4440998 2007/03/26 20:48 buy 0.50 eurusd 1.3331 1.3243 0.0000 1.3331 0.00 -3.02 0.00
4440999 2007/03/26 20:49 buy 0.50 usdjpy 118.15 117.29 0.00 118.22 0.00 6.75 29.61
4441002 2007/03/26 20:53 sell 0.50 usdchf 1.2153 1.2240 0.0000 1.2163 0.00 -4.70 -41.11

usdcad daily seems at a moment of indecision and I can not decide the direction???

Not sure I am reading the signals yet but think I am following the strategy.

Spent the weekend reading steve nison`s book on candle patterns down by the river. Still--- in the heat of the moment can not figure out bullish and bearish…or what each candle might be telling us. Will work on it.

I am midway through all the posts on this thread. Steve`s money management and the powerful will to follow the plan have been very inspiring. (in the last month, I had abandoned a strategy and journal, but just might demo both Steve`s strat and revive the journal and the 6/42 strat !!!)

thanks Steve for sharing ur journey
river
  • #1,350
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:31am Mar 27, 2007 1:31am
OK,

USDCAD was stopped out overnight for minus 24 pips. Not entirely surprising this one.

March pips: +360
Cumulative: +1419

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,351
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:19am Mar 27, 2007 6:19am
Just in for lunch - how annoying is that? Stopped out by a news spike two days running lol.

EU short stopped out at 1.3353 for minus 70 pips.

Current trades open...

USDJPY long from 117.54 - currently plus 77 pips
USDCHF long from 1.2195 - currently minus 51 pips
GBPUSD short from 1.9692 - currently plus 44 pips

March pips: +290
Cumulative from Nov 06: +1349

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,352
  • Mar 27, 2007 12:26pm Mar 27, 2007 12:26pm
Hello faithfull readers

I've had a thought (dangerous I know) lol......

So far in my 5 months live trading as a newbie I've made 1349 pips after losses trading the five pairs. Now, as time goes on a pattern is emerging & I would like your thoughts.

I'm not sure if I have enough data yet but let's look at the facts for each of the 5 pairs I currently trade.

GBPUSD - plus 951 pips
USDJPY - plus 551 pips
USDCAD - minus 24 pips
EURUSD - minus 53 pips
USDCHF - minus 76 pips (plus a current s/l risking 87 pips)

So, if I had just traded GU & UJ, I would have been up over 1500 pips and still have had 4 out of five positive months. In fact, February (my worst month) UJ was the only positive pair and would have reduced my losses.

Now, assuming I have enough data I could do a few things.

1. Just trade GU & UJ for the final 6 months with a % risk that I would have used for the whole 5 pairs.

or

2. Replace the 3 duffers with other pairs to see how we do over the next 6/7 months.

or

3. Carry on as I have done with the same 5 pairs (maybe I don't have enough live data yet).

There are other combinations of the above too, but let's just stick with these for now.

I would love to try this method out on GBPJPY as on backtesting it would give the most pips if traded properly - as long as I can handle the odd bigger loss as it is more volatile. The other big mover is GBPCHF but I'm not sure I want 3 GBP pairs in my portfolio.

Anyone's thoughts would be appreciated and I may just ditch the worst performing pair for starters tonight

Kind Regards
Steve


  • #1,353
  • Mar 27, 2007 12:43pm Mar 27, 2007 12:43pm
Hi Steve,

How about replacing USDCHF with EURAUD? Did you test your method on this pair? I'm wondering if you have too many closely correlated pairs (cable/fiber/swissy) and swissy is the least trendy from these.
Or, may be start using GBPJPY instead or swissy?

Best Regards,
Den
  • #1,354
  • Mar 27, 2007 12:47pm Mar 27, 2007 12:47pm
Thanks Den,

Yes, EURAUD is one I've thought about as well - the spread is 15 pips with my b/ker and with GJ it is 9 pips.

I may have to look at placing stop losses slightly higher if I were to trade these pairs - one of the main reasons for choosing the 5 I did was the spread.

Thanks for your input

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting denonline
Hi Steve,

How about replacing USDCHF with EURAUD? Did you test your method on this pair? I'm wondering if you have too many closely correlated pairs (cable/fiber/swissy) and swissy is the least trendy from these.
Or, may be start using GBPJPY instead or swissy?

Best Regards,
Den
  • #1,355
  • Mar 27, 2007 12:57pm Mar 27, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting steviet
Hello faithfull readers

I've had a thought (dangerous I know) lol......

So far in my 5 months live trading as a newbie I've made 1349 pips after losses trading the five pairs. Now, as time goes on a pattern is emerging & I would like your thoughts.

I'm not sure if I have enough data yet but let's look at the facts for each of the 5 pairs I currently trade.

GBPUSD - plus 951 pips
USDJPY - plus 551 pips
USDCAD - minus 24 pips
EURUSD - minus 53 pips
USDCHF - minus 76 pips (plus a current s/l risking 87 pips)

So, if I had just traded GU & UJ, I would have been up over 1500 pips and still have had 4 out of five positive months. In fact, February (my worst month) UJ was the only positive pair and would have reduced my losses.

Now, assuming I have enough data I could do a few things.

1. Just trade GU & UJ for the final 6 months with a % risk that I would have used for the whole 5 pairs.

or

2. Replace the 3 duffers with other pairs to see how we do over the next 6/7 months.

or

3. Carry on as I have done with the same 5 pairs (maybe I don't have enough live data yet).

There are other combinations of the above too, but let's just stick with these for now.

I would love to try this method out on GBPJPY as on backtesting it would give the most pips if traded properly - as long as I can handle the odd bigger loss as it is more volatile. The other big mover is GBPCHF but I'm not sure I want 3 GBP pairs in my portfolio.

Anyone's thoughts would be appreciated and I may just ditch the worst performing pair for starters tonight

Kind Regards
Steve


tough call. If i were you, i would just split my account into two, one trading just the majors and the other just the crosses. This is what i'm actually doing, my wife's account is focusing on just majors and i do the crosses. So far, her gains are much bigger since i started this switch this month. This way you are diversified somehow. Because what if you switched to crosses, and all of sudden they change (like gbpjpy suddenly stayed relatively flat or ranging), and eurousd suddenly become the trend master. You would say, dang, i wished i wouldve stayed with the eurousd

The thing is, market conditions change. For GBPJPY last year or so it didn't move as much as this year or late last year. that's why i would say have multiple accounts where each focus on different markets

I don't know if your broker offers subaccounts like oanda
  • #1,356
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:00pm Mar 27, 2007 1:00pm
I have long position open from last night with EUR/AUD.

Seems the AUD/USD RSI is pretty oversold and it has not been able to crack
the .8110 Resitance. If the EURO can hold its own and you have a decent AUD sell off it should run pretty good.

Also, check the 4 Hour Stochatics it just started to trend up as had been riding the bottom for quite some time and maybe at the bottom of a huge downtrend.
  • #1,357
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:01pm Mar 27, 2007 1:01pm
Well done on the G/U and U/J!

I would be looking at incorporating E/J and G/J, those two pairs work in harmony most of the time, figure the one out, and you could have double the profits.

You would want to be careful with these pairs, the moves can eat you lunch if your in the wrong direction.

I have made very nice profits from these pairs since I changed my trading strategies, and departed from trading G/U only.

I also trade in shorter time frames than yourself, but your concept is working great.

Or you could just keep the two winning pairs, and dump the losers. It would be nice to have more more profits, and the goal is too cut our losses.

I personally have a very strict stop on my losses, and my profits are modest gians in most of my trades.

The main objective is too be successful in every trade, so we must consider which pairs are not working for us, and then trade those that do work with our trading strategies.

Good Luck, enjoy your thread.

Ken
  • #1,358
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:04pm Mar 27, 2007 1:04pm
Great Journal BTW!!
  • #1,359
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:04pm Mar 27, 2007 1:04pm
Thanks for your comments hilmy

Yes, my b/k does offer that facility, however I don't really want to trade more than 5 pairs total. I think I may be a little 'dollar heavy' (Iso (smart man), pointed this out in one of the first pages lol.

My slight concern is that I may not have enough live data yet, but then again how much is enough? Bear in mind I'm in the market all the time.

During part of last year GJ would have been very difficult to trade without pulling my hair out but overall it was more than comparable to GU because of the big moves it makes.

Hmmmm

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting hilmy83
tough call. If i were you, i would just split my account into two, one trading just the majors and the other just the crosses. This is what i'm actually doing, my wife's account is focusing on just majors and i do the crosses. So far, her gains are much bigger since i started this switch this month. This way you are diversified somehow. Because what if you switched to crosses, and all of sudden they change (like gbpjpy suddenly stayed relatively flat or ranging), and eurousd suddenly become the trend master. You would say, dang, i wished i wouldve stayed with the eurousd

The thing is, market conditions change. For GBPJPY last year or so it didn't move as much as this year or late last year. that's why i would say have multiple accounts where each focus on different markets

I don't know if your broker offers subaccounts like oanda
  • #1,360
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:07pm Mar 27, 2007 1:07pm
Yes, AUDUSD would be a sell for me on the daily & EUR/AUD looks like it may have bottomed out.

Quoting Rosco_P
I have long position open from last night with EUR/AUD.

Seems the AUD/USD RSI is pretty oversold and it has not been able to crack
the .8110 Resitance. If the EURO can hold its own and you have a decent AUD sell off it should run pretty good.

Also, check the 4 Hour Stochatics it just started to trend up as had been riding the bottom for quite some time and maybe at the bottom of a huge downtrend.
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