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We are approaching VERY serious times

  • #21
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:40pm Feb 15, 2009 5:40pm
So, people here start to offend when someone don't think the same way.. this is sad, rarely i will make another post on forexfactory
  • #22
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:46pm Feb 15, 2009 5:46pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
What is funny Gaston, is you......

do u understand what a chart is? it represents data in a visual form. buyers and sellers in the market dictate what a chart looks like.

cheers......
Yes, and this chart could just as easily turn into a double bottom, or consolidate within a few thousand point range for years to come.
  • #23
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:51pm Feb 15, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting Gaston


This thread is hilarious.

The US may collapse, who the hell knows, we could argue that all day long. But if it does collapse, however, it will have had NOTHING to do with that chart. Sure a few people might want to sell a break or something, but holy shit those few aren't going to decide the economic status of my country. No sir. The chart might go down because the economy collapsed. But the economy will not collapse because the chart went down.

My old trading friend and I are pissing our pants laughing right now at the look of this...

You're so great fantastic wonderful..... You do realise that the chart is a reflection of the mentality of the traders.
Smarter than basing it on some sort of news, especially when the psychology of the market is against any important news that comes out, and the reaction is the opposite of what should happen. I.e a strong US dollar with a US economic collapse.

You don't realise what the chart actually says, instead you decide to post like you are gods gift to fundamentals.

Wake up to yourself.
  • #24
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:59pm Feb 15, 2009 5:59pm
if this is true, why is it impossible to predict where the price will be an hour from now, let alone a year from now?

answer is greatly anticipated.

Quoting Takisd
You're so great fantastic wonderful..... You do realise that the chart is a reflection of the mentality of the traders.
Smarter than basing it on some sort of news, especially when the psychology of the market is against any important news that comes out, and the reaction is the opposite of what should happen. I.e a strong US dollar with a US economic collapse.

You don't realise what the chart actually says, instead you decide to post like you are gods gift to fundamentals.

Wake up to yourself.
  • #25
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:06pm Feb 15, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting tdion
if this is true, why is it impossible to predict where the price will be an hour from now, let alone a year from now?

answer is greatly anticipated.
The same goes with fundamentals. How about you answer how they will predict the future also...

Charts are simply indications of what the market sentiment and psychology is. They indicate the past tense, but show the majority over a larger scale.

If the markets are 100% random, they defy physics, which would make them the only thing that exists that does so. So if you can prove that, I will get you nominated for a nobel prize.
  • #26
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:10pm Feb 15, 2009 6:10pm
my belief is that price simply IS. it doesn't matter what it was 1 minute ago or where it will be 1 minute from now.

it is effiicient to the current set of information that central bankers have to work with. that's it.

trends are nothing more than strings of random news that coincide with the current sentiment.
  • #27
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:18pm Feb 15, 2009 6:18pm
Some things to think about:
Exibit A: DJI 60s + 70s
Exibit B: Nikki 90s

Things don't always go up. It's worth noting while the Nikki was flapping around, the US had a boom and 2 bubbles. So if world number 1 can be decoupled from world number 2 economy, then the US economy can decoupled from the BRIC economies.

Also note, they did in Japan what the US gov is trying to do now, i.e. very low interest rates and cash stimulus packages and you can see what it did for the market.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dji6070.JPG Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nki9009.JPG Size: 27 KB
In trading you are only as smart as your dumbest mistake. - Ralph Vince
  • #28
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:21pm Feb 15, 2009 6:21pm
Double bottom, trendline or randomness, I wouldn't put a cent on a bounce just because of fundamentals.
  • #29
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:40pm Feb 15, 2009 6:40pm
I don't normally like to call doomsday, but double tops like this are usually accurate. If the neckline breaks and holds, it's S&P to 450.

Fortunately there are other possibilities. It could reverse and range, or it could pull in more buyers and reverse just below the break. Either way, we'll find out very soon.
  • #30
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:54pm Feb 15, 2009 6:54pm
When this "M" pattern meets the concern that this last stimulus plan is worthless (as it is), down we go...

But it's not that things are bad because of a pattern on the charts. The pattern on the charts reflects how bad things are. And the market threw the index to the edge of the cliff and sat there to see what's next.

And next is: there is this stimulus package and pretty much nothing else.
  • #31
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:56pm Feb 15, 2009 6:56pm
Quoting Jay Walker
There has been the high tech and the housing bubble.

Both of them are now deflated.

So unless there is a new bubble, a collapse is likely.

Green bubble anyone?
Green energy bubble you mean?

quite the possibility!
if so I'm going to bum rush that bubble so hard... lol
  • #32
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:57pm Feb 15, 2009 6:57pm
Quoting Jay Walker
There has been the high tech and the housing bubble.

Both of them are now deflated.

So unless there is a new bubble, a collapse is likely.

Green bubble anyone?
Treasuries!!!!!
  • #33
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:00pm Feb 15, 2009 7:00pm
Quote
But it's not that things are bad because of a pattern on the charts. The pattern on the charts reflects how bad things are. And the market threw the index to the edge of the cliff and sat there to see what's next.

Very well said. It's not the chart pattern, but the underlying forces, that drive things. The patterns merely reflect that.
  • #34
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:14pm Feb 15, 2009 7:14pm
Looks like a classic double top. Certainly suggests a move down (notice the emphasis on suggest, it's not a certainty).

This is what TA is all about and why I love it so much.

Who cares about fundies, charts always tell you what to be cautious of.

In easy terms, LONGS be very weary!!!
  • #35
  • Feb 16, 2009 2:46am Feb 16, 2009 2:46am
Thank you all.

Very interesting, It has been said before that if you put 10 traders in a room with the same chart they will come up with 10 different interpretations.

TA is exactly what it says, how many of you here use charts to " get a feel " for whats happening ? we all use some form of indicator or signal to judge the current market. TA looks back in history for pattrens that keep coming up , those that reflect human emotions. The Double Top or " M " is one of the most powerful and is often used on lower timeframe charts. so we know in most cases what is likely to happen.

I thank you for all the imputs..............esp the Macdonalds ad.................i like that.

Lets just see what happens when S&P is at 400.
  • #36
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:30am Feb 16, 2009 4:30am
S&P futures calling for 815 today, would be the trigger of this pattern over there...
  • #37
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:31am Feb 16, 2009 4:31am
Bank holiday in the US.
  • #38
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:59am Feb 16, 2009 4:59am
Quoting Rabid
Bank holiday in the US.
Ok then... It's a "live to die another day" Monday
  • #39
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:01am Feb 16, 2009 5:01am
What broker offers S&P500 on MT4 with great chunk of history?
  • #40
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:03am Feb 16, 2009 5:03am
Chart tells a thousand words if you listen to it. Monthly bearish divergence on the DOW has its target filled at 7450, and that was obvious.
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