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Lusan Journal II

  • #41
  • Feb 17, 2009 2:00pm Feb 17, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting luSan
You bet...I am very happy with my trading ways...My is because of so much gossiping going around the Forex Trading community....I wonder if it is really worthy hanging around here...that is the part that I will think about while I go for my weekend hike.
I am not sure what it is about but i am very sure you ahve a great head on your shoulders..


Quote

Edit: I just picked up Pesavento's "Trade What you see." Maybe a good book...I donot know.

it is more about typical patterns based on some golden ratio.... let me know how u felt it... i read once and then passed it...

V
  • #42
  • Edited Feb 18, 2009 2:06am Feb 17, 2009 6:30pm | Edited Feb 18, 2009 2:06am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Lusan,

are you relating to "Charly"?
If so: As I have written there, there is only one word that discribes it all:
Kindergarden ....
Yes, my friend...."Charly"....the @#sdfj..

Trading is hard enough...
It is not easy to make it into a business...
-which is my intent....
and, I believe, our intent...

I confess that I do not care much about Charly...
I care about the way it affect others...
why?...because its effect upon the trading mindset...
And
the mindset is so important....
silly distractions are worthless...
what to do?
No much but keep going...
it is just noise....
Now...
let us just focus on the charts...
times are so hard for the world economy...
Euro is going through hell...
Master O, the fool, is sending more troops to Afganistan...
and tomorrow,...
what other crazy socialist ideas will reach my hears?

Let us just trade with the best of our abilities...
Now...
I keep thinking that there got to be
a way to distinguish consistenly a
trend from range in the 1D TF...
-or, if not, a way to MM the 1D chart-
if so...then I would really be happy.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #43
  • Feb 17, 2009 10:58pm Feb 17, 2009 10:58pm
Hi Lusan,

yeah - may be it is the only way to become a successful trader, to let all these childish incidents behind and away from our mindsets.
But it is so sad, because - like you - I'm a strong beliefer that the discussion is a important element of learning and research.
Hope will keep up your journal in the future.
It is always a great inspiration and the source of new ideas/perspectives to me.
Will try to contribute a little more to get a constructive deiscussion runing ...

Regards,
Niels
  • #44
  • Feb 18, 2009 10:24am Feb 18, 2009 10:24am
With my current MM, I find hard to reach the 100-200 pips daily range. I have 2 choices: (1) increase waves sizes or (2) Extend trading session. I prefer the large sizes. If everyday, I can bring home the 50-100 range, then I am home free.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Feb 18.jpg Size: 70 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #45
  • Feb 18, 2009 10:48am Feb 18, 2009 10:48am
Quoting luSan
With my current MM, I find hard to reach the 100-200 pips daily range. I have 2 choices: (1) increase waves sizes or (2) Extend trading session. I prefer the large sizes. If everyday, I can bring home the 50-100 range, then I am home free.
Hi Lusan,

I have cancelled the Dow as highly relevant at the moment.
It is not correlating very good to EURUSD or USDJPY the past days.
I think the reason is, that USDJPY is losing its state as "safe haven" currency due to major probs of the Japanese economy. I think it needs some time till some new correlations have established ...

Just my 0.02 EUR

Regards,
Niels.
  • #46
  • Feb 18, 2009 10:48am Feb 18, 2009 10:48am
Quoting luSan
With my current MM, I find hard to reach the 100-200 pips daily range. I have 2 choices: (1) increase waves sizes or (2) Extend trading session. I prefer the large sizes. If everyday, I can bring home the 50-100 range, then I am home free.

This is same problem i saw today.... I woke up at 5.15 and was in market... but market was dead not moved that much and i had to get ready office by 7.00...

if i had long time i could easily do the rescue but i had time constarint i had to book a loss... ponder this... if i had just left scout open i would still have made money ....

I guess we need to add another factor called "time" when we start to trade... to know how much time we have to get in and out....


V
  • #47
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:07am Feb 18, 2009 11:07am
Quoting indianguyinny24
This is same problem i saw today.... I woke up at 5.15 and was in market... but market was dead not moved that much and i had to get ready office by 7.00...

if i had long time i could easily do the rescue but i had time constarint i had to book a loss... ponder this... if i had just left scout open i would still have made money ....

I guess we need to add another factor called "time" when we start to trade... to know how much time we have to get in and out....


V
1) I do not extend the time because I get tired after a while and I found that 4 hours is near my upper limit.

Time is an important factor. We have both objective time and psychological time.
I believe that you must be at work by 8:00 am. That places a lot of pressure on your trading. Have you consider trading in the evening?

When I did the early morning, I was done by 5:00 am...My schedule: In bed by 10;00 pm, up at 3:30 am...normal trade up to 5:00 am...back to bed until 7:00 am...the 5:00-7:00 am sleep schedule could be used for emergency...Still it was creating a mess with my daily life. Why? Because I went to a highly paid and boring job, while people were having fun.

2) If you want to fast dance, then you must pay close attention to the 15M reversal. I would be long at 5:20 am as you see in the attached chart.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #48
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:10am Feb 18, 2009 11:10am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Lusan,

I have cancelled the Dow as highly relevant at the moment.
It is not correlating very good to EURUSD or USDJPY the past days.
I think the reason is, that USDJPY is losing its state as "safe haven" currency due to major probs of the Japanese economy. I think it needs some time till some new correlations have established ...

Just my 0.02 EUR

Regards,
Niels.
0.02 EUR taken...
Still I see a lot of harmony...
I just track them and collect data on them for further study...
Although DOW is distracting because pure PA contains all...
all is there...
in front of our own eyes.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #49
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:43am Feb 18, 2009 11:43am
Quoting luSan
1) I do not extend the time because I get tired after a while and I found that 4 hours is near my upper limit.

Time is an important factor. We have both objective time and psychological

time.
Have you consider trading in the evening?
Agreed and thats why i have to start looking for
rescue attempte like 6.15 just to be sure....i have to be office by 9.00 but even then 7.00 is max for me....

Trading in evenign has not been fruitfull yet.... asian market doesnt help...

Quote

2) If you want to fast dance, then you must pay close attention to the 15M reversal. I would be long at 5:20 am as you see in the attached chart.


Thanks for this... but generally i am biased one time and stick with it....

so far one big loss (5% of book) apart that i never had loss may be very fer profit but yes no losss so far but changing bias can bring totally new cane of worms....

I guess it is each own field to chart.... i need to map my own field....

V
  • #50
  • Feb 18, 2009 12:19pm Feb 18, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
I guess it is each own field to chart.... i need to map my own field....
Yes,
my friend,
each one has to map his/her own territory.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #51
  • Feb 19, 2009 10:53am Feb 19, 2009 10:53am
What a complex day. PA taugh me a big lesson: "When the mindset is disturbed, walk away from the computer for several mins to regain your composure."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Feb 19.jpg Size: 69 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #52
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:35am Feb 23, 2009 9:35am
Done for the day: a relaxed attack dance that was followed by a chaotic mindset. Some profit returned, others kept in the book. No more dance today due to unstable mindset.

I am pausing posting my dances.
Why?
It is not a good trade. I get no feedback, no discussion. I am not trying to teach anything to anyone, but to share. When sharing is in only one direction, then it is not a good investment.
I suspect that posting them is affecting the mindset since they create a trader dependence on a FF audicence.
So, no benefits and just potential loses.

Hey....I'd really wish my pure PA trading not be affected by the mindset...but that is not the case...
The right mindset is essential.
When it is lost, then the general must rest.
So out...

By the way, I suspect that 2 things affected the mindset this time
1-A very easy first attack dance
2-The Dow futures and upcoming New York open as shown in the chart.

Solution? Pay attention to the charts!
They contain absolutely all that I need to know.

Even though, my dance win rate of 93 % justifies already large trading sizes, there is clearly still plenty of mindset training.
So I will stick to the size progression plan I sketched sometime ago.

Also, I am considering a dual dance approach similar to Mamood but I am still thinking about it because I want to adapted it to my own mindset. I do not want to hurt the tradining already done.
I will do some demo practice starting this afternoon.
CU
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #53
  • Feb 23, 2009 12:09pm Feb 23, 2009 12:09pm
Lusan,

i would really lifek to see your charts if possible it has helped me a lot..

Though i dont consider my self expert thats why ia m quiet here....


So if you can still post that wopuld be great...

As like me you told your analysis are generally aawesome so nothing mroe to add...

Also even i am thinking to do some dancing lie MaMood but waiting ....waiting for what that i dont know...

V
  • #54
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:52am Feb 24, 2009 6:52am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Lusan,

i would really lifek to see your charts if possible it has helped me a lot..

Though i dont consider my self expert thats why ia m quiet here....

So if you can still post that wopuld be great...

As like me you told your analysis are generally aawesome so nothing mroe to add...

Also even i am thinking to do some dancing lie MaMood but waiting ....waiting for what that i dont know...

V
Just learning by doing...trying very hard to make this trading dream real without any guidance...

I still think that I will not post my charts for a while...but I offer to email them to you if you PM your email. On Friday, I am going to Manhattan. I think this is your home town, right?

No trading today...even though I just finished a very short dance...
Why?
E/U 1D looks so odd,
DOW went to hell yesterday, -7200 broken, moving toward 6400 and then 5000. Then end of the world."
futures are up but maybe this is just profit taken,
Confidence index out, BB talking,
and our mad master is giving an nationwide speech tonight trying to convince us that "he did not mean it to say that USA is in a deep hole, that his is the prince of hope, etc. "I am not a socialist but let me send some more cash to the american workers and no-nationalize the bank while the governement own more than 50 %"... so much b!$@$# and and incompetence goverment.
on top of that I feel on the edge...
my trouble detector is ringing hard...
Very edgy and paranoic with my money....

So rule number #3 applies:
"Stay away from the market."
Tomorrow will be another day.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #55
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:20am Feb 25, 2009 8:20am
Lusan,

we will reach there.... i am not in hurry.... also i learnt long time ago ore i run towards something more it runs away ... so i am just enjoying my dance..

Check my new trade picture upload in my journal let me know what you think about it...

V
  • #56
  • Feb 25, 2009 10:18am Feb 25, 2009 10:18am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Lusan,

we will reach there.... i am not in hurry.... also i learnt long time ago ore i run towards something more it runs away ... so i am just enjoying my dance..
Yes, we will...finally today I understood one more tibit of information that I think will help me a lot:

My strategy is to behave as a bank behaves: fade the pair in sync with the main 1H trend. That is the main mindset. During atack actions, the mindset becomes confused sensing that the trades are inconsistent...then the fear crips in...

Solution:

Attack mode: Be a trader. No fade, attack with a non-aggresive skew: 1:1:1...Slow in the profit taken until the next PA floor

Rescue mode: Be a bank. Fade and take your profit along the way. Use a more agresive skew: 2:3:5 Spread them out along 150 pips. Etc.

Note: there is not pull-the-plug here. Forex has many congestions to save the day. When I study my loses, I find that if I have waited for the congestion then they would be winners.

v, yes we go slow, inch by inch we can see the goal just ahead. My sizes are still small but they bring consistently > 0.5 % daily. I have not decided yet if I should increase the size or optimize the profit side of the strategy. That is something to reflect on the coming days.

Quote
Check my new trade picture upload in my journal let me know what you think about it...

I did not know you have a journal. I will stop by.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #57
  • Feb 25, 2009 11:34am Feb 25, 2009 11:34am
Quoting luSan
Yes, we will...finally today I understood one more tibit of information that I think will help me a lot:

Solution:

Attack mode: Be a trader. No fade, attack with a non-aggresive skew: 1:1:1...Slow in the profit taken until the next PA floor
This is interesting thought.... i am sure this is my problem ... i am always scared what if the trade reverses when i entered in huge position

Quote
Rescue mode: Be a bank. Fade and take your profit along the way. Use a more agresive skew: 2:3:5 Spread them out along 150 pips. Etc.
This is what i am doing after my one 5% loss and one big resue... thats why first rescue comes around 20-30 pips depending the pattern..
Quote


v, yes we go slow, inch by inch we can see the goal just ahead. My sizes are still small but they bring consistently > 0.5 % daily. I have not decided yet if I should increase the size or optimize the profit side of the strategy. That is something to reflect on the coming days.
Well success is achieved in Inches....:-)...
  • #58
  • Feb 26, 2009 9:39am Feb 26, 2009 9:39am
Here is the issue:
Giving that the dances deliver
1. Consistent 0.5% to 0.8% ROE every day
2. Market exposure from 1-3.5 hours
3. Trading from 7:30 to 11:00 am 4X week

What should we do next
Option A
Increase market exposure to maximize profit.
Negative: more actual risk because of larger time exposure

Option B
Increase trade sizes with constant base account
Negative: more implicit risk due to imbalance [Account/trade size] ratio

Option C
Increase trade size and base account balance
ROE and MO/MM remain constant.
Actual $ profit increases
Negative: There is always $ left on the table

I must decide before my next trading session.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #59
  • Feb 26, 2009 10:43am Feb 26, 2009 10:43am
Quoting luSan
Here is the issue:
Giving that the dances deliver
1. Consistent 0.5% to 0.8% ROE every day
2. Market exposure from 1-3.5 hours
3. Trading from 7:30 to 11:00 am 4X week

What should we do next
Option A
Increase market exposure to maximize profit.
Negative: more actual risk because of larger time exposure

Option B
Increase trade sizes with constant base account
Negative: more implicit risk due to imbalance [Account/trade size] ratio

Option C
Increase trade size and base account balance
ROE and MO/MM remain constant.
Actual...
Hi Lusan,

just some unfiltered spontanous thoughts ....

 

  1. Your return in relation to your time effort is excellent. Expanding the screen time could lead to more stress and as followup to some mindset/focus weaknesses. Trading is at least comparable to top-level professional sport. You need to be physically and mentally in shape.
  2. See no problem in increasing your trade sizes, as long as you feel comfortable with the new sizes and you have still more than enough ammunition to stay heavy rescues ...
  3. To expand your account size as well is not an good idea (if the rescue condition mentioned before is met). It means that you put more money on risk versus some other "safe haven" investments
  4. The "optimization" of your trading MO to increase your return will come automatically with increasing experience. But there are limits and an "optimization" could also expand your risk, because for example you try to stay your trades a little longer and so on ...

For the moment I have no more ideas.
May be I'll step in a little later again ...

Regards,
MaMood

  • #60
  • Feb 27, 2009 11:04am Feb 27, 2009 11:04am
Quoting MaMood
Your return in relation to your time effort is excellent. Expanding the screen time could lead to more stress and as followup to some mindset/focus weaknesses. Trading is at least comparable to top-level professional sport. You need to be physically and mentally in shape.
Agree.

Quote
See no problem in increasing your trade sizes, as long as you feel comfortable with the new sizes and you have still more than enough ammunition to stay heavy rescues.
I have plenty of unused margin...no danger there.

Quote
To expand your account size as well is not an good idea (if the rescue condition mentioned before is met). It means that you put more money on risk versus some other "safe haven" investments
Agree. There is no need to expand the account. Actually I do not use most of it yet. Additional available funding will be added to mantain always the account away from full margin level. Why? It makes me feel confortable knowing that I have reserved troops to deal with chaotic market.

Quote
The "optimization" of your trading MO to increase your return will come automatically with increasing experience. But there are limits and an "optimization" could also expand your risk, because for example you try to stay your trades a little longer and so on ...
Maybe profit optimization will happens on its own as more foreign capital is collected. So there is no need to do a thing about it.
If so, the thing to do is upsize-trade-upsize and so on until reaching a the financially independent level that we dream about.

It seems that I will upsize again next week...
No other changes...No need to rush...at all...
We will see what PA has to say.

Thanks for your comments
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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