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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #158,701
  • Feb 7, 2009 6:33pm Feb 7, 2009 6:33pm
hello.. do you guys agree that gbp/jpy has changed trend? i you do so do you think we are going to test the lows again or do you think the lower coud test would be the 130s.

if it has change i dont want to be late as i did before.

thank you
  • #158,702
  • Feb 7, 2009 6:53pm Feb 7, 2009 6:53pm
Quoting justlovingit
hello.. do you guys agree that gbp/jpy has changed trend? i you do so do you think we are going to test the lows again or do you think the lower coud test would be the 130s.

if it has change i dont want to be late as i did before.

thank you
At this point in time I see the following
A retest of 139.05-140.37-141.50 if it succeds to get through all these levels and breaks 141.50 then I think we could say there is a change of trend...But if it fails at this point then we shall see a double top formation and a reversal and this could be the one to lead us to a new low if we break 128.50. I am having issues uploading my chart...apologies will upload it as soon as i can.
Good luck
  • #158,703
  • Feb 7, 2009 7:46pm Feb 7, 2009 7:46pm
Quoting justlovingit
hello.. do you guys agree that gbp/jpy has changed trend? i you do so do you think we are going to test the lows again or do you think the lower coud test would be the 130s.

if it has change i dont want to be late as i did before.

thank you
i, personally, don't think this is trend reversal yet for many reasons (not going to bother with those in here), but i could be wrong.
this is a current road map that i have on daily.
it sure looks to me there is still a lot of woods to chop on the up side scenario.
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  • #158,704
  • Feb 7, 2009 8:12pm Feb 7, 2009 8:12pm
no trend change here either ...


136 / 139/ 141 and then 145 are resistance zones as she works her way up the the chart. Asia typically retraces and is a nice time to get in on the pullbacks just before London open

the s @p looks like there maybe another 50 - 100 points up

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  • #158,705
  • Feb 7, 2009 8:39pm Feb 7, 2009 8:39pm
Quoting forexlion
not defending my call here at the time of mention, but though i would run through how the market conditions can change on you.

129 was call on feb 3rd .... we had 200 pip retrace to test 50 sma and now that gave us a nice trendline on the lows.

then another test and rejection of 130 with a bearish inside bar on 60 min ...sellers hit it but could only retrace 100 pips to test the 50 sma , we got spinning doji thingy right of the 50 sma .

Not to go into details but there was also several very strong volume spread analysis suggesting major selling at 130/

There was 3 days between mention of possible distribution and when it broke out. Not only that at the time 129 was definitely not the price to go long unless you like 200 pips of dd.

This is a nice chart to look at for the newer traders ... to see how a market can develop and if patient yiu can watch something over a course of 3 days

I have plotted the 50 sma and ema . I typically use the sma on higher moving averages.

Not sure what is going to happen next week. Alot of this up move is because of the stimulus package on offering right now. Not only that but the up move off 129 looks very steep on the slope ( impulsive.) we may see some form of nice pullback and as long as the last pivot low of 132 holds the trend remains up .

I think ultimately we will see 141 test before any major drop to the downside and maybe even higher if the s&p moves into the 950 zone as the dailies indicate it might , 78,6 % reatrcement of the move 141 to 119 ish is around this zone (136.70). A 60 min close above that and 141 is on the cards

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  • #158,706
  • Feb 7, 2009 8:56pm Feb 7, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting rav700
Forexlion,

Can you leave this forum...and take your crap back with you.

Wassup bigcoupe....this aint no chatroom mate....chill out and trade..didnt expect this from you ....

Rav,

I thought about it and I want to apologize to Malcomb. Malcomb, please accept this public apology.

I see allot of things in this thread that I disagree with. Let's face it, we have went from Aus's system to RSX, volume, and even planet alignment! However, although I may disagree with a couple of your outlooks/calls, that's what it's all about! Taking all the charts, data, and opinions in and coming up with a trade that fits each person. Some people are day traders and some are swingers like myself. And although I have been trading for a few years, I would be a fool to say I'm still not learning.

I'm glad to see that some technical talk is back up and all the BS has past. Again, please accept this apology.

B

On a side note...I do miss the chat room days!
  • #158,707
  • Feb 7, 2009 8:59pm Feb 7, 2009 8:59pm
I'm feeling sideways movement for G/J for this coming week IF and only IF G/U bounces as I expect. I expect U/J to continue it's upwards movement with the passage of some kind of stimulus package *sic*.

Here is why I ecpect G/U to retreat a bit.

Lets have a good week guys.
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  • #158,708
  • Feb 7, 2009 10:03pm Feb 7, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting bigcoupe
I'm feeling sideways movement for G/J for this coming week IF and only IF G/U bounces as I expect. I expect U/J to continue it's upwards movement with the passage of some kind of stimulus package *sic*.

Here is why I ecpect G/U to retreat a bit.

Lets have a good week guys.


Thanks for apology big ...

here is take on 8 hour gu ...

we may get one last push into 1.5000 .. seems logical before she retraces. I think with uj and gu heading in same direction that 200 pip move in GU would equate to 400 pip in GJ ( 141)

That bearish div on rsx should kick in some time soon though , but being on a higher time frame in this volatile market is could move 200 - 400 pips higher before it does

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  • #158,709
  • Feb 7, 2009 10:14pm Feb 7, 2009 10:14pm
wrong thread I know but this jumped out at me ... could be sell opp setting up if we get downward reaction to doji,

bear div setting up also

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  • #158,710
  • Feb 7, 2009 10:33pm Feb 7, 2009 10:33pm
No "pot of gold" promises here. But when price is trending I like to draw fib extensions from the previous weeks price range to project logical TP areas. When price is ranging I prefer to use the previous day, or an impulse move. Since it's been trending lately I'm using last weeks prices here, on a 4H chart.

I see one target at 141.18, and a tougher one at 143.88. For next week I favor the area just above 141 (after a retrace) where price will form a virtual double top. A convincing close above that top area might open the door for the next level up.
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  • #158,711
  • Feb 7, 2009 10:34pm Feb 7, 2009 10:34pm
Quoting malcolmb14
wrong thread I know but this jumped out at me ... could be sell opp setting up if we get downward reaction to doji,

bear div setting up also

Attachment
thank you for posting that chart but i have a question, in this case your signal is made up from divergence and doji (PA) only or there're another things you looked for?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #158,712
  • Feb 7, 2009 10:55pm Feb 7, 2009 10:55pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting malcolmb14
wrong thread I know but this jumped out at me ... could be sell opp setting up if we get downward reaction to doji,

bear div setting up also

Attachment
Question - how would you manage the short trade there? Break of the low?

Personally, my novice view, would be to wait for it to move higher closre to 175. But again, lately I'm only looking for 20 - 30 "easy" pips, so moving up would be nice...crazy hidden div there. Anyways always interested in learning what you have to say.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #158,713
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:00pm Feb 7, 2009 11:00pm
I see gap in my chart. Anyone here have the same happen on chart? and the price just close the Gap. Right now not clear if the price will retrace but if it happen 129.80 is my target before it continue move up to 140 area..
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  • #158,714
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:01pm Feb 7, 2009 11:01pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
No "pot of gold" promises here. But when price is trending I like to draw fib extensions from the previous weeks price range to project logical TP areas. When price is ranging I prefer to use the previous day, or an impulse move. Since it's been trending lately I'm using last weeks prices here, on a 4H chart.

I see one target at 141.18, and a tougher one at 143.88. For next week I favor the area just above 141 (after a retrace) where price will form a virtual double top. A convincing close above that top area might open the door for the next...
There's a ton on your chart. I'm assuming you're trading the breakout of the high/low with the targets displayed? There's so much on there I'm having diffuclty reading it...don't mean any disrespect by that but as an outsider I'm sure you understand.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #158,715
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:06pm Feb 7, 2009 11:06pm
call me crazy.... but this is also a possible scenario.
bearish hd cooking on weekly chart with price might be heading to 167.40.
nice confluence of 61 fib (from 197.5 - 119) and 50 fib (from 216 - 119)
50 ema will be around that area as well with 165.80 price pivot zone (if we move that high). macd histogram above 0 line.
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  • #158,716
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:11pm Feb 7, 2009 11:11pm
Quoting FxChi
There's a ton on your chart. I'm assuming you're trading the breakout of the high/low with the targets displayed? There's so much on there I'm having diffuclty reading it...don't mean any disrespect by that but as an outsider I'm sure you understand.
I do understand. I use the Gann HiLo, 5sma, 50ema, 100sma, and 200ema. All moving averages. They're pretty standard for this thread (or at least for what this thread used to be). Probably should have removed them since they weren't part of the analysis. Yes . . . the trade to the upside would be on a breakout of the previous week's high.
  • #158,717
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:22pm Feb 7, 2009 11:22pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I do understand. I use the Gann HiLo, 5sma, 50ema, 100sma, and 200ema. All moving averages. They're pretty standard for this thread (or at least for what this thread used to be). Probably should have removed them since they weren't part of the analysis. Yes . . . the trade to the upside would be on a breakout of the previous week's high.
LOL. Right on. Actually using the thread for what it was designed for. I'm going to crawl under a rock now. LOL. Good luck more experienced traders. I'm sure some of you are making bank on this pair and others are wishing suicide.

I'll stick to the kiddy pool Euro with nice volatility and easy predicaibilty until I can hang with the big boys.

By the way, in designing your business in managing other people's money, wouldn't you want to stick to a lower volatilty pair?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #158,718
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:27pm Feb 7, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting Obaidah
thank you for posting that chart but i have a question, in this case your signal is made up from divergence and doji (PA) only or there're another things you looked for?
no not really just those 2 things , but looking on a 4 hour time frame the rapid rsi is rolling over and price is to far above the 50 sma ( I have noticed that either price has to wait for its 50 sma to catch up or it will move back to the sma) . If price does retrace on gbpchf could be 500 - 600 pip move down.

i may be tempted to take a swing trade o this one if I get a little bounce back to 1.7250 ish

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  • #158,719
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:30pm Feb 7, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting malcolmb14
wrong thread I know but this jumped out at me ... could be sell opp setting up if we get downward reaction to doji,

bear div setting up also

Attachment
Ahh....I'm not the only one who spotted this

The double top on the 30 min prompted me to go short at 1.72484 with a SL at 173.100.

It's not a very strong double top but since we were oversold I thought it looked like a good R:R ratio.

B
  • #158,720
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:31pm Feb 7, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting FxChi
LOL. Right on. Actually using the thread for what it was designed for. I'm going to crawl under a rock now. LOL. Good luck more experienced traders. I'm sure some of you are making bank on this pair and others are wishing suicide.

I'll stick to the kiddy pool Euro with nice volatility and easy predicaibilty until I can hang with the big boys.

By the way, in designing your business in managing other people's money, wouldn't you want to stick to a lower volatilty pair?
Personally, I trade the majors and the commodity pairs as well. But I don't manage other people's money.
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