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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #161,481
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:37pm Feb 19, 2009 7:37pm
Quoting quecee5


eventually reality will set in and people will realize and ask themselves the question "how in the hell are we going to pay for this" - answer: RAISE TAXES!
I'm very concerned about this, especially when this will come into direct conflict with the stimulus package/tax breaks.

California, the crown jewel of the US economy, has already realised this and it seems that Big Arnie is gonna have to don a tutu and show his "economic girlie-man" side when he finally realised that perpetual deficits will explode in your face one day. Tax hikes, budget cuts.....humble pie Arnie? Sorry you can't afford it.
  • #161,482
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:38pm Feb 19, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting pkimnyc
hi q,

any thoughts on eu?
i see a morning star pattern in daily chart.
I'm on the sidelines with that one because it could go either way. . .
The fact that the up wave after bottoming at 1.25 looks imlulsive leads me to believe there could be a short-term bottom there for now. . .

also, the gap from earlier this week hasn't been closed leads me to believe there is more upside forthcoming. If price gets back above 1.2650 and consolidate there we could see it close the gap. ..

I favor short due to the fact it was rejected by 4hr 55 ema, however daily gann sits at ar'd 1.29 area which is slightly above the gap.

also, price is above 4hr gann at 1.2590 area but could be retested in the short-term. I will monitor this and if i see support there I will go long for a re-test of 55 ema and possibly daily gann hi/lo. .. watching this one for now.

what's your take bro?
  • #161,483
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:49pm Feb 19, 2009 7:49pm
Quoting Eulogy
I'm very concerned about this, especially when this will come into direct conflict with the stimulus package/tax breaks.

California, the crown jewel of the US economy, has already realised this and it seems that Big Arnie is gonna have to don a tutu and show his "economic girlie-man" side when he finally realised that perpetual deficits will explode in your face one day. Tax hikes, budget cuts.....humble pie anyone? Sorry you can't afford it.
agreed!
even with Obama's stimulus plan the metric data won't show a significant difference for years.

the numbers will continue to be posted showing worst than expected data and it won't be until then the market realize we are digging ourselves in a deeper hole/debt and some how some way we are going to have to pay for this crap.

again answer RAISE TAXES and down goes the dollar. the only other way is to print more money and if that happens the dollar won't be worth the paper its printed on. china has already warned that if their investment is not protected that they will start selling/liquidating those assets which will affect equities even more. . .
  • #161,484
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:52pm Feb 19, 2009 7:52pm
made some loosing trades. and had to take a break.
i'm back now hopefully more disciplined.
  • #161,485
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:55pm Feb 19, 2009 7:55pm
Quoting quecee5
pkimnyc -

what are u seeing bro?


weekly macd is climbing, and once price breaks the 137.40 area will open the door to 141, 155 then 165 ~ 167 area.

rally we had this week is not a promising up move and keeps getting rejected @ weekly gann and daily 50 ema.

as long as we don't take out the high of 137.40, my bias is abc down.

right now, 1 hr chart looks to be developing a bullish HD, so will have to see how high it goes.

trading very carefully this week.

only took 1 trade this week.
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  • #161,486
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:03pm Feb 19, 2009 8:03pm
GU has already completed a 50 fib retrace and GJ is stuck right above the 23 fib...could 134 be all the retrace we see before further upwards movement???
  • #161,487
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:03pm Feb 19, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting quecee5
I'm on the sidelines with that one because it could go either way. . .
The fact that the up wave after bottoming at 1.25 looks imlulsive leads me to believe there could be a short-term bottom there for now. . .

also, the gap from earlier this week hasn't been closed leads me to believe there is more upside forthcoming. If price gets back above 1.2650 and consolidate there we could see it close the gap....
thanks for your insight bro.

i'm watching u/chf chart carefully as this pair seems to be little more clear.
looks like u/chf is forming a rising wedge in daily. once the price breaks downstairs, i think eu will rise.
  • #161,488
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:07pm Feb 19, 2009 8:07pm
my macd is showing bearish divergence indicative of a move down. . .
but the fact that we have interim support below at 133/132 area has me cautious. also, if UJ maintains it's bullish nature the down move could be be limited.

Too early to call for a reversal just yet but all the signs are there that price is being pressured for at least some profit taking in the short-term.

Only a break back above 1hr gann will change my view. If i see 4hr 5 sma cross below gann hi/lo and a re-test of this resistance I will be adding more shorts in the short-term for at least a test of 4hr 55 ema at 132 area.

plan to take profits on those shorts and let my shorts up top run. . .
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  • #161,489
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:20pm Feb 19, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting cancunkev
GU has already completed a 50 fib retrace and GJ is stuck right above the 23 fib...could 134 be all the retrace we see before further upwards movement???
here is a naked chart of gu i've been watching. . . this could play out either way which will have a direct effect on GJ along with UJ which seems poised to test 94.60 resistance. . .

depends on if gu want to test support below at 1.4140 area then 1.4040 area. a 4hr close above 55 ema will negate any down move and thus push GJ up to test 137 area.

PA has to be taken with caution as price is in the decision mode currently. lots of factors to consider.

that's why the gj 1hr chart will be critical. if price gets back above 1hr gann hi/lo then longs will be back in play but if and only of price can get back above 134.50 support now turned resistance.
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  • #161,490
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:28pm Feb 19, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting cancunkev
GU has already completed a 50 fib retrace and GJ is stuck right above the 23 fib...could 134 be all the retrace we see before further upwards movement???
gj 1hr chart bro. . .
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  • #161,491
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:30pm Feb 19, 2009 8:30pm
thanks for the analysis q very helpfull
  • #161,492
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:35pm Feb 19, 2009 8:35pm
Quoting NwFXenthsist
thanks for the analysis q very helpfull
  • #161,493
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:40pm Feb 19, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting pkimnyc


weekly macd is climbing, and once price breaks the 137.40 area will open the door to 141, 155 then 165 ~ 167 area.

rally we had this week is not a promising up move and keeps getting rejected @ weekly gann and daily 50 ema.

as long as we don't take out the high of 137.40, my bias is abc down.

right now, 1 hr chart looks to be developing a bullish HD, so will have to see how high it goes.

trading very carefully this week.

only took 1 trade this week.

do not worry I made enough trades for the both of us .... my borker must love me .. average of 12 per day ....

4 hour gj has pin bar on her .... 133.75 is key .. break of this we could see channel low of yesterday at about 131.20 zone.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #161,494
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:40pm Feb 19, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting shelby
made some loosing trades. and had to take a break.
i'm back now hopefully more disciplined.
Welcome back... don't give up... I have been there believe me.
  • #161,495
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:41pm Feb 19, 2009 8:41pm
putting my 2 cents at 133,72

if the ex resistance area, now support, can keep the pressure maybe it can move up again

watch USDJPY 94,60 area as indicative
  • #161,496
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:44pm Feb 19, 2009 8:44pm
Quoting fammira
putting my 2 cents at 133,72

if the ex resistance area, now support, can keep the pressure maybe it can move up again

watch USDJPY 94,60 area as indicative
precisely!
  • #161,497
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:54pm Feb 19, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting malcolmb14
do not worry I made enough trades for the both of us .... my borker must love me .. average of 12 per day ....

4 hour gj has pin bar on her .... 133.75 is key .. break of this we could see channel low of yesterday at about 131.20 zone.
yep watching that support and others. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #161,498
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:56pm Feb 19, 2009 8:56pm
enough posting for me - see you all in london session!
  • #161,499
  • Feb 19, 2009 9:09pm Feb 19, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting quecee5
enough posting for me - see you all in london session!
thanks for sharing your thoughts bro.
  • #161,500
  • Feb 19, 2009 9:21pm Feb 19, 2009 9:21pm
Quoting shelby
made some loosing trades. and had to take a break.
i'm back now hopefully more disciplined.

good job for stepping back and taking time out

do not forget the following 2 things they may help you:

1) a successful trader is not the one that makes 80 % of right trades . They are the ones that have 40 % right trades , let the winners run and let the losers go quickly.
Never hold a loser thinking .. oh it is going to come back .. that just develops bad habits. If you have a strategy that you want to make 500 pips a month , one bad trade and let it keep on running may wipe out an entires months works.

2) you do not have to be in the market all the time. If you feel uncomfortable with price action .. or unsure ... or confused ... or tired stay on the sidelines . You may miss a whole bunch of good moves and you may read on here that xyz made a million pips .. who cares .. it is about your account not theirs.

for example :This morning I missed the 200 up and 200 down move entirely .. was not feeling the best ..... traded the 50 pip channel we had for a while , went long just before PA went nuts , but closed for 10 pips as knew i was tired / sick and needed more sleep. When I came back after 2 hours more of sleep , and got over kicking the crap out of a box laying around in my office ( i was mad because I had missed such good moves) i settled down and found a 70 pip wide channel to trade. ... there is ALWAYS another trade or market conditions around the corner that maybe clearer to you

Money management is key in this game
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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