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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #160,881
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:41pm Feb 16, 2009 9:41pm
Quoting bigcoupe
I actually love these setups.

I'm short a large lot at 92.35 with a SL/Long at 92.5.

Fundimentally, I think U/J is heading to the moon. Did you see the latest for Japan?


Japan's gross domestic product, or the total value of the nation's goods and services, dropped at an annual pace of 12.7 per cent in the October-December period, the Government said yesterday.


[indent]That is the steepest drop for Japan since the oil shock of 1974 and outpaces declines of 3.8 per cent in the United States and 1.2 per cent in the eurozone....
SL hit and am long. Will add on retrace.

Trade at your own risk.

B
  • #160,882
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:43pm Feb 16, 2009 9:43pm
Quoting Eulogy
I've always held that if there is any very bad finanicial news anywhere in the developed world, this would send the UJ tumbling as yen repatriations take hold when investors cut back on risk.

I agree and have traded as such for a long time. But what happens when the "Safe Haven" is no longer safe?

We'll see how this plays out. Wish me luck.

B
  • #160,883
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:43pm Feb 16, 2009 9:43pm
[quote=bigcoupe;2543518]I actually love these setups.

I'm short a large lot at 92.35 with a SL/Long at 92.5.

Fundimentally, I think U/J is heading to the moon. Did you see the latest for Japan?


Japan's gross domestic product, or the total value of the nation's goods and services, dropped at an annual pace of 12.7 per cent in the October-December period, the Government said yesterday.
That is the steepest drop for Japan since the oil shock of 1974 and outpaces declines of 3.8 per cent in the United States and 1.2 per cent in the eurozone.

cool bc im with you on the short but your throwing out all that fundie information out the window and taking a smaller lot long i presume - just in case our friends do the same

  • #160,884
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:46pm Feb 16, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting bigcoupe
I agree and have traded as such for a long time. But what happens when the "Safe Haven" is no longer safe?

We'll see how this plays out. Wish me luck.

B

how can cutting back risk by closing out the investment in the high yielding currency and repatriating the loan back into the low yielding one NOT be safe?
  • #160,885
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:46pm Feb 16, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting cohiba pips



cool bc im with you on the short but your throwing out all that fundie information out the window and taking a smaller lot long i presume - just in case our friends do the same

Are you able to see my screen?

Small position and will add more with some retracement.

B
  • #160,886
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:48pm Feb 16, 2009 9:48pm
Japanese detailing their robust intervention plans at the G7:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...unk-allegation
  • #160,887
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:48pm Feb 16, 2009 9:48pm
gob smacked
  • #160,888
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:51pm Feb 16, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting Eulogy

how can cutting back risk by closing out the investment in the high yielding currency and repatriating the loan back into the low yielding one NOT be safe?
This is my humble opinion but I presume Japan will intervene with the Yen. One of the biggest reason they are having problems is that the yen is so strong against the USD. This has caused profits on exports to the US to falter. Even technically, we are due for a retrace to the upside. U/J is trading at 1995 levels.
  • #160,889
  • Feb 16, 2009 9:51pm Feb 16, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting bit9ret
Japanese detailing their robust intervention plans at the G7:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...unk-allegation
i posted the other day and im still not sure but its the g8

only problem is i dont know who is the eight might be the Chelsea manager for all i know
  • #160,890
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:06pm Feb 16, 2009 10:06pm
I think the Russkies might still be excluded from the nuts and bolts of the economics meetings, but not the political summits. Even with all their oil etc., their economy, relatively speaking, is still tiny.
  • #160,891
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:06pm Feb 16, 2009 10:06pm
some wanted to know what intervention looked like

UJ +100 pips ... nikkei down ..es down .... gj up 100 pip ....

this is what intervention looks like
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,892
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:08pm Feb 16, 2009 10:08pm
no this is what the rumor of intervention looks like....
  • #160,893
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:10pm Feb 16, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting bit9ret
I think the Russkies might still be excluded from the nuts and bolts of the economics meetings, but not the political summits. Even with all their oil etc., their economy, relatively speaking, is still tiny.
Oh? and what about the Chinese?
  • #160,894
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:10pm Feb 16, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting cancunkev
no this is what the rumor of intervention looks like....
all I know is that we bounced right of yesterdays point of control 130.40 on the down move .... hit her on a long ..... and got out way to early .......sigh ,,,,
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,895
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:15pm Feb 16, 2009 10:15pm
intervention or no intervention, the fact even with the strong bounce we still couldn't close the gap leaves me "semi" bearish....
  • #160,896
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:19pm Feb 16, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting Eulogy
Oh? and what about the Chinese?
Russkie GDP numbers in real terms, PPP etc, are still tiny. They are still a bit player, except in oil. China, of course, is a completely different ball of wax.
  • #160,897
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:19pm Feb 16, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting cancunkev
intervention or no intervention, the fact even with the strong bounce we still couldn't close the gap leaves me "semi" bearish....
thats not even a sniff of intervention unless your a day trader or a range trader whatever that range maybe - he is pulling your plonker
  • #160,898
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:24pm Feb 16, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting cohiba pips
thats not even a sniff of intervention unless your a day trader or a range trader whatever that range maybe - he is pulling your plonker

soomething going on

did you see move in EU in Asia !!!! very unusual

also when was the last time Uj moved 100 pips straight up in Asian session ?

this smells of intervention .. or at least market test by big player ... and very liekly BOJ
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,899
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:34pm Feb 16, 2009 10:34pm
If you go here:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat...cfm?sk=21260.0

and dig around the years enough, you can find the IMF's analysis of Japanese interventions, amounts etc, in one of their past annual reports on Japan.

I've forgotten the year, but they analyzed it and the conditions under which it was undertaken. Really, really large amounts, that's all I remember.

One prob: economist have proven ad infinitum that intervention is never successful for long when it is not accompanied SIMULTANEOUSLY with a credible bigscale change in the macroeconomic policy. With GDP imploding, interest rates effectively at zero or negative (real terms), a change in the latter policy is hardly credible to markets.

The thing is to keep your nose to the wind of major changes/rumours vis Japanese economic policy. Here's one place where paying attention to rumours of news might pay.
  • #160,900
  • Feb 16, 2009 10:35pm Feb 16, 2009 10:35pm
Quoting malcolmb14
soomething going on

did you see move in EU in Asia !!!! very unusual

also when was the last time Uj moved 100 pips straight up in Asian session ?

this smells of intervention .. or at least market test by big player ... and very liekly BOJ
hi malcolmb14
I usually follow your comments . but do not write in this site . so what s your idea ? you mean market is preparing to fall or continue to upside ?
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