tdion's Almost Live Trades

I am forward testing my latest EA to see if it keeps its pace up. Everything is 100% mechanical. All trades are swings that take a week to a month to complete, so I will call them long before I take profit.

Backtest ROIs:
2001: 41%
2002: 130%
2003: 99%
2004: 160%
2005: 250%
2006: 120%
2007: 10% (1/1-3/23)

Rules:
Start balance $10,000.
All trades are H1 EURUSD w/ a 2 pip spread.
No swaps.
Risk: 2% per trade.
Max trades open: 2.

Trade #1
2007.03.21 22:00
buy 0.4 lots EURUSD @ 1.3380
1.3335 SL
1.3530 TP

SL: -47
New Balance: $9812
Pip Count: -47

Trade #2
2007.03.23 16:00
buy 0.5 lots EURUSD @ 1.3337
SL 1.3297
TP 1.3537

SL: -42
New balance: $9602
Pip Count: -89

The Euro Dollar has been flat the past few days.... still waiting for a new trade....

The EA I am forward testing uses seven different setups.... each one backtested for at least 1,500 pips over the last six years with low drawdown. The graph shows raw pip totals (over 11,000 after spreads removed.) There were only 500 trades.

It is very common to lose 10 to 15 trades in a row with this EA, but the Risk:Reward is very high.... two winners in a row will push to account up 10% or so after a drawdown.

My only concern is that some of the setups will start to fail in the coming months. In that case, drawdowns would become higher and the system would lose it's "edge."

Anyhow, thanks for reading....

Looks Good,tidion!!

Here are how Trades #1 & 2 look on my chart....

Trade #3
04.02.2007 00:00
sell 1.0 lots EURUSD @1.3375
SL 1.3395
TP 1.3175

Trade #4
04.02.2007 03:00
sell 0.3 lots EURUSD @ 1.3339
SL 1.3413
TP 1.3231

Trade #3
SL: -22
New Balance: $9382
Pip Count: -110

Trade #4
SL: -76
New Balance: $9139
Pip Count: -186

Trade 3's chart....

Trade 4's chart....

Oh well...losses are normal, they are as important as wins. But great that you also post losses so that your results don't get falsified and your journal doesn't make sense anymore. So keep it up!

The Euro gained strength yesterday, based on the German Manufacturing Report. The report could have just as easily worked in the EA's favor.

I'd like to point out that this EA only wins 1 in 4 every trades in the six year backtest, so starting with 4 consecutive losers isn't a suprise. Thanks.

tdion,what u stated about the report going in the EA's favor is absolutly true nothing can predict the future u,me or anyonelse ,anything can happen,through backtesting your system it has given u confidence to some extent of knowing what to expect. (to a certain degree) Only when drawdowns start to exceed the drawdowns of your backtesting results will u start to question your system.I can tell that your losses has no effect on you and thats how it is suppose to be, good for u. I respect all who are strong enough to post results for all to see good or bad not all are willing to do this.(not that there is anything wrong with that) but just wanted to say again good luck with your system and good luck to U!!

This thread is a work in progress, and rules will change as I continue to evolve the EA with new ideas. I guess I don't mind posting losses because I am not here to impress anyone.

My vision is to create a piece of software that will trade for me while I work my fulltime job. That being said, this EA will replace my 401K and hopefully put me in retirement early.

I will discuss some of my observations on this thread along with the trade calls. A few things on my mind right now are money management and drawdown. Don has wisely pointed out that large unanticipated drawdowns will occur. I have curvefit the functions to six years of data, and I hope good years are ahead based on previous market behavior. That being said, how do we deal with large drawdown?

Suppose I start with $10,000, and risk 5% a trade until the account reaches $100,000. At $100,000 I can reduce my risk per trade to 3%. In the same manner, I can reduce my risk per trade to 1% after the account reaches $500,000. As the account gets larger, large swings will inevitably come that could lose hundreds of thousands, so reduction of risk is appealing.

How exactly am I building this EA? I take a few profitable strategies, and combine them to cancel out each others drawdown. The idea is to have many irons in the fire at once. Here are two different strategies, and the effect of combining them.

Strategy 1:

Strategy 2:

Drawdowns are less severe. The double edged sword in all of this is when multiple strategies draw down simultaneously. All you can do is ride it out.

Combined result:

Trade #5
04.09.2007 22:00
Buy 0.5 lots EURUSD @ 1.3361
SL 1.3326
TP 1.3431

TP: +68
New Balance: $9479
Pip Count: -118

Trade #6
2007.4.12 05:00
buy 0.5 lots EURUSD @ 1.3460
SL 1.3420
TP 1.3660

Trade #7
04.16.2007 00:00
sell 0.9 lots EURUSD @ 1.3555
SL 1.3575
TP 1.3365

SL: -22
New Balance: $9281
Pip count: -140