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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #160,481
  • Feb 14, 2009 6:15pm Feb 14, 2009 6:15pm
Yeh,just read your last post forextine,maybe Gdp already factored in,after G7 meetings usually very gappy,as ever with yen nikkei will be the key?Watch out for official buying on any big moves lower.GBP wise this bank situation and any mining pullbacks from japan GDP contraction could pressure downside in morning ,boy I sound confused on this just gone through opposite scenarios,maybe time to start watching CHF/JPY ,the old "Tokyo earthquake" strategy!
  • #160,482
  • Feb 14, 2009 7:13pm Feb 14, 2009 7:13pm
Just MHO,

Since US markets are closed Mon, things may not be clear until Tues/Wed

B
  • #160,483
  • Feb 14, 2009 8:55pm Feb 14, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting Eulogy
If there is one thing that Malcomb and Dr Geppy has taught us here with VSA its that gaps over the weekend usually fill and continue in that opposite direction.

I agree, small gap up to trap all the prospective bulls before shoving them down the drain.
This could happen, although it doesn't necessarily need to gap up, look at Feb 2nd, gap down, and tank.

Closed around 130.7 Friday, opened around 130.2, and dropped to 125.30s over the next 20hrs.

We got about 17hours to go to see what happens!! Ahhh I'm excited, and nervous. lol
  • #160,484
  • Feb 14, 2009 10:08pm Feb 14, 2009 10:08pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
I'm thinking temporary bottom here on S&P with more probable move to 915 (assuming Volume on WHC trader is somewhat accurate). Still need the PA confirmation.

On daily, I've identified demand as 736 - 791. Price moved quite rapidly out of that area and has not been back since Nov last year. Orders should be building in that region and even right below the lows at 736. 1/20/09 almost made it back to that area but was a few pts shy, and price still rallied away from it.

Then I look at the high volume on 11/20/08 on that widespread down red bar. Obviously professionals were not selling because the next day the following bar closed about 70% - 80% of previous bar. So to me that means there's professional buying interest 736 - 791. Fast forward to 2/10/09 when we get that large down red wide spread bar again with high volume compared to the previous 12 days or so. It hasn't had any follow through. Next day was narrow spread low volume, the following day was narrow spread closing on the highs, and Friday was lower close with less volume. It really looks like there is no professional interest in pushing this down lower by analyzing the volume. If that 2/10/09 bar was really selling we would see an obvious down move already.

From last week, I was thinking this weekend would be the best time for the pro's to play psychological games with the mass of traders considering all the fear in the market. I think they're going to gap the market down over the weekend (low liquidity makes it easy), and they're gapping it right into a demand area that's clear on the charts. If I see the gap down I'd consider it bullish especially if the news is negative. The purpose of the gap is to lock in traders that aren't in the market to short appealing to their greed, but then once the market starts moving up again, need to cover short thus increasing buying momentum, and the gap is into a demand zone too.

If the market reaches that demand zone and bounces out of it quickly, then I'd think it's going to 915 (or a littlw lower lower) and will be coming back down again and the rally will not be sustained. For a sustained rally, I would want price to make it into that demand area and we start moving sideways in there (pro's will be accumulating their long positions), and we may even have a down thrust day where price breaks the lows, taking out all sell stop orders for people trying to catch break-outs or even people that also think bottom and have stop orders below, and then price closes on the highs after it takes out those order. The downthrust would be the ideal price action signal because panic/fear will strike people if the lows get broken because the events from last year are still fresh in everyone's mind, so I'd think it's a perfect time for pro's to manipulate the market.

The 2nd chart attached shows similar PA of what I'd be looking for sustained rally (taken from beginning of last year). Notice sideways movement @ demand. Second chart (from Summer/Fall last year) shows how price rallies quickly out of demand zone and enters again rapidly. Not what I'd be looking for.

Anyways, just my opinion, and I need to see the PA confirmation first and lastly the volume I'm using could be off bc it's from WHC.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: feb 13 comparison 2.jpg Size: 138 KB
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #160,485
  • Feb 15, 2009 12:00am Feb 15, 2009 12:00am
Been all over UK news this weekend about possible nationalisation of Lloyds. Darling refuses to rule this out which means he's seriously thinking about it. These stories have a habit of being leaked prior to it actually happening. If Lloyds do go, RBS will follow quickly. That would leave Barclays massively vulnerable.

Keep your eyes on UK bank stocks tomorrow. I expect a big London sell-off.

Last time the UK banks needed help, we went sub 119 on GY.

This isn't a call, but a heads-up.
  • #160,486
  • Feb 15, 2009 12:21am Feb 15, 2009 12:21am
Quoting Petefaders
This member claims to keep a jounal just for himself, then he gets people on Yahoo IM and pressures them to sign up for his paid service. He tried with me). Is just oversimplified supp/resist with HUGE stop losses, so he can come back later and say he made 300 pips or he closed early....just puting the truth out there.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=393

.
I'd like to recommend that new traders read through this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=151457

It's only 5 or 6 pages long, and you could skip the first page without missing much. Experienced traders might want to check it out too.

  • #160,487
  • Feb 15, 2009 12:25am Feb 15, 2009 12:25am
Quoting pkimnyc
for anyone who is interested.
Thanks, PK!

  • #160,488
  • Feb 15, 2009 4:38am Feb 15, 2009 4:38am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I'd like to recommend that new traders read through this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=151457

It's only 5 or 6 pages long, and you could skip the first page without missing much. Experienced traders might want to check it out too.


Interesting reading. I like the part about luring traders to a second place.

Traditionally it is true that it takes money to make money, but with currency markets and access to leverage we don't need a large start up capital. So, I simply cannot understand why anyone who could even make just 20pips a day would want to manage accounts. For what??, you would have absolutely no need to, nor would you want the headache. I am therefore deeply suspicious of anyone who claims to manage accounts.
  • #160,489
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:41am Feb 15, 2009 5:41am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Thanks, PK!

anytime my friend.
  • #160,490
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:24am Feb 15, 2009 7:24am
Quoting The Dodge
My first post on here,just wanting to pick the fine JPY brains out there as to possible reactions to Japanese GDP Sunday/Monday morning,which has received a forewarning of being monsterously bad.Is this likely to be a turning point for the yen safe haven status and a breakout of usd/jpy,and what would be effect on jpy crosses of dollar strength or would they rally with nikkei on cheaper yen.Alternatively could yen possibly keep its anti-risk status ,turn in on itself pushing usd and jpy crosses lower.

mmm sounds like fore warning is a trap up move ... if news is bad watch for up
tick then wham ..drop as pros hit the strength

In my experience most news is factored in
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,491
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:26am Feb 15, 2009 7:26am
Quoting FxChi
I'm thinking temporary bottom here on S&P with more probable move to 915 (assuming Volume on WHC trader is somewhat accurate)....

look at earlier posting on bearish wedge on daily s&p ..... might break down this week
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,492
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:30am Feb 15, 2009 7:30am
Quoting GodfreyH
Interesting reading. I like the part about luring traders to a second place.

Traditionally it is true that it takes money to make money, but with currency markets and access to leverage we don't need a large start up capital. So, I simply cannot understand why anyone who could even make just 20pips a day would want to manage accounts. For what??, you would have absolutely no need to, nor would you want the headache. I am therefore deeply suspicious of anyone who claims to manage accounts.

20 pip sounds like peanuts .... take a 1000 account , make 20 pips a day with 2% risk per trade ( wait for perfect trade set up ) theo nly issues you will have in 4 years is will a broker fill a 1000 standard lot position ?

20 pips is a day really grows
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,493
  • Edited 8:37am Feb 15, 2009 7:54am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting malcolmb14
look at earlier posting on bearish wedge on daily s&p ..... might break down this week
Quoting Piters
With S&P almost the same, consolidation. I am expecting:

...any rejection form this continuation pattern, would simply show us only one way, breaking the pattern and BEAR trend continuation


Actualy much Sooner then it looks like. Have a look: [as I posted on 2 feb 2009]

  1. HD on daily
  2. Rejection, and Double Top [green dash]
  3. Testing and rejection from 50 ema [daily]
  4. testing the lower TL on that Symetrycal Wedge [continuation]
  5. Rejection from CCI 0 line [Daily]
  6. HD bearish [4h]
  7. H/S on [4h]
  8. H/S on CCI [4h]
  9. Rejection from CCI 0 line [4h]
  10. Pushing Down the NeckLine [4h]

MEN, last time when we had this, in September:

  1. we dropped 400points on S&P
  2. we dropped 5500 pips on GY

Good luck to ALL:

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  • #160,494
  • Feb 15, 2009 8:10am Feb 15, 2009 8:10am
Inserted Video


what do you guys make out of this?

doesn't look good for uj shorts, therefore geppy shorts from my understanding, for the time being.
  • #160,495
  • Feb 15, 2009 8:19am Feb 15, 2009 8:19am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting malcolmb14
look at earlier posting on bearish wedge on daily s&p ..... might break down this week

I see you don't have the same volume I have 4 days ago. Hmmm...I was factoring that in as signal of strength in background. I have to admit, now the bearish wedge does look a bit more intimidating. I was actually thinking this could turn into a double bottom if it starts to base a little. In any case, I know it's completely countertrend and I haven't seen any confirmation PA clue's. As always though, great analysis Malc!
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #160,496
  • Feb 15, 2009 8:57am Feb 15, 2009 8:57am
Quoting pkimnyc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJMloXttVwA

what do you guys make out of this?

doesn't look good for uj shorts, therefore geppy shorts from my understanding, for the time being.
I'm glad you posted this as this is a concern of mine.

If we put technicals aside, I see G/U to continue south. However, with Japan in the situation they are in, I believe it's only a matter of time before govt intervention. Not to mention the fact that their economy appears to be the second worse right now.

Having said this, Fundimentally, GU would continue down while I suspect UJ will head up. Where does this put Geppy? Either consolidation or follows the path of the stronger move between the 2 pairs. Right now, it appears U/J will be stronger of the two.

I'm still short but am ready to go long if things play out as i suspect they could.

B
  • #160,497
  • Feb 15, 2009 9:08am Feb 15, 2009 9:08am
Quoting bigcoupe
I'm glad you posted this as this is a concern of mine.

If we put technicals aside, I see G/U to continue south....
thanks for your insight bc.
  • #160,498
  • Edited 9:35am Feb 15, 2009 9:08am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting bigcoupe

Having said this, Fundimentally, GU would continue down while I suspect UJ will head up. Where does this put Geppy? Either consolidation or follows the path of the stronger move between the 2 pairs. Right now, it appears U/J will be stronger of the two.

B
Have a look my third chart, GY follows ES and US markets. If they sunk, Gy goes with..

Inserted Video


Btw, we had the worst GDP report in USA last week, and USD run... there is not guarantee that jap. gover. will make any intervention.

From the orher side, they are buying all good companies World Wide.. easy. they are Cheap..
  • #160,499
  • Feb 15, 2009 9:35am Feb 15, 2009 9:35am
Quoting Piters
Have a look my third chart, GY follows ES and US markets. If they sunk, Gy goes with..

Btw, we had the worst GDP report in USA last week, and USD run... there is not guarantee that jap. gover. will make any intervention.

From the orher side, they are buying all good companies World Wide.. easy. they are Cheap..

USD is considered safe haven when US stock market drops ... go figure .. the US is broke !!!

there has been some interesting activity in the bond market as there is some rumblings of US interest rates going up
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,500
  • Feb 15, 2009 9:40am Feb 15, 2009 9:40am
Quoting malcolmb14
USD is considered safe haven when US stock market drops ... go figure .. the US is broke !!!

there has been some interesting activity in the bond market as there is some rumblings of US interest rates going up
LOL I'll say keep to technicals [1min/5min] and leave the rest of B/S to them to fix

Pound is Gone, it is about to drop;
EU is about to go UP, USD down;
All those money in US, are creating an Inflation, so it is possible for US to raise the rates.
YEN futures,had a double top and H/S on daily
The market is gone, we are waiting on every minute to drop bellow 7000
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Mathematics, who is the WORST here
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