Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

JPY and USD has reversed; Gold & Oil going down.

770 - 740 is target for Gold.

GBP Claimant Count Change - Jan 21 release:

GB economy first began to feel the intense pressure last February in 2008. Claimant Count clearly shows the increasing layoffs and worsening job market. Tomorrow's release will show the closing of 4th quarter.

CAD Retail Sales Core MoM - Jan 22 release:

Cad retail sales took a plunge last month. It would be worthy to see if the downtrend accelerates or pauses tomorrow.

US Unemployment Claims - Jan 22 release:

Unemployment claims have been increasing, gaining pace since early 2008. Late December '08 showed a decline, however, early January numbers quickly reversed to the upside. Tomorrow is important.

US Building Permits - Jan 22 release:

Building permits have been in a decline since mid-2007, and there is no bottom in sight; yet.

preneru, although i would never use the money management you use, i have to say, good work :nerd:

hey man, its been a while, do you post the signals before you take the trades? or you just post the results?

Thnx BBPI. I believe a trade is worth holding for at least 2-3 days after deciding taking it. I would never go for min/hourly trade.

I post the results. I evaluate and decide on the direction and value to enter prior to taking the position. I use stops, hence i note results after the positions are taken.

Before the News:
US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment - Feb 13 '09:

Consumer sentiment has tested the 55 levels twice, in June and in November, and failed to move lower. It looks like a break below 7000 is required in DOW for further gloomy outlook for consumers. Expectation around 60 today is inline with the trend. Move above 70-75 would show consumers' belief of improving economic conditions.

Here is the trend:

Before the News:
GBP CPI YoY - Feb 17 '09:

Inflation measures have peaked in October 2008, and since been going steadily south. Levels of 1%-2% will probably be seen before we see a bottom in inflation in GB.

Here is the trend:

Before the News:

EU ZEW German Economic Sentiment - Feb 17 '09:

ZEW Economic sentiment placed a double bottom in July and October, where panic set in. Since October lows, moved back up to levels of -30. This mark is significant, because it was first seen in March '08, where it all began with the demise of Bear Stearns. If we read levels better than -30, it could very well be the bottoming of EUR.

Here is the trend:

EU ZEW Sentiment came out way better than expected. It looks like institutional investors believe that EUR is bottoming around 1.23-1.25, and there could be a sideways action during the next 6 months. EUR/USD could be expected to increase in value after the summer '09.

GOLD update:

Will publish some updates on Gold...

Whats going on? Everybody is now talking about Gold, saying new highs. Actually, Dollar and Yen are the only two currencies (among majors) that Gold still failed to make new highs, established around March '08; which stands at $1032 an ounce.

Gold has clearly moved into a bullish trend beginning at around $900 late January, and never looked back, with substantial increase in long positions by speculators. $985-$990 is the key level now. One should wait for a clear break of these levels to enter into new long positions. Positions opened above $990 will target $1032 and higher.

Please see below for speculators' positioning prior to this rise.

The only thing that boggles my mind is the slow but decisive break of DOW to the down side. 7000 is the key, and the last key, level to stand just before a panic. IF, 7000 fails, IF allllll these bail outs fail, there could very well be a run on, almost all of well-doing businesses' stocks, beating DOW down to unimaginable levels, 4000. This could be a backstop in gold. Thats whats boggling my mind.

Before the News:

EU IFO Business Climate - Feb 24 '09:

EU Business Climate has been in a merciless decline, MoM since May '08. First pause we saw was in January '09. ZEW has been in sideways for the last quarter; lets see if IFO will reflect that with a lag.

Here is the trend:

Before the News:

US Confidence Board Consumer Confidence- Feb 24 '09:

US Consumer has been flat since the interim bottom in DOW, established mid-October. DOW is signaling a break to the down side, below 7000 mark, not seen since last 10 years. This pressure should bring Consumer Confidence further lower.

Here is the trend:

A trade on USD/CAD:

There is a chance to short USD/CAD around 1.2410s (US Close, Feb 24) down to 1.2300s and lower. Thats around 100+ pips.

For convenience and analysis sake, see chart below:

EUR/AUD:

JPY crosses began a possible upward trend. This will push AUD, NZD, TRY and all other high interest paying pairs higher, hence putting pressure on EUR/AUD and likewise.

Possible downward momentum building up. Short around 1.97 levels targeting 1.94 and lower.

Possible setup:

GBP/CHF

Likewise the JPY pairs, this pair has a potential to move higher. Selling pressure fading away. Holding above 1.6700s, will target 1.70 and higher.

Setup:

Before the News:

NZD Trade Balance - Feb 25 '09:

New Zealand continues to live with high budget deficit, and there is no end in sight.

Here is the trend: