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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #160,441
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:08pm Feb 13, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting bigcoupe
I'm still in love with my shorts and left 2 open over the weekend.

Based on what I see, we have a possible double top on UJ. I also see 50%+ retrace on GU.

My SL is basically if UJ breaks out.

Have a good weekend all.
wow, this might play out nicely bc.
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  • #160,442
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:23pm Feb 13, 2009 6:23pm
Quoting pkimnyc
wow, this might play out nicely bc.

does the morning star on daily play out ... and the top of this channel break to the upside

or do we see 124 by early next week ..... now that the stimulus package has been decided on there maybe less indecision in the markets next week.

does look like the rsx is about ready to roll over on the 4 hour

the ES is hovering just aove that 800 level at 820 .. it would not take much to drop her thru support to mid 750.



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  • #160,443
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:28pm Feb 13, 2009 6:28pm
live quotes
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  • #160,444
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:29pm Feb 13, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting bigcoupe
I'm still in love with my shorts and left 2 open over the weekend.

Based on what I see, we have a possible double top on UJ. I also see 50%+ retrace on GU.

My SL is basically if UJ breaks out.

Have a good weekend all.

love those guys at zulu ...

some at the top have 585,000 gained to date and max draw down 590,000 . so if not trading demo they would have been blown up a long time ago ....lol
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  • #160,445
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:58pm Feb 13, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting newkidfx
live quotes
while there are no changes for uj and cable, yet geppy moves.... i don't know..
in fact, their geppy quote was different than my broker when they opened last week.
  • #160,446
  • Feb 13, 2009 7:04pm Feb 13, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting pkimnyc
while there are no changes for uj and cable, yet geppy moves.... i don't know..
in fact, their geppy quote was different than my broker when they opened last week.
I rely on Dukascopy for quotes after 4pm since IBFX closes, they say 131.83/88.
  • #160,447
  • Feb 13, 2009 8:21pm Feb 13, 2009 8:21pm
Why it's important to follow your trading rules.

Inserted Video


TC
Buy the dips, Sell the rallies.
  • #160,448
  • Feb 13, 2009 8:56pm Feb 13, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting pkimnyc
wow, this might play out nicely bc.
Ouch...that hurt. I didnt see that!

That's what's nice about the forums.

Hmm...I may be closing positions at Sun open.

B
  • #160,449
  • Feb 13, 2009 10:48pm Feb 13, 2009 10:48pm
Hi folks

Now the stimulas package has been passed by both house and noticed that dow futures is down 158 points from friday's close. G 7 around and us closed on monday will have lot of volatility in the market i guess.

Views on next week from our experts please

Balaji
  • #160,450
  • Feb 14, 2009 8:38am Feb 14, 2009 8:38am
Quoting bigcoupe
Ouch...that hurt. I didnt see that!

That's what's nice about the forums.

Hmm...I may be closing positions at Sun open.

B
this might provide possible trade set up in 4 hr chart.

break of 92.40 (say about 10 pips above) will negate my thought of going short
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  • #160,451
  • Feb 14, 2009 8:48am Feb 14, 2009 8:48am
The trend is still down regardless of stimulus package.
By the way, stimulus package amount is lower of what Obama/his economists wanted at the beginning
  • #160,452
  • Feb 14, 2009 9:37am Feb 14, 2009 9:37am
that is correct. i am posting a couple of charts that i find relevant for my next week trading setup.

let's start with daily: dotted lines represent monthly high/low. as you can see, we still have lower highs - no sign of trend reversal, yet; more, the daily oscillators are overbought (cci and rapid rsi). a very good setup for short positions, IF previous monthly high (141.53) is not taken. the question is, has the drop already begun at 137.33? it would appear so, but let's take a look at h4 & 40min charts.

h4 chart shows dotted lines (violet & yellow) for weekly highs/lows. as of now, we have higher highs and higher lows so don't start horsing around with shorts unless last week's low is taken (that is, 127.10). if this one is taken before 141.53, then down we go.
we had a nice hidden bullish divergence that has played out (or still is), but right now we can see a hidden bearish divergence - if this is confirmed, then the bias is to the down side.

40min chart has daily highs/lows as dotted lines. we had a higher daily high. again, careful with shorts until we see a lower low on daily. if you decide to go short @ 131.20, then be aware that 100 FE is at 130.70, still not enough to break last day's low @ 129.10; the whole thing might reverse.

now, what to look for:
- previous monthly high: 141.53; if broken, i suspect we will go up to 156.
- previous weekly low: 127.10; if broken, chances are for a new historical low.
- previous weekly high: 137.33; if broken, then 141.53 will be tested and in this case i favor the chance of going even higher, see above.
- other relevant values as of now: 129.45 - support for daily; 131.25 - support for h4.

that's it. enjoy the weekend!

Quoting marcb
The trend is still down regardless of stimulus package.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #160,453
  • Feb 14, 2009 10:42am Feb 14, 2009 10:42am
Quoting pkimnyc
this might provide possible trade set up in 4 hr chart.

break of 92.40 (say about 10 pips above) will negate my thought of going short


Same plan. Although I may give it more than 10 pips.

To all:
The markets in the US are closed on Monday including banks
  • #160,454
  • Feb 14, 2009 10:50am Feb 14, 2009 10:50am
Quoting bigcoupe


Same plan. Although I may give it more than 10 pips.

To all:
The markets in the US are closed on Monday including banks
  • #160,455
  • Feb 14, 2009 1:33pm Feb 14, 2009 1:33pm
looking at the ES .....

wedge formation = continuation pattern on the daily.

rsx in red = down , bearish 50 / 14/ 8 /4 moving average stack .. not looking good ....

from a chart perspective we break 800 next week .... that means GJ should follow .

the futures dropped 10 points into close on Friday , that is also the 100 pip drop some saw in the gj .

If we get a daily close under 128.70 then the chances for a new low are very high , specially if the ES gets a daily close under 800


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  • #160,456
  • Feb 14, 2009 1:52pm Feb 14, 2009 1:52pm
for anyone who is interested.
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  • #160,457
  • Feb 14, 2009 2:01pm Feb 14, 2009 2:01pm
looking at some of the daily charts next week could be very interesting on eu , gu gj and gbpchf .. and dailies are not looking like up.

GBPCHF could have another 1700 pips drop left in here

look at the wick on top of the daily candle on an effort to rise she got hammered with sellers.

I commented on this one last weekend as being a sell for 800 pips ... not she may be setting up for next leg down

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  • #160,458
  • Feb 14, 2009 2:09pm Feb 14, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
looking at some of the daily charts next week could be very interesting on eu , gu gj and gbpchf .. and dailies are not looking like up.

GBPCHF could have another 1700 pips drop left in here

look at the wick on top of the daily candle on an effort to rise she got hammered with sellers.

I commented on this one last weekend as being a sell for 800 pips ... not she may be setting up for next leg down

Attachment

thought I would look at the daily chf ..... look at the bear div building in rsx....

plotting 1-2-3 sell on that we cxould see parity.

that would make sense if the overall markets tanks as money would be moved in to gold ....

a close above 1.1775 negates the 1-2-3 sell formation

I really like the gbpchf sell now

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  • #160,459
  • Feb 14, 2009 2:16pm Feb 14, 2009 2:16pm
thought we may have a h&s set up .. now not so sure.

will have to wait

I prefer rsx and trendlines to head and shoulders. ..... the moving averages are in a bear stack and we have a 1-2-3 sell , that if we get a 4 hour close under 1.4280 comes in to play.

1.3130 (1000 pip targets)


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  • #160,460
  • Feb 14, 2009 2:20pm Feb 14, 2009 2:20pm
could only see a hint of this on daily ...... UJ chart .. so flipped down to 12 hour chart

bearish divergence.

look s like flag to me .... bear flag ....

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