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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #160,841
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:03pm Feb 16, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting forextine
So I think it's obvious Japan is going to need to intervene soon, with that being said, UJ will go up, but what does it do for GJ?

when japan intervenes you will know about it. ... it will be very evident in the volume on the charts during the Asian session

I did not trade this morning ... but was just looking back at some charts.

GBPCHF was moving in really nice waves on a 5 min (160 pip down then 100 pip bounce .. all since 6am pst)... while GJ did nothing ....found that interesting
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,842
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:05pm Feb 16, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting dialpips
hey Malc., what's ur trading range for this ranging market? thanks.

131.10 to 130.70 .... getting even less since London closed.

I am going to trade in Asia tonight , not worth trying to trade now IMHO
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,843
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:21pm Feb 16, 2009 12:21pm
my last chart today

130->130.70->128.70->139

Only one condition 129-128 support area must hold.

See ya in London session
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  • #160,844
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:27pm Feb 16, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting malcolmb14
when japan intervenes you will know about it. ... it will be very evident in the volume on the charts during the Asian session

I did not trade this morning ... but was just looking back at some charts.

GBPCHF was moving in really nice waves on a 5 min (160 pip down then 100 pip bounce .. all since 6am pst)... while GJ did nothing ....found that interesting
volumes on which TF?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #160,845
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:35pm Feb 16, 2009 12:35pm
Geppy shorts are still gonna get their heads handed to them MT sellers beware
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #160,846
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:37pm Feb 16, 2009 12:37pm
way every one have diferents pivots pionts??

OANDA-PP=130.77

WATH IS YOURS ??
  • #160,847
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:46pm Feb 16, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Geppy shorts are still gonna get their heads handed to them MT sellers beware

nice statement ... that and

'the end of the world is coming'

have about as much meaning as each other ..lol

please can you explain some more ... what do you you see ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,848
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:54pm Feb 16, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting Obaidah
volumes on which TF?

general volume will be high all time frames during aisa if BOJ intevene ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,849
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:55pm Feb 16, 2009 12:55pm
aRE WE EXPECTING BOJ intervention tonight?
  • #160,850
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:57pm Feb 16, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting malcolmb14
general volume will be high all time frames during aisa if BOJ intevene ....
thanks
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #160,851
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:03pm Feb 16, 2009 1:03pm
Quoting malcolmb14
general volume will be high all time frames during aisa if BOJ intevene ....

whats your thinking on the boj intervening their latest outlook is poor
and the economy has dropped by 3 percent exports are down ( gone ) goods cars etc so obviously they need to weaken yen - spill the beans
  • #160,852
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:13pm Feb 16, 2009 1:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
nice statement ... that and

'the end of the world is coming'

have about as much meaning as each other ..lol

please can you explain some more ... what do you you see ?
I see a good test on reduced volume, demand is amungst us. followed by up bar on profit taking over the weekend, with a gap down but no new lo, supply not intrested here or at this time,maybe tomorrow maybe not for some time to come. all this happened at a 50% retracement, sitting above the daily hi lo activator
Last nights gap was a design to catch stops, fake the heads imo but like anything time will tell all
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #160,853
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:18pm Feb 16, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting dialpips
are we missing something. what's this bat u talking about. can'tsee it. can we have a clear message man?

thanks.

clear message
here u go

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  • #160,854
  • Feb 16, 2009 1:35pm Feb 16, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting cohiba pips
whats your thinking on the boj intervening their latest outlook is poor
and the economy has dropped by 3 percent exports are down ( gone ) goods cars etc so obviously they need to weaken yen - spill the beans
The perceived wisdom is that in order to help Japanese exports the Yen will have to be weakened. (There is also a notion that a weak currency gives a better base from which to come out of recession). Thus BoJ intervention in the form of flooding market with Yen. It's a delicate balancing act which if I'm being honest is way too late. The BoJ have been talking about intervention for months now, but have yet to act. The time for such a move was last Autumn IMO.

As for the timing of such a move, do not be surprised if it does not happen during Asia. Japanese intervention has often been targeted away from Japanese trading times. Early London would be more likely for such an announcement.
  • #160,855
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:11pm Feb 16, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
The perceived wisdom is that in order to help Japanese exports the Yen will have to be weakened. (There is also a notion that a weak currency gives a better base from which to come out of recession). Thus BoJ intervention in the form of flooding market with Yen. It's a delicate balancing act which if I'm being honest is way too late. The BoJ have been talking about intervention for months now, but have yet to act. The time for such a move was last Autumn IMO.

As for the timing of such a move, do not be surprised if it does not happen during Asia....
Speaking from experience, the BOJ won't just flood the market with Yen. There will be a few precursor steps they will take, they want to get value for money.

Firstly they will leak news that they are going to intervene, this has already happened, and will continue to happen. It will in effect remove alot of the institutions that are Yen bullish, and allow them to slowly reverse their strategies.

Secondly, and this is the most important, the BOJ will spend a couple of days "checking rates", you will see items on the newswires like "BOJ checking rates" or "BOJ looking for orders". This will instantly turn the market around for a week at a time and they haven't spent a Yen as yet. Eventually they will have to open their wallets, but by the time the anouncement happens their orders are well and truly stacked at different levels in the market. And it will usually occur on a day when a large institutional option is due, they way they get a little bump in the right direction and yes it will probably be outside of the asian session when volumes are higher.

That said, nothing is going to stop the repatriation of Yen loans, it is is just too large, and no-one really knows how big it is going to be. So as with the Asian Financial Crisis in the 90's, eventually the BOJ will be ignored.
{Some Profound Statement goes here}
  • #160,856
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:30pm Feb 16, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting cohiba pips
whats your thinking on the boj intervening their latest outlook is poor
and the economy has dropped by 3 percent exports are down ( gone ) goods cars etc so obviously they need to weaken yen - spill the beans

As a day trader I have found best not to think about the fundies and who is doing what. If I overthink the markets i will become frozen like a dear in the headlights , scared to do anything.

I juist need to know when the news is coming out so if i have a trade on i can make a decision .. take profit / take loss or move stop up and stay in market thru the news
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,857
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:05pm Feb 16, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
As a day trader I have found best not to think about the fundies and who is doing what. If I overthink the markets i will become frozen like a dear in the headlights , scared to do anything.

I juist need to know when the news is coming out so if i have a trade on i can make a decision .. take profit / take loss or move stop up and stay in market thru the news

that used to happen too me on almost a daily basis, just sitting in front of computer not making a single trade cause i was thinking to much.

wise words spoken as always

on a side note: anyone on the bullish side of things. at least going to close the gap tonight in asia in looks like?
  • #160,858
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:19pm Feb 16, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
As a day trader I have found best not to think about the fundies and who is doing what. If I overthink the markets i will become frozen like a dear in the headlights , scared to do anything.

I juist need to know when the news is coming out so if i have a trade on i can make a decision .. take profit / take loss or move stop up and stay in market thru the news
pretty cool posts thanks guys - i dont think the gap will be closed but thats just a feeling
lets see, to be honest as we are the best traders in the world ( kick the turtles arses any day as a group ) no one can tell where we are going right now and thats the truth
  • #160,859
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:19pm Feb 16, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
... I juist need to know when the news is coming out so if i have a trade on i can make a decision .. take profit / take loss or move stop up and stay in market thru the news
my thoughts exactly.
  • #160,860
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:28pm Feb 16, 2009 4:28pm
if the gopher breaks the 50ema on the 1 hr there could be serious moves
and cable socks are about to turn bearish on the 1 hr also
trade well
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