Winning trading system

My Dogs hairy ******

Here is my theory:

When you buy, you do it because you expect the price will go higher. But you can buy only if someone else sells you. And why does he sell? Because he thinks the opposite way. Now who is right? Who is smarter? Why do you think that it is you? Why do you think your system is better? He also thinks so. Maybe he is the guy from the next thread of another "winning system"

What I think is that there are so many systems, so many indicators, so many styles, so many types of traders, that eventually this gives a completely random price movement. Ok, not totally random, only pseudo-random, there are trends and news and global economic effects etc., but they are also unpredictable, unless you are one in the know. So for most of us, it is virtually random.

And if a game is random, nobody can win in the long run. Of course, nobody should lose either, the balance should be a break even. But this is where the brokers, the spreads and the commissions come in the picture. In roulette you would not win or lose either in the long term. But that zero...

Forex is a new game. Most of the people haven't even heard about it some years ago. When casinos were "invented", people also belived for decades that they can beat the bank. They also invented "winning systems". Now we all smile at them.

Forex is much younger. And it is a thousand times much more "complicated". People are lured into it much easier, believeing that they are "traders", not just gamblers. But I think the point is the same.

I know my opinion is blasphemy. Someone will hate me because he thinks such opinions ruin his faith and hopes. Others because of endangering their business But I really do not want to harm anybody. I would be the happiest if someone could convince me and prove that I am wrong. (I want to be rich too ) I wish someone could bring up real arguments against me. Not only phrases like "every system can be a winner", "trend is your friend" etc. But real facts! Real charts, real reports of real accounts. Not just some fake charts of worthless EA-s that we all know how they work, and how they can wipe out an account in one round.

I would like someone to stand up and clearly proclaim: "I made x% net profit in the past y month on forex!" If there is no such person, then what are we all doing here? What do we spoonfeed to each other? Blind leads the sightless?

Because successful (retail) traders are humble. Because successful traders have nothing to prove. Because successful traders have better things to do with their time than arguing with people who will not believe them anyway, even if they posted screenshots of accounts, or dismiss records as lucky streaks etc.. Because successful traders are aware of the sort of attention that they might bring upon themselves. Because forums are generally a waste of time. The above are perfectly legitimate reasons why people might chose not to post 'look at me, I make a living trading.' Many genuinely great traders have, perhaps naively, opened threads with the good natured intentions of explaining their approach to trading. They last a while, but the amount of time it takes to answer the same questions over and over from people who do not listen or take the time to read the whole thread, the cynics and naysayers who drop in and give them shit etc., generally outweighs the perceived benefit of helping people out and 'giving something back'. Some of the most popular threads in the past and currently at this and other forums have gone this way. The problem is that everyone in these forums has some kind of axe to grind. You've got the guys who stalk the Trading Systems threads, who jump from one system to another because they haven't figured out their own plan. You've got the guys who hang around the Interactive Trading threads looking to hang onto the coat-tails of some of the posters who sound like they know what they are doing, and some of the people who hang around there who like calling trades and making predictions. You've got the people who come in here to learn the basics and try and leech some knowledge. You've got the dickheads who come in here and try and sell some crap etc.. Everyone has got a reason to be here or we wouldn't be. Nothing wrong with that, but the successful trader who tends to attract more of the attention will find themselves with less and less incentive to spend time here and more reasons not to. Faith? Not sure if I like that word, not in the religious sense that it is usually associated with anyway - perhaps it is better to distinguish betwen blind faith (hope) and informed faith, upon which you have enough evidence that you are willing to have trust in and follow. How do you aquire this faith? Build a trading plan that covers every eventuality and every action within that plan has a reason for behind it. Over time watch the market respect the wisdom of the plan, if it has any. Demo trade for a while, observe the plan at work. Keep a journal, record every trade, every thought, assess every decision. Over time the risk and uncertainty ebbs away, and is replaced by faith and confidence in the plan and yourself - and this absolutely does not happen overnight. Sure, you'll most likely have rocky patches, but once you have settled on an approach you tie yourself to the mast and wait for the storm to end. If you keep jumping from system to system you will never learn the discipline. Another thing; keep it simple, keep it obvious, keep it logical. Focus on one set-up, and one set-up only - say for instance only stand out obvious poke you in the eye blatant head and shoulders formations on the 1H and above time frame (just an example) and master it. You won't get many trades but you'll have plenty of time to study price action and learn discipline by not trading when there is no set-up. Less is more. Sounds boring and it'll take ages and won't make you a billionaire by Friday close, but I can guarantee you that head and shoulders patterns will always occur at some point, will often be seen at market tops and bottoms (but not always, and neither will every H&S be a top or bottom) and can be very profitable. I recall a fairly well known member here at FF traded this strategy and this strategy alone profitably. Don't like H&S's? Pick something else then, 1-2-3's at S/R, wedge breakouts, open range breakouts, pullback and retests etc.. You can only prove it to yourself, can't nobody else put the beliefs into your mind, and you don't strike me as someone who is easily persuaded anyhow.

There are systems that beat the casinos, also; note the recent counting-cards movie, plus I knew a statistics professor who made a visit there on breaks and consistently made money. I don't know anyone in forex who has made it, nor do I have to. The playground is already in the trader who studied countless hours of live charts. You increase your odds the more you know what works, and faith comes from how well you act with these odds in mind.

The next posts are just pro and con of Random Walk Theory.

In my testing, I might be lucky to find one strategy in 100 that *might* be a winner, i.e. have a positive expectancy.

On the other hand, without proper money management, EVERY strategy, including those that seem to be winning strategies, will be a loser.

http://www.geocities.com/dabiomedici...s/image008.jpg

What can u interpret this carton, TJPDL?

Yes, definitely Forex is not for everyone.

i'm not for or against the gambling debate I'd just like to add that professional gamblers to exist they actually make a living from gambling and a good one especially poker.

this most mean they have made more money than they lost in the long run.