PowerTrading/The River | Page 30 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

River oscillator indicator 2 replies

Searching for a EMA/Envelope (river) cross-over Alert 5 replies

River Theory Trades 135 replies

GBPJPY River Theory 14 replies

Attachments: PowerTrading/The River
Exit Attachments

PowerTrading/The River

  • #581
  • Feb 5, 2009 8:12am Feb 5, 2009 8:12am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
I've been concentrating purely on backtesting and posting personal comments on this system at my blog. I must say I'm always looking for any free time I have to look into charts. There's just so many new discoveries and things that only the chart can teach me

Here's a thought of mine

14Feb 2007

We see the usual zone in the morning. Candle opening outside of the zone, we go Long.

Here, we see the appearance of a doji. But, in my opinion, as we're in 15M here, candlestick pattern is less important, in my opinion. If you're a candlesticker, you want to observe it on the 1H or 4H. Just a thought for you to comment on.

Several zones in the take profit area and continuous breakouts. An exit can be taken at the 127.0 Fibo area to safely bank in 37pips first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14feb.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #582
  • Feb 5, 2009 11:53pm Feb 5, 2009 11:53pm
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
" If there weren't for the spikes, everyone would be rich by playing Forex!"

I definitely agree with this.

Backtest : 23 Feb 2007

We enter Long at zone breakout + CCI TL break. We see the price having trouble breaking the 100.0 Fibo level.

Usually we put our SL at the opposite river or further at the Fibo. As we can see here, the spike took me out at -40pips.

( I once was very furious of how these spikes took me out, but then i also remembered how I didnt use any SL and I exited my trade at -100 pips.)

Okay, moving on, we see a 2nd zone breakout and CCI TL confirmed it. Long here and exit when price touches 127.0 Fibo or MA crossing + CCI TL break. Around +40pips here which makes a break even day though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 23feb.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #583
  • Feb 6, 2009 12:04am Feb 6, 2009 12:04am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Backtest : 20 Feb 2007

Price is very choppy.

The 0415 price breaking the zone is not advisable to take.
- Price not yet touch Mid River
- 0800GMT rule

At 0815, the price breaks the zone and touches Mid River. I entered Short here.
SL at the opposite river? I don't think so. The range is too small (15+ pips). I prefer the SL to be above the 100.0 Fibo level.

1st exit at zone breakout.
2nd exit at MA crosses + CCI TL break.

Reversal can be done at the zone breakout, in my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20feb.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #584
  • Feb 6, 2009 12:07am Feb 6, 2009 12:07am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Backtest : 26 Feb 2007

The 1st zone breakout doesn't signal me for a Short, since the CCI TL is being a very strong support.

Then, the price goes ranging again. LWMA50 & MA84 have a date in the Mid River towards the end of the day. I think that the CCI TL definitely helped us to filter out a lot of bad trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 26feb.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #585
  • Feb 6, 2009 2:29am Feb 6, 2009 2:29am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KsOzp84BcW...320/2feb09.gif

I feel this week price action is a little different than the usual, hence I'll like to give my own humble observations.

2 Feb 2009
Earlier the CCI TL breaks and the price went into a new Fibo level. But i didn't enter because I'm not that confident.

Zone breakout at 0900 + CCI TL break and I short here. Breaking each Fibo and zone is a good thing for us.

Exits at the CCI TL break & MA crossing

Here's what I observe:

If we have a Tl drawn far back, yes it can indicate strong if drawn correctly. But if you've drawn a divergence..... you'll be losing trades. (although divergence in 15M may not be strong)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_KsOzp84BcW...divergence.gif

You'll notice how price moves up but didn't break the TL. That's why i feel that drawing too many TL is not a crime (:

Hence, caution on drawing TL at CCI, make sure the price obeys it.
  • #586
  • Feb 6, 2009 2:25pm Feb 6, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting LSs
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KsOzp84BcW...320/2feb09.gif

I feel this week price action is a little different than the usual, hence I'll like to give my own humble observations.

2 Feb 2009
Earlier the CCI TL breaks and the price went into a new Fibo level. But i didn't enter because I'm not that confident.

Zone breakout at 0900 + CCI TL break and I short here. Breaking each Fibo and...

Hey there, great that you are keeping this thread alive
  • #587
  • Feb 12, 2009 3:10am Feb 12, 2009 3:10am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Been quiet for a little while because in my demo account i was forward testing and losing quite a number of trades.

(As a newbie, you might have guessed I look at other system, indicators and such to get out of this losing streak. Yes I did. But I slap myself awake and back on the river!)

I've been getting whipsaw and fake zone breakouts. I'm actually in the middle of tuning this system. So guys, just give me a little more time before you start commenting ya (:

P.S I have a feeling it has something to do with the 4H MA5 & MA20.
  • #588
  • Feb 12, 2009 3:24am Feb 12, 2009 3:24am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
4H chart.
Look at the attached chart and what could you see at the highlighted areas?
Do you see something in common they have?

Black MA = LWMA50
Olive MA = SMA 84

These two MA has been around since PT originally introduce the system. Notice when price touches either MA, it will chase towards the other MA.

Visualize the gap between the both MAs as a black hole. When price touches it, price will get sucked in and exit on the other MA. The other time frame might be not suitable to see this black hole in action.

Sometimes price reverses before it goes on all the way to the other side.

Note : There are some fake ones, but one similarity I see in all the fakes one are none of them touch the Mid River. Also best to wait for candle close confirmation inside the black hole.

This is a very very early stage of my observation. Comment please~ (:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bu.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #589
  • Feb 12, 2009 3:33am Feb 12, 2009 3:33am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
RedPadisha, you must be very good in PA. Would like to hear some tip/comments from you! Advices will do great for me too!

Anyway, here is an example of those fake black holes I'm talking about. Notice how the price doesn't manage to cross the river and goes back in the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bu2.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #590
  • Feb 13, 2009 2:23am Feb 13, 2009 2:23am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Well, today went well. I'm up 100+ pips now but I'm putting my Stop Loss tighter by the minute.

Reason : Price hasn't touch Mid River (15M)

So, let's see if price later will come back down to touch to Mid River.

By the way, I'm starting to feel the FX Sniper CCI Indicator is not much of use in the 15M because there are too many divergence (fake ones since price moves too fast). I am now starting to draw CCI TL on the 4H timeframe only. Maybe with a 1H time frame CCI on the 15M will do. Anyone has such indicator? Or maybe river traders could suggest a better indicator? This is just my thought anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13feb09.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #591
  • Feb 13, 2009 7:08am Feb 13, 2009 7:08am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Yip, looks like we are right about the price going down to touch the Mid River.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13feb092.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #592
  • Feb 13, 2009 11:26am Feb 13, 2009 11:26am
Quoting LSs
RedPadisha, you must be very good in PA. Would like to hear some tip/comments from you! Advices will do great for me too!

Anyway, here is an example of those fake black holes I'm talking about. Notice how the price doesn't manage to cross the river and goes back in the trend.
I've become rusty at this method and the pair, I mainly trade the Eurusd at the moment with pure PA and a few basic ma on the 5 min, I feel like I am about to ditch the ma's, but fibs are still good. My problem with this method and indeed any method these days that involves drawng a price boundary round a range and waiting for price to just break it or some pattern to form means nothing since group behaviour is so much more fickle with banks going down and the like.

In my humble opinion (and I mean humble), the two most important skills to master in trading at the moment are

1> Being able to judge if today is the day to trade, is the market behaving in the right way.

and most importantly

2> Judging if price is behaving in the the right way before you take the trade, is volume right.

The last piont seems more complex and and exciting then I thought would have been the case ( well at least I think so as I am learning it) but it seems to mean that any reliance on indicators must be scrapt.

Please take these points as from a fellow learner, and if you disagree please say so and rip me apart

Cheers and keep up the great work
  • #593
  • Feb 13, 2009 5:50pm Feb 13, 2009 5:50pm
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Right on, redpadisha! Totally agree with you especially the first point there. I sometimes dislike MA too as lower TimeFrame gives too much take cross (even higher TimeFrame too (: )

I also begin to understand that there are some trades that are not for me.

By putting in mind that I must not capture every trades, I am exploring this system for ways to satisfy the first point and I think I almost get it. I think I'll post it up later for fellow factorians to comment.

BTW, I PA !
  • #594
  • Feb 17, 2009 2:04am Feb 17, 2009 2:04am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
To tell you the truth, I'm terribly bad at trading this live. I'm locking myself in my room, with printed charts all over the table trying to figure out why I made loss in recent trades.

I always love to read back earlier posts by PT and other people like Aidan who contributes much to this system.

PT once posted " Don't forget the 4H..."

Don't forget the 4H... Hmm.....
  • #595
  • Feb 17, 2009 4:58am Feb 17, 2009 4:58am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Quoting PowerTrader
I use the 4 hr to get a look at what is happening over a longer period of time. The short term moves are always just a part of the big picture so you have to know the fibs on the daily and 4hr to have a better guess at where we are heading. Now the break of the trend line is when we get a candle on the other side. Consolidation is when price gathers in one area and ranges. This is what we trade, the break out of consolidation.

PT
I somehow think this post by PT is the most valuable information I neglected.

Drawing as many TL and Fibo lines at the 4H is as important in 15 minutes. All these while I've only drawn on the 15M chart. I must spend extra time studying the 4H chart as well.
  • #596
  • Feb 17, 2009 5:46am Feb 17, 2009 5:46am
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
GBPUSD in my opinion has a very wide range.

I took Short after the break of Fibo level. To my horror, the price goes reverse back up. My SL was at the other end of the river.

So I took a look at the 4H chart. Price is at the bottom river, MA is suggesting a short (btw, personally, i seldom look at MA).

So what went wrong?

In my observations, and as PT mentioned, trend line, fibo and zone breakout are all needed to see price action. So, at the 4H chart, you can see the bottom TL giving a good support to the price, and 100.0 Fibo is also doing the same.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 17feb09.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 17feb094h.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #597
  • Feb 17, 2009 9:24pm Feb 17, 2009 9:24pm
LSs..
May i know what setting MA's for navy and orange colour..?
  • #598
  • Feb 17, 2009 10:41pm Feb 17, 2009 10:41pm
  •  LSs
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: I switched to the smarter side | 84 Posts
Quoting okawa
LSs..
May i know what setting MA's for navy and orange colour..?
Orange = LWMA5
Navy = LWMA 20

Please note that the MA is not from the original River, I'm still experimenting with the MA. BTW, I personally not a fan of MA.
  • #599
  • Apr 13, 2009 10:49am Apr 13, 2009 10:49am
river
  • #600
  • Jul 30, 2011 1:33am Jul 30, 2011 1:33am
Quoting PowerTrader
Thanks for the welcome back. I hope you are doing well. I was put into temporary retirement from posting do to conflict with NFA guidelines but have now worked them out. I am trading full time and I will be posting again soon here. I had hoped to get started but have just been too busy.

Take care,
Bill
Hey PT,

First of all thank you for sharing this wonderful and amazing system.
I have been following the river system for a long time now, recently i have also started trading the zones you have taught us on this thread.
I think using the breakout panca eagle indicator would be helpful in identifying the zones easily! if combined with the fibs.
So please review it and let me know your view on it.
I have attached the indicator below.

Thanks a lot!!
Shreyash
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Breakout_PANCA_EAGLE.mq4   7 KB | 551 downloads
0 traders viewing now