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Nanningbob 60x90 EA

  • #541
  • Feb 17, 2009 7:37pm Feb 17, 2009 7:37pm
Quoting llambert3
Dang mine hasn't even gotten in once. Came close though. I'm fiddling my thumbs waiting.. lol
yeh i dont even have a position open on eurusd yet...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #542
  • Feb 17, 2009 7:37pm Feb 17, 2009 7:37pm
Quoting Bioquim
Thanks Nanningbob for the fantastic system. I agree with you, this is a retracement system. There will be draw downs if a pair trends heavily, but the theory behind the strategy is very sound - all pairs generally breath along their trend and 60 pips in retracement isn't very much to ask.

In running a demo over the past week, I notice four pairs that encompass most of the trades in my demo: gbpnzd, eurnzd, gbpaud, euraud.

Any thoughts on this? Thanks,

Bioquim
I will only use one big risk pair in trading and those are 4. My favorite with this system so far is the eur/nzd or the gbp/jpy. The biggest loss I ever took was with the Eur/aud last Oct. so I dont trade that one anymore. The gbp/nzd is similar to the gbp/jpy so you can choose. Any way my choice has been the Eur/Nzd and I give it more room 100 entry instead of 60 for 1st level. I would not trade both the gbp/nzd and eur/nzd because they are similar currencies. If one gets into trouble they probably both will so then you have to deal with two bad trades at once. I would not use a 4th level with any of them so my losses are never that big.
  • #543
  • Feb 17, 2009 8:31pm Feb 17, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting challenger78
To take advantage of big trends. Not always the price goes back to the median. Currently the biggest problem of this system is the big trends, I was thinking if we could use them to our advantage. Something like a combination of your 2 systems if you like, when there is a big trend that takes out a 4th level trade, we switch to the trending EA for 1 trade, and then back.

On a similar note, has anyone who is testing the system checked in backtest what is the probability after losing a 4th level trade that the trend continues against us or comes...
Sorry guy price will 100% of the time go back to the Median, the only question is will it go the needed 60 pips profit when it goes back. The bigger problem I have been facing is not the retracement but he bigger spreads companies have been putting one that hinders these retracements. Demos that have fixed spreads have been doing well but almost every broker has or will be going to floating spreads. Just got another email from a company that is going to the 5 digit floating spreads. They say they are doing it to lessen their spreads but I think in the long run at key times they will widen their spreads to their benefit. Anyone with IBFX knows we face this all the time. GBP/NZD works great with my system but I have seen spreads as high as 70 on that thing which prevents TP from happening. So it goes.
  • #544
  • Edited Feb 18, 2009 12:02am Feb 17, 2009 11:44pm | Edited Feb 18, 2009 12:02am
heres some thoughts ive had regarding hedging in this EA...

It is important to have a solid foundation in technical analysis regarding price action and support and resistance, you still have to be able to read a chart with some skill, this is a semi-EA not set and forget.

Say we are using the MA strategy (ie only a buy or sell position open, not both ways), Bob has introduced a Recovery EA to get you out of trouble if it goes a 4th level etc. You only put on the recovery EA if you believe it will still retrace (based upon chart reading etc). Now if your chart/fundamentals reading suggests that the trend will still continue we need to use a hedge of some sort to get out of trouble...

the maths ive been working out shows that you can reduce the original DD at stoploss to approx 30% or approx 24 winning level 1 trades depending on your settings... now if your 1st level is suitably far away from the MA you barely ever hit the 4th level.

ok say we have these settings...

TP: 60
Re-entry: 90
Multiply: 2.5 (still gets profit at every re-entries TP)
SL: 400
Maxtrades: 4
initial lot size: 0.1

now just for examples sake say there is 0 spread and its the EURUSD (ie 10cents a pip)


we turn on the hedge EA at the exact same time the 4th level re-enters (270pips away from first entry).

The hedge EA’s lot size is 3.55 or $3.55 per pip. It has a SL of 10, whereby if hit it will close all trades. This is the worst case scenario and based on current settings, the original SL DD will be $461.5, with the DD at the Hedge EA’s SL equalling $103.1 + $35.5 = $138.6 (exactly 30%)….

However if you turn on the hedge EA you are reading the charts trend to keep on going… and every pip in the direction of the hedge EA equals less and less drawdown(how often would it turn exactly at the re-entry without dribbling even a little bit over???)… now I understand the 10pip SL is a tad small and could be hit through noise, so you may widen it to 20 etc, but you will experience more drawdown if the hedge EA SL is hit, up to you…

When the 400 SL (for the original re-etries) is hit and all trades closed, based upon these figures the balance will be 0 and a potential death trade is now a breakeven trade, live to fight another day…


Let me know if there are any problems/issues, im sure there will be a few with it… just gives us a reverse option to the recovery EA, which will probably be used 90% of the time neways as it more often than not will retrace… however the difference is the SL drawdown using recovery and this is massive, so if you’ve made plenty of profit and don’t wanna take the risk you could apply this theory/thing.

alternately you could just opt for a simpler option and just cut your loss at around level 4 anyways.... up to you
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #545
  • Feb 18, 2009 12:00am Feb 18, 2009 12:00am
Quoting whitegoodman
heres some thoughts ive had regarding hedging in this EA...

It is important to have a solid foundation in technical analysis regarding price action and support and resistance, you still have to be able to read a chart with some skill, this is a semi-EA not set and forget.

[color=black]Say we are using the MA strategy (ie only a buy or sell position open, not both ways), Bob has introduced a Recovery EA to get you out of trouble if it goes a 4th level etc. You only put on the recovery EA if you believe...
i'm working on a hedging set up that has the winning side multiply like the lossing side but multiplying at a different rate (actually the multiplying rate changes for each step.



the winning side keeps all trades in. it helps grow the price per movement for the trending side.
the losing side gets in at the bottom does its counter trending move
we close the one trade and open the next with the multiplier settings. we close the old to reduce price per pip for the last level were ever we set that.
once past the last step the settings should make it so the trend following side has a bigger price per pip than the counter trending side. and in adition we can set it up to follow the trend and end with the trend. i'm working on making the death trade a trade we look forward too.
because it would be the big profit trade


i have a spread sheet but i would have to explain it
the markets moving, time to get in!
  • #546
  • Feb 18, 2009 3:29am Feb 18, 2009 3:29am
Dear Thread,

An obscure thread with some good thoughts on figuring out relative position size and components.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57574


Lenoxer
  • #547
  • Feb 18, 2009 3:37am Feb 18, 2009 3:37am
Dear Thread,

I've got an actuary who does some work for me coming over today. As you might expect, he is an expert on runs of numbers, number manipulation, etc. So, what would you guys like---love---to know statistically about these reversion trades that would make you more profitable? Perhaps with the right questions we can get an excellent answer or two.

Lenoxer
  • #548
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:19am Feb 18, 2009 6:19am
Firstly, thanks to Nanningbob and everyone else in this thread for sharing your ideas and hard work coding EAs/templates/documentation.

What do you guys think about using a volatility filter?

Why not make the distance from median, TP and maybe the SL dynamic from week to week by using multipliers of the previous week or daily ATR(x)?
eg. 0.6 x previous week range

It won't help if there are sudden crazy breakouts, but at least the next day/week can be adjusted according.
Also, without the static 500 pip SL, position sizes could be greater during quieter periods.
This could lead to potentially more trades, and bigger profits for those frequent winners.
The downside is potentially more stopped out trades.

There is no such thing as a system that can handle all market conditions, so why not just trade 2 systems - one for range and one for trend/breakout? I'm sure that it will all average out in the end.
  • #549
  • Edited 8:58am Feb 18, 2009 8:23am | Edited 8:58am
Quoting w37b
There is no such thing as a system that can handle all market conditions, so why not just trade 2 systems - one for range and one for trend/breakout? I'm sure that it will all average out in the end.
There is such system. Imagine you have unlimited money, trade this EA with 20 or even 50 level. Will you lose ? Can it handle ALL market condition ? No matter in what market condition, there is always retract. No matter in what market condition, there is always 60 pips retract [just a matter of time, so having many level allow you to wait longer for the 60 pips retract]

Unless USD default and change to Amero, there will always be 60 pips retract. Increase in level = Increase chance of getting 60 pips retract

Try this in demo, open up a 10 billion dollar account. Set your max trade 20, lot size 1cent/pip [assuming no max lot size].Trade only EURGBP. Come back 1 year later and u will see your account have more than 1 billion dollars.

Why is it that max trade level 20 will never lose ? EURGBP can never move over 1800 pips without at least 100 pips retract. So, with this in mind, we set the range for the EA for the highest range it will run without a retract.

If you get hit too often, it means that you made a wrong guess on the range.
  • #550
  • Feb 18, 2009 9:05am Feb 18, 2009 9:05am
I think we should all lend forexisfx the money he needs so he can try this live. Has anyone figured out how large an account you would need to use penny lots and be guaranteed profit? I think I'll play with the numbers today. The bakery is sloooow.
  • #551
  • Feb 18, 2009 9:17am Feb 18, 2009 9:17am
by the way, I've made $1.83 today with penny lots on a $1500 account. Guess you need a lot to make a lot.
  • #552
  • Feb 18, 2009 9:28am Feb 18, 2009 9:28am
Quoting jthomas71
by the way, I've made $1.83 today with penny lots on a $1500 account. Guess you need a lot to make a lot.
Depending on the risk you willing to take. U can make a lot with little money but u will loss more easily. If u saw someone using this EA making a lot of money with very little capital, it means that the person setting is very risky, he will get a lot of trade but tend to get hit on SL more often.

Quoting jthomas71
I think we should all lend forexisfx the money he needs so he can try this live. Has anyone figured out how large an account you would need to use penny lots and be guaranteed profit? I think I'll play with the numbers today. The bakery is sloooow.
Guaranteed profit means your setting have to be less risky and you will get a lot less trade. Imagine u are using the same setting as u are using now, but u only open trade when your setting reach level 3. You are more safe than your current setting, but at the same time u make less money becoz of lesser trades.
  • #553
  • Feb 18, 2009 9:52am Feb 18, 2009 9:52am
So where's the happy medium, do you think? I was trading dime lots which seemed too high, and now pennies seem too low. Should I raise lot sizes, or is the market just too slow right now. I'm using Bob's 17 recommended pairs.
  • #554
  • Feb 18, 2009 10:45am Feb 18, 2009 10:45am
There was a thread started on this premise called Bobnannings Range Trading method. In my mind, it all boils down to what would constitute the best center line. There's a COG line. There's an ATR line. There's a Moving Average line. I suppose there's other center lines that people can think of. In the case of an ATR line, how much different really is it from a 40 MA, or an 80 MA? Let's say using some number of periods ATR line gets you into a trade whereas you wouldn't have using a 40 or 80 MA line. Would that trade be a better one? In the alternative, lets say using an ATR would keep you OUT of a trade that a 40 or 80 MA would get you into. Are you better off staying out of that trade? What would be the historical return on ATR versus using a Moving Average? Why would using an ATR give you better trades than using a Moving Average line. I haven't done testing on the two, but my suspicion is that over the long haul, it would be a wash. Here's a post on the other thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=21
Quoting w37b
Firstly, thanks to Nanningbob and everyone else in this thread for sharing your ideas and hard work coding EAs/templates/documentation.

What do you guys think about using a volatility filter?

Why not make the distance from median, TP and maybe the SL dynamic from week to week by using multipliers of the previous week or daily ATR(x)?
eg. 0.6 x previous week range

It won't help if there are sudden crazy breakouts, but at least the next day/week can be adjusted according.
Also, without the static 500 pip SL, position sizes could be greater...
  • #555
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:11am Feb 18, 2009 11:11am
I think with each trade you have to decide BEFORE you make it how much you're willing to LOSE on it. If you're in a trade where you have a 500 PIP stop loss, isn't that what you planned on going in? If you didn't really want that 500 PIP stop, why even put it on? Why not 350 if that's all you care to lose? Or, why not 1000 if you can afford to lose? I think emotions come into play on live trading that you never experience with demo monopoly money. When you see that trade past level three, and the amount you're down represents 10% of your account, are you really going to put a recovery EA on and risk losing maybe another 10% of your account? Multiply that times perhaps two or three other pairs in the same situation. Do you want to consider fib lines, S&R lines, MA crosses, RSI, daily, hourly trends or other factors when you're that deep in, and then keep your fingers crossed that they work. If they really did work, why not just use them, instead of this counter trend EA system? If they consistently work and make money consistently, there's really no need to trade THIS system.
If people are going to tinker with a way to get out of a trade after a third level, IMHO that should all be done before the trade is made. Otherwise, you're crossing fingers and toes hoping that the decision you make when things are moving fast and you're way down, is the right one. The worst time to make a decision on a trade is when you're running scared. If you don't really want to enter into a trade with a 3 level EA at at 500 pip stop, then use a 4 level EA, or a 5 level EA going in. That way you can easily do the calculations of how much % of your account that trade will cost you if you're stopped out without you having to intervene and try to change things perhaps in the middle of the night, or worry about it while you're at work.
Quoting nanningbob
Because of all the big news stories floating around, I will go with a controled loss over a recovery right now. Just a gut feeling, a proactive congress seems to make the USD trend to the positive over its Euro counterparts. So I will just take the hit between now and the Euro open if I need too. It will not be a big loss and I will still profit from yesterday. I see a double bottom on the 1H chart so I will hang with it, possible reversal signal there.
  • #556
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:40am Feb 18, 2009 11:40am
I ended up getting out of that eurusd at about breakeven or for a very small loss before euro started last night. I would have let the recovery trigger if it had continued down, but glad i didn't have to.
  • #557
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:29pm Feb 18, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting jthomas71
by the way, I've made $1.83 today with penny lots on a $1500 account. Guess you need a lot to make a lot.
I am using .03 on 250 dollar live account but only using 1 high risk pair on 13 pairs. I am making 5-20 a day which is 2-8% a day. That is a nice return. My DD stays between 10-40 dollars while it is trading so I am staying under 15% of my entire account almost all the time. On 3000 demo dollars trading all the currencies I have used 1.00 lots for 1 week. Here are the results of this demo since last Wed. Pretty impressive but is very high risk. The market actually has been very quiet. If you had used dime trades the total would have been over 500 dollars but this shows 5000 at 1.00 trades. So this shows you the potential.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #558
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:00pm Feb 18, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting tazmaan
I ended up getting out of that eurusd at about breakeven or for a very small loss before euro started last night. I would have let the recovery trigger if it had continued down, but glad i didn't have to.
Yes me too. I did the Eur/usd and the eur/chf. I waited for a good retrace and made sure I still made a profit for the day. I look today and see the Eur/chf would have come back for its TP but the Eur/USD would have still been in the trade. So I am glad I made the decision because I met my overall goal of making a profit for the day. Some days are big money days some are small but if you make every day a profit day it all adds up. The biggest problem I face in trading is me and my greed factor. I dont like seeing the small profit day so I hang onto a potential risky trade. Most of the time it retraces and I get a profit but some days ............ eeeeeeeeeekkk then I lose even my small profit. I had two weeks in a row where I had 200+ profit weeks and I wanted my Friday trades to be profitable also. So instead of taking 15-20 dollar losses on that day I stayed in and ended with both of them being around -100. I should have been just happy with what I had. Trading dont you just love it.
  • #559
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:14pm Feb 18, 2009 6:14pm
that is true Bob, this system will work very well if you eliminate the greed factor. Atleast we are up losing profits then losing original capital
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #560
  • Feb 18, 2009 6:34pm Feb 18, 2009 6:34pm
Quoting jthomas71
So where's the happy medium, do you think? I was trading dime lots which seemed too high, and now pennies seem too low. Should I raise lot sizes, or is the market just too slow right now. I'm using Bob's 17 recommended pairs.
Each currency pair have their own happy medium. If u have the time, research on each currency and see where is the happy spot. If u don't have the time, Bob's setting is general enough for most of the currency pairs.

No matter what lot size u are using, just make sure you have enough money to cover the DD. U don't wanna hit urself in the head becoz u cannot hold on to your trade and it reverse just when u got a margin call.

If u wanna go for higher lot size and don't have the margin, just reduce the number of pair you trade. U don't have to trade 17 currency pairs.
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