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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #158,761
  • Edited 8:07am Feb 8, 2009 7:47am | Edited 8:07am
in case you think the trend has changed, take a look at this daily chart.
lower highs on monthly, OS levels on daily chart - looks like the perfect setup for a nice short on confirmation:
- hidden bearish divergence on daily;
- regular bearish divergence on h4 + almost ab=cd on h4 @ 137.30 (not shown here);
ALWAYS assume the main trend is intact until proven otherwise = unless 141.53 is taken, i will only look for short opportunities.
i also marked the last important levels based on daily PA: resistance @ 139.95, support @ 122.39.

p.s. typo: i meant OB levels on daily chart - stochastic is above 80, cci is ~180.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #158,762
  • Feb 8, 2009 7:59am Feb 8, 2009 7:59am
Quoting Scrat
in case you think the trend has changed, take a look at this daily chart.
lower highs on monthly, OS levels on daily chart - looks like the perfect setup for a nice short on confirmation:
- hidden bearish divergence on daily;
- regular bearish divergence on h4 + almost ab=cd on h4 @ 137.30 (not shown here);
ALWAYS assume the main trend is intact until proven otherwise = unless 141.53 is taken, i will only look for short opportunities.
i also marked the last important levels based on daily PA: resistance @ 139.95, support @ 122.39.
very close to my view mate.. looks to me like cat bounce.. and too early to play bulls songs.. just open your daily, and weekly

p.s. I am posting my market overview in very shortly.. but yes, i support your view, stated earlier, if we take 137.20/30 we go up to 144.30.
  • #158,763
  • Edited 8:33am Feb 8, 2009 8:18am | Edited 8:33am
there is something else i don't like in this setup.
look at the fibo time on h4, we only need about one more day for the move 118.82-136.78 to become longer then the drop 141.53-118.82. in which case i would become careful about shorts for a while, because it would suggest a temporary stop to the downtrend = daily correction: either a retracement (maybe as high as 155?) or a flat.
so, if we make it to 144.50, then we won't see another historic low for quite some time.

p.s. in fact... i just looked back on the daily chart and i counted the daily candles of each retracement since we started the drop @ 215.xx.
guess what??? this one lasted 10 candles already, while the longest in the past lasted only 6 candles (sept. 16, 2008: 184.49 - 197.43).
we might see a longer than expected rally, or a consolidation. i will take this short, but i will be very careful. and i will start considering longs.

Quoting Piters
very close to my view mate.. looks to me like cat bounce.. and too early to play bulls songs.. just open your daily, and weekly

p.s. I am posting my market overview in very shortly.. but yes, i support your view, stated earlier, if we take 137.20/30 we go up to 144.30.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #158,764
  • Feb 8, 2009 8:21am Feb 8, 2009 8:21am
Quoting Scrat
there is something else i don't like in this setup.
look at the fibo time on h4, we only need about one more day for the move 118.82-136.78 to become longer then the drop 141.53-118.82. in which case i would become careful about shorts for a while, because it would suggest a temporary stop to the downtrend = daily correction: either a retracement or a flat.
so, if we make it to 144.50, then we won't see another historic low for quite some time.
great point.
  • #158,765
  • Feb 8, 2009 8:53am Feb 8, 2009 8:53am
and since i was talking about how long this move up lasted already, here is the daily chart with all relevant retracements since 215.xx and their candle count.
makes you wonder, is this just a dead bounce?
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #158,766
  • Feb 8, 2009 9:12am Feb 8, 2009 9:12am
I posted some Nasdaq, S&P, and DJII charts in my journal.. I am working on GU , uy and gy.

But we are facing a very inrteresting situaton.. We may go UP in very powefull Impulse, or just small retrace...

Nasdaq, S&P, and DJII are all in symetrical triangle.. that is continuation pattern. with strong Bear markets like we have, only one way is to expect the breakout.. to DOWN side..

have a look the levels important top watch.. any breakout to Up or downside, mark the next trend.. (continuation or reversal)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=154

Quoting Piters
Dow Jones Industrial Index:

  1. Strong Bear Trend
  2. consolidation zone
  3. forming continuation pattern [symetrical Triangle]
  4. below daily 50 ema and 90 ma
  5. Hidden bearish divergence

I am expecting to test 50 ema, and 90 sma with the upper TL of the wedge on possible break the previous HI. and then turn to down side with breakout and creating NEW LOW


Attached Thumbnails

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1234102032 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1234102032
  • #158,767
  • Feb 8, 2009 9:30am Feb 8, 2009 9:30am
From the other side, all those moves are basicaly on HOPE (again). On Soros and Obama package..

Next week is very interesting with the News.. they are all more or less expected to be bearish.

The NEW stimulative package, [similar to TARP deal.. we had a run, then senat rejection -> drop, then congress vote -> run again...] the voting machine is not that simple, we are maybe far from final vote for about a week or two...

To make this short... unless we clear, that wedges on Indices, (NASDAQ, S&P, and DJII) we are in Deep Sh***, we are in bear market.. we can have bounces, retracements, bull run.. but they are good only for scalping...

MHO
  • #158,768
  • Feb 8, 2009 9:41am Feb 8, 2009 9:41am
Quoting Piters
I posted some Nasdaq, S&P, and DJII charts in my journal.. I am working on GU , uy and gy.

But we are facing a very inrteresting situaton.. We may go UP in very powefull Impulse, or just small retrace...

Nasdaq, S&P, and DJII are all in symetrical triangle.. that is continuation pattern. with strong Bear markets like we have, only one way is to expect the breakout.. to DOWN side..

have a look the levels important top watch.. any breakout to Up or downside, mark the next trend.. (continuation or reversal)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=154...
Based on your analysis for SP500 you see this index going up at most to 900 level...correct?
What if it gets to 950? Will this invalidate your analysis?
Thanks
  • #158,769
  • Feb 8, 2009 9:46am Feb 8, 2009 9:46am
Quoting marcb
Based on your analysis for SP500 you see this index going up at most to 900 level...correct?
What if it gets to 950? Will this invalidate your analysis?
Thanks
YES, I believe so, I am just pointing the levels to watch.. they are important. if we break to up side, then we are most likely in some reversal move..
  • #158,770
  • Edited 10:43am Feb 8, 2009 9:51am | Edited 10:43am
GU, one of the best characteristic of GU is that she is respecting 50ema. That is why we are having the same on GY.. You can open your charts.. daily, weekly, 4h, ect.. always the same...

when we have an impulse move towards the 50 ema, always there is a bounce, when we are in consolidaton mode, chopping (the price is averaging very quck) then we can see few crosses above/bellow the line..

Just posting my daily GU.. no further comments needed.!
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  • #158,771
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:30am Feb 8, 2009 10:30am
Quoting oleevier
Hi ,
there is another possible scenario.
there is plenty of time to develop correct setup for this WW.
so i will observe if it's going to follow these waves.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post2492014
well , maybe it was almost correct WW
too bad im chicken im not in whole move , i just bit some smaller moves

but i like draw WW , maybe after more trading day i will stick to them.

i modified actual WW because it was a little bit wrong draw before , now should be good
Any comments ?
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  • #158,772
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:41am Feb 8, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Piters
USDJPY, and another market mirror.

  1. Bear trend
  2. continuation pattern [symetrical wedge]
  3. testing the Upper TL
  4. expecting the breakout

I am expecting a bounce and break to down side..


Attached Thumbnails
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1234111101
  • #158,773
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:48am Feb 8, 2009 10:48am
Ok folks, that is all from me. Keep on your mind those level, if we break, we break on all markets, and we are probably going to see some hope and market recovery, but if we bounce from those levels, then we are in business as usual, means, Bear trend continuation..

See you all in week or two..

bye bye
  • #158,774
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:49am Feb 8, 2009 10:49am
Quoting oleevier
well , maybe it was almost correct WW
too bad im chicken im not in whole move , i just bit some smaller moves

but i like draw WW , maybe after more trading day i will stick to them.

i modified actual WW because it was a little bit wrong draw before , now should be good
Any comments ?
very nice.
  • #158,775
  • Feb 8, 2009 11:36am Feb 8, 2009 11:36am
Quoting Piters
Ok folks, that is all from me. Keep on your mind those level, if we break, we break on all markets, and we are probably going to see some hope and market recovery, but if we bounce from those levels, then we are in business as usual, means, Bear trend continuation..

See you all in week or two..

bye bye
Have a good vacation Piters
  • #158,776
  • Feb 8, 2009 11:40am Feb 8, 2009 11:40am
Quoting Petefaders
Notice that the 2nd large move down is double the percentage of the first move down in overall price % change.
Notice 1st major retrace is 12%, .382 fib

GET THIS: If 2nd large move down is double the percentage of the first..
what happed when I drew a double retrace of 24%..
Bingo! .382 fib!

keep in mind this is price percentage to fibb percentage comparason. I didn't realize the connection, wow!
*notice...

symmetry of movements pete .... you can find them on any time time .. once symmetry is broken then you can see major trend reversal
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  • #158,777
  • Feb 8, 2009 11:42am Feb 8, 2009 11:42am
Quoting Piters
Ok folks, that is all from me. Keep on your mind those level, if we break, we break on all markets, and we are probably going to see some hope and market recovery, but if we bounce from those levels, then we are in business as usual, means, Bear trend continuation..

See you all in week or two..

bye bye
thanks piters.
  • #158,778
  • Feb 8, 2009 11:43am Feb 8, 2009 11:43am
Quoting pkimnyc
very nice.
thank u
i wish i belive in what i see on charts
it would make me rich ;P
but very often something confuse me and i escape from certain moves

it looks like i need "some more" trading days
but after a while i will be sure of what i see on chart and trade that

and u guys very often make me sure , thank u for your comments and opinions
  • #158,779
  • Edited 11:59am Feb 8, 2009 11:47am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting malcolmb14
symmetry of movements pete .... you can find them on any time time .. once symmetry is broken then you can see major trend reversal
Cool, I will be keeping an eye particularly on symmetry of price % change vs fibb % change..this stuff is exciting to me...i'm such a dork. :nerd:
  • #158,780
  • Feb 8, 2009 12:04pm Feb 8, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting marcb
Based on your analysis for SP500 you see this index going up at most to 900 level...correct?
What if it gets to 950? Will this invalidate your analysis?
Thanks

I see 900 but a very strong chance of 950 .

The reason ... most of the bad news is factored in now. We all know the banks are in trouble ..company earnings will be down etc etc , we know we are in recession. A NFP 0f 600 k is not that bad ... almost taken as good news as it is not 2 x expected. It does not make sense but sometimes you have to just trade what you see on the charts and forget all about news , just be aware of when it is coming out.

Lilmoe talked about a retracement in the 1st half of this year of dj to 11000 months ago ....

Es should test tl and if breaks this 950 and 1000 are on the cards as long as that lower tl holds.

Once the upper tl is broken it now become support

we have to play this one week by week .... but the charts are showing very strong up market for 1st quarter of this year (looking at daily and weekly charts)

1st I think for s&p we have to see test 900 and then see what state of affairs are then .... but strong possibility of 950 and even 1000 being hit

1000 s&p would likely equate to 150 gj .... just a guess.

I just looked at daily gj and have just drawn simple s/r lines on the charts.

135.90/ 139/141.5 / 147 / 150 / 154 / 160 / 164

those are the ' battle line' ... breaks one it now becomes support.

the move up will not be in a direct line .. with the retracmeents there should be load of opportunities to get long if not on the train already

Obviously when forecasting out a market so far in advance one always has to be aware that the volatility we are seeing right now is historical. The market conditions can change at any time .

From a weekly perspective we are right above the 8 ema ..... 134.5 I will call this my support for now and if we do not break this then the trend remains up

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