Nanningbob 60x90 EA

The recovery EA worked on my GBP/CHF trade, and closed all trades out for a profit. I never did have the GBP/JPY, and never will because I've seen that currency either go up or down crazily without hardly any retrace at all. My pair selection will now have only the GBP/USD in the "GBP" group as bob suggested. Personally, I want to avoid as many pairs as possible that go past a 3rd level, even though you can make more money when they do. I'd much rather have opnly pairs that go two levels and then retrace.
Question for nanningbob....when the EA closed out the GBP/CHF trades at a profit, it automatically opened another sell trade because the pair was still over the green lines. Is there a good way to avoid this? Just turn off the EA?

dear mr.paradoxical,

I give them fairly,
little bit slower with win
thanks for any experience
I hope the time is better asia
best regards
josef

Sorry...but i don't understand the quit problem!!
For example i stop this morning before Eur session....but i stop the EA Function on top bar and leave to continue the rest opened trades...
But i think you intend different mode.
In effect is the first day in 1 week that account go back!!
my demo account in 1 week grow from 3000 to 4000 until now with 22 currencies and standard 3 level system like manual!!
I try to put slot from .01 to .02 now but freeze everything...after 30 min. MT4 continue to be blocked!!!
I restart platform and open immediatly new trades but after blocked again!!
What possible uppend....
Tank you in advance...

Hi, Dear Bob:

Many Thanks for your efforts keeping this monster system evolving.

if running 5x24, Today should be a bad day due to gbpchf's trend. at least for my demo.

i've been following your system for some days. i've been using various martingale for some other occasions. therefore, here i try to make my 2 cent point. hope it is helpful.

i think that maybe 1 rule could be added to your system:

No overnight praying for coming back!

for example. my demo has $2k, 48 hours ago. has 2050$ 24 hours ago. but last night, it is obvious to me gbpchf was consolidating. and my gbpchf was at 4th level, with 20 pips down.

at that time, i was thinking:
<<
today it has 2 possibilities: one, it goes up again, the EA will suffer further drawdown, or even stoploss. that'll be 200$ loss; the other one, it goes down and TP at 60 pips, make a profit 18$ (? not sure about this...).
>>

at that point, the up or down may be seen as a coin flop, 50 vs 50. well, i know someone will argue that it is not. but IMHO, daily-wise. i believe it is 50vs50 last night to guess today's gbpchf.

but i didn't do anything anyway on that demo. this noon, due to gbp's bull, my demo has 170$ drawdown, only 1970$ left.

reading through ur thread, you also often mentioned " .... for this trade, if we exited earlier, we'd avoid that loss...." ; i know there is hardly a good way to exited earlier, but exited before overnight is easy, and it could be FIRM, since the next day will be another story. not like the next 1h, 4h, or 30m.....

if you agree above, then i'm thinking. why not move 4th level's SL to yesterday's high instead of keeping 500 pips?

i know, many other times, gbpchf may come back to TP at 60, but allowing 500 pips SL overnight at 0.27 position size is not mathematically correct.

i'm at work, cannot talking too much here. i in fact didn't explain full details here so maybe it is not understandable.

however, let's look at your system fundamentally different in another way:

1. martingale is NOT ok for real-world application.
yes, this statement is wrong. i should've said " martingale is NOT ok for real-world continous application. in our case, we cannot expect a martingale system has OPEN positions in market 5x24. and it MUST be hard coded in the EA that "overnight level-up" is prohibited.

2. fx market has its own character.
let's say, 1st day, the market moves 500 pips, now we ask ourselves, do we need the market to move another 500 pips on 2nd day to tell us "Ranging is over!"
to me, one day move of 500~1k pips fundamentally prevent me from trading a ranging/retrace system (that this system is).

3. at the beginning, at 0.01 position, your winning probability is actually larger than "overnight 4th level 0.27 position". so why we raise position size when winning probability is dropping? I am lazy to explain why winning chance is lower for overnight 4th level position....if you understand it already.

i have great confidence in your system, and start to use it now, with some of my modifications (i have not changed the code. when i do, i'll share.)

i believe that this system needs to steer a little from the original design. martingale applications try to reduce its exposure to the market. if this system continously trade all pairs all day, doom is highly likely.

Thanks again, for bob's great system.

Ok here is a graph of the EA running through the news. It still made 1300 for the week but got clobbered on Friday. So my assessment to stay away from big news stories is sound. Adding the 4th level is also something you may want to look at. In most cases it works but when you add the 5th to a 4 level system you can run into big trouble. So I am going to go with the 3 level system and then decide whether to add a 4th. Going a 4 level system and adding a fifth and it doesnt work is a disaster trade. Here are the results of my 4 level system which adds a fifth if you are in trouble.

My conclusions then are the 3 Level is a much safer trading system and adding a 4th adds some risk but is not as damaging if it doesnt work. Using the 4 level is more profitable but a 5th level can lead to disater if it doesnt work.

Good comments and I appreciate them. I really dont want to call this a martingale system because we limit it so much, I dont think it no longer is. To me it is a multi entry system but the issue now is how many levels deep do we go. I am strongly leaning to the 3L with a 4L in the right conditions. For example if you have to use it on a day the 1st level entered, your chances are very good it will work. If you are using it on the 2nd or 3rd day of a trade you are bucking a strong trend that may not retrace. In other words you are right when you say your risk to reward ratio is not as good, adding a level. I may add that to my rules. What I saw on the second day is the GBP/CHF had retraced back to its median on the 5M chart but had not take profit. This is a clear warning that the trade is in trouble.

Here is a pic of the trade Thursday and Friday. On Friday during the JPY session it came back to the median and we didnt get our retracement. Instead of adding a level, it probably would be better not to enter but tighten our SL and see if we get a retracement for TP or lessen our loss. This probably should become standard operating procedure. Testing live will help.

Here is my reasoning for bailing on the gbp/chf. I drew a resistance line and my thinking was if this breaks north at news time. I am out. So I set my SL at that point. Unfortunately for me it hit the SL and then went south for a TP. But that is how I make my decisions to minimize my losses. This time I was wrong but my account lives to trade another day. I had a good week up until this point but again this is how my new system protects your account from the big loss.

I'm thinking it might be a better idea(will try this next week) to forget about a retrace for a TP after a pair goes four levels and just look for the first retrace that gets you at or near break even. The GBP/CHF came back close to breakeven fairly quickly this week after it hit level 4. I found an indicator today that I think will calculate how many pips retrace you need to get to break even on all open positions on a given pair. Don't know how to attach it here but its called (i-Breakeven). Would love to find an EA or script that would close all trades of the same pair at a specific price. Set an alert to go off at level 4 and slap an EA on to close that pair at or near breakeven.

My comment is also for Toothman. I agree with both of you.

first of all, i'm ok with if martingale or not. i actually like martingale, i used it to earn some extra $$$ at vegas. very useful...

ok, back to this system, the core of this system is to trade range/retrace. therefore, Bob's opinion is very very valuable -- stay away from news time.
also, Toothman's opinion that "after 4th level in a day, forget it, exit, restart the process."

if I QUIT gbpchf positions that's built up from Thursday morning's 0.01 to Thursday night's 0.27, i only end-up losing 20$, which is only a portion of one regular day's profit. but i didn't quit, now I'm down almost 50$, with same shit audchf, i'm down 100$. that's ok, not much though, but the problem is that we cannot see next week it will come back for 60 TP.

To use this system, the user/trader should try to seek chance to RESTART instead of "next level-up". I know that's not mechanic but discretionary, but that's not important here. A trader must NOT to prefer level up, when he has chance to exit with a small loss.

i hate to type equations here, although they are simple ones. let me reason it this way:

generally,
the system earns money very easy, for most pairs.
if not due to that few days in 2008, this system would be holy grail, isn't it?

so a trader tries to run the system when the market is boring, like Asian session. or trade cross pairs (eurgbp, audnzd) more than majors (eurusd, gbpjpy). THAT IS, you try to avoid volatility!

Therefore, this system is not a "set and forget" fully automatic system. you need to often turn it off, during news time, also, no overnight holding.

another issue is i feel there are too many pairs.

here is an example, say, we have gbpchf and audchf now.

during normal times, market not crazy:

if gbpchf earns money easily, audchf may not earn (i mean, audchf may be very quiet then.);

during crazy times, market volatile:

if gbpchf drawdowns crazily, audchf will mostly do that toooo! (like this week).

my point is, the correlation between cousin pairs will be highly uniformed during crazy times. Therefore, the risk is expanding a lot compared to regular times.

So why do we have so many pairs? when it is easier to lose during crazy market time, but not easier to earn during normal times (trade 0.02 same pair from 1st level will be better)?

have a good weekend.

Bob, bring it on......

Thursday night's GBPCHF presents a very good situation for us to consider. Maybe a rule could be formed for this kind of situation that's frequently met by this system.

In this case, this overnight positions, we don't have to cut them right away. I will found the gbpchf's Thursday's high as SL for all gbpchf positions, as i said in another post, if that SL triggered, only 20$ loss. If we still use 500pip stoploss, that will really waste the clear messege send by the market's 400 pips daily move.

reasons to do that, because thursday demonstrated a robust/stable growth of 400 pips from 10:00 am (vertical red line). that's clearly a price action telling us　＂that's a move/trend ". so we look for exit-restart instead of level-up.

first of all thanks a million to Nanningbob for all your wonderful efforts.

now i have to clear a few things up. i have read the articles you suggest and i'm confused. according to one article forex was designed not for speculation but to facilitate global business dealings. how then, based on this randomness, are we supposed to make money as retail traders? why does a website like FF even exist? why does forex.com advertise on television knowing that they will take peoples' money lol?. why do motherfuckers over at pain capital continue to steal from people who they should love and support lol?

and second, i've been reading for four years that 'the trend is your friend', 'never trade against the trend'. how the hell is this attitude so pervasive when, according to the article at sfomag.com, the 'dealers' (who are 'speculating'?) make all the money fading this bitch. wtf. please advise

p.s. can you tell i've spent the last four years looking for the holy grail lol

the trend is your friend, doesnt mean it goes up or down without pullbacks

thank you for the response. if i understand correctly this implies the traditional view of how to capitalize on the trend is misguided, or perhaps misunderstood.

may i ask what your 'Distance in Pips from one order to another' is and also your TP. Default is 90/60 but in this picture these values appear to be quite less. also it seems as though your TP is when price re-crossed the 80 MA.

thanks!

may i suggest to use the 89 MA instead of the 80 as 89 is a fibonacci number. just an idea...

btw i am quickly becoming a believer of this seemingly powerful system. thanks again

also, and i'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but does it make sense to have a breakeven function for these EAs? maybe even as close as 20 pips?

That is great analysis, you understand the problems and benfits of this EA. The difference between this one and the others is they kept reentering and the DD would get bigger. However, now we get to decide and that makes us traders. The EA handles the simple stuff and we take on the more difficult decisions. Your analysis of using the same currency in several different crosses can cause you to face the same trend pattern. I will be looking at all of these scenarios this weekend and then make some decisions. One of the decisions I want to make is to how to get he USD/JPY more in play. To get it to trade more but still control its occasional spike. Thanks for your great input.

Compare your pic of the gbp/chf with the gbp/jpy. The difference between the two is the gbp/jpy retraced and the gbp/chf did not. What got me was I rely on the JPY session for the retracement. That is what usually happens and saves me almost every time on these trades like this. However, the gbp/chf did not so know I am faced with trading it in the euro session. It spiked up I did a reenter and now I am committed. The decision faced would be, If I dont get the JPY retrace, I know I am in potential serious trouble. I bailed just as the retrace was going to happen. How do you know? You dont, so decisions are made. If I was to do this trade over by the beginning of the Euro session I take my loss and then I am not dealing with the Euro spike on top of the run.

Any here is the gpb/jpy and this is what I look for, the jpy session retrace.

Welcome to the club. After I had traded for two years of frustration. winning losing winning losing and really not making any money. I got to your point. This is what I did. I threw out everything I learned about Forex and wrote down everything I thought was 100 % true. The first thing to winning is "to know your enemy" Here are some things that I found to be true.

1. Forex was not set up for traders but for business, bank and government transactions. This is really an eye opener because this destroys the foundational arguments of all the other systems whether based on indicators, news, fundamentals or a combination. I am not saying you cant win doing those things but unknown transactions change the direction of the market at any time, place, or manner. The market at any moment can change direction and no fundamental or indicator can predict these actions. So the market can trend but the trend can be interrupted at any time.

2. Therefore traders do not rule the market despite what the big dogs think. They can be wrong too. Business rules the market and when a business transaction happens they want their money and they dont care about MA crosses, trendlines, elliot waves, fib lines, COT reports, news stories, etc. etc.

3. Price action is never stagnant. Traders divide the market into trending or non trending market. I dont, the market is always moving up and down it is just a matter of degree. Every 1M, 5M, 15M, 1H, 4H, etc has a high and a low. While traveling to its high or low in any time period, it is never in a straight line. It bounces on its way up and it bounces on its way down. In other words the market is always retracing to some degree.

4. There is a maximum a currency will move in any one day. Trade within that maximum and you can be a successful trader. The closer a currency gets to its maximum the better chance I have of getting a retrace. Anthing else is just easy pickings.

5. The only thing that messes up my system are
A. the super news stories that go outside the range of the EA
B. a super strong trend for several days where the retraces are at a minumum, this common with commodity currencies.
C. spreads that prevent the TP from happening on retraces.

In short this is where 3+ years of trading have led me. Welcome aboard, I think you will find many other traders that have had the same frustrations. These are my theories, I publish them not to show how smart I am, I want to see if other experienced traders can defeat my theories so I dont waste my money on them. In other words, DOES THIS WORK?? I am trading pennies until my theories prove the test of time and then I wish to open the vault and set up a nice retirement for myself and my family. If they dont work then I will disappointingly move on to something else. But I am done with if sto crosses the MA at the 3rd Fib level and the 4th Eliot wave comes at the same time the COT traders are moving their positions because some country lowered its interest rate responding to such and such a report. Only to have GM cash a billion dollar check from France for selling them diesel trucks screw up all my analysis.

How about this, the eur is 1.60 to the dollar, the USA lowers its interest rate and there is nothing but bad news, billion dollar bailout, depression stats, etc. etc. According to fundamentals the Euro should continue to gain on the dollar, however, a billion dollar trader bails out on his euro positions and sells all his holdings and crash goes the EURO. I have challenged fundamental trader after fundamental trader on who predicted this drop back below 130. There is not one, not one, but that thing retraced many times on its way down.

So welcome to range trading guy. I hope you find it profitable even though its not perfect.

The difference between a median line at 80 or 89 is not dignificant. I am not a fib man. My study of fibs lines was they only worked when a fib line also matched a support or resistance line. I am not a believer in FIB lines. I find resistance and support lines much more reliable.