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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #158,121
  • Feb 5, 2009 3:57am Feb 5, 2009 3:57am
Quoting fxinthesun
So you are saying that, even if the UK economy is bad, and the finance minister say tonight, its going to get 10x worse. You don't care?
I would expect volitility and trade what the charts give me. What is the alternative..ignore your charts and your system and enter? Who says there wont be a huge drawdown even if your right about the news effect.
  • #158,122
  • Feb 5, 2009 4:02am Feb 5, 2009 4:02am
Quoting fxinthesun
So you are saying that, even if the UK economy is bad, and the finance minister say tonight, its going to get 10x worse. You don't care?
why should I. . . it's all about market sentiments. if that were the case all of these pairs would be in the crapper right now based on the state of the global economy. however the market is betting on a come right now so we choose to trade it or not- market direction is based upon what will happen in the future and that's what's being priced in my friend. . .

this forex business is a funny thing and very strategic to say the least. go where the money goes and leave the politics to the big boys - we are tagging along for the ride so I try not to think that deep into it. . .
  • #158,123
  • Feb 5, 2009 4:04am Feb 5, 2009 4:04am
Quoting quecee5
wouldn't be short gj just yet. . .may visit the top again 130.80 area (maybe). a break there will see it skyrocket up. . . we still have the rate announcement spike that will happen. . .

sitting on my hands on gj watching other good set-ups that are much much
cheaper
cannot predict the market reaction, but from TA point:

 

  1. the fact that that lower TL holds all way to the top
  2. the fact that we broke the 129.40 resistance [fibo 618]
  3. the fact we are foming now Ascending triangle with possible break to UP side
  4. just favour the PA to upper levels, 131.95 and 135, 50 where the daily 50 ema + upper TL
  5. reversal, and we are right on our SHRT button all way DOWN to 126.6 with break to new low @ 116

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  • #158,124
  • Feb 5, 2009 4:09am Feb 5, 2009 4:09am
Quoting fxinthesun
So you are saying that, even if the UK economy is bad, and the finance minister say tonight, its going to get 10x worse. You don't care?
Correct. No one should care what the prevailing opinion is. It's all curve fitted anyway. Analysts on Bloomies saying nonsense about increased risk appetite, shedding of carry exposures etc. etc. All b0llocks. Nearly always after the event.

All banks think UK will go to zero rate so it's pretty much priced in already. Exactly what do you think will happen if BoE cut 0.5%? Or keep the same?

You only have to look at the US to see that this link between a strong currency and it's economy is a misnomer. When US interest rates were 4.5%, Dollar was touching all time lows. The Fed aggressively cut rates in light of terrible economic data and the Dollar rose. Go figure.

There's a curve fit reason I'm sure, but tell that to all those Dollar bears.
  • #158,125
  • Feb 5, 2009 4:28am Feb 5, 2009 4:28am
Quoting fxinthesun
Yes correct...
sure
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  • #158,126
  • Feb 5, 2009 4:42am Feb 5, 2009 4:42am
  •  Ronin77
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: เงินกินเปล่า | 95 Posts
Technical analysis for gbpjpy, a break and close above 130.55, and next possible target could be 132.50, to the downside a break and close below the rising trendline around 128.50 which has been touched 3 times should target 126.75.
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Ronin77
  • #158,127
  • Feb 5, 2009 4:56am Feb 5, 2009 4:56am
Quoting forexlion
sure
lol. buying volume? how do you determine this?
you cannot without discretionary judging the reactions to what you claim to be buying vol (?)
  • #158,128
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:05am Feb 5, 2009 5:05am
morning all we are having some great moves so far before rate news every setup is perfect and the pips are easy so far.

R points should hold before the news so some saftey there will be looking for spike on news and then taking reverse of the effect for retrace to were price was before news happened.


I see so many people with different points of view today which is good leads to debate

Myself i will not be guessing what happens will stick to scalping today thats for sure but if we get any big spikes down may add a nice long...

good luck all have fun and make loads of money.
Private Account Manager & Trader since 1999
  • #158,129
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:23am Feb 5, 2009 5:23am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
lol. buying volume? how do you determine this?
you cannot without discretionary judging the reactions to what you claim to be buying vol (?)
it is possible

This is what we did today.
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  • #158,130
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:32am Feb 5, 2009 5:32am
Selling steps in

1 hour chart
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  • #158,131
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:33am Feb 5, 2009 5:33am
Quoting yentastic
morning all...
morning..trying to get my motor running again for some pips, but so far a good day.
  • #158,132
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:39am Feb 5, 2009 5:39am
Quoting forexlion
Selling steps in

1 hour chart
lol...yeah.

nice, when price moves up buying vol stepepd in, when it turns down, selling stepped in.

that's how it is meant to be, just a fancy text on the chart
  • #158,133
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:04am Feb 5, 2009 6:04am
Looks all priced-in. BoE cuts rate, Sterling strengthens.

Hands up who was betting their shirt on a big fall.?
  • #158,134
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:07am Feb 5, 2009 6:07am
Closed all longs. Now waiting to see if 131 will break...
  • #158,135
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:07am Feb 5, 2009 6:07am
Quoting Petefaders
morning..trying to get my motor running again for some pips, but so far a good day.

that forexlion has a screw lose ...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #158,136
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:09am Feb 5, 2009 6:09am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Looks all priced-in. BoE cuts rate, Sterling strengthens.

Hands up who was betting their shirt on a big fall.?
He, he, You seem to be right. However, I'm still short, but this doesn't look good ;-)
  • #158,137
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:17am Feb 5, 2009 6:17am
Quoting janad
He, he, You seem to be right. However, I'm still short, but this doesn't look good ;-)
I'm only teasing. Hope your trade works out.

4hr hitting 200ema and key resistance at 132.10, so we could get a bounce from here.
  • #158,138
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:18am Feb 5, 2009 6:18am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
lol...yeah.

nice, when price moves up buying vol stepepd in, when it turns down, selling stepped in.

that's how it is meant to be, just a fancy text on the chart
On Balance Volume Technical Indicator (OBV) is a momentum technical indicator that relates volume to price change. The indicator, which Joseph Granville came up with, is pretty simple. When the security closes higher than the previous close, all of the day’s volume is considered up-volume. When the security closes lower than the previous close, all of the day’s volume is considered down-volume.
The basic assumption, regarding On Balance Volume analysis, is that OBV changes precede price changes. The theory is that smart money can be seen flowing into the security by a rising OBV. When the public then moves into the security, both the security and the On Balance Volume will surge ahead.

If the security’s price movement precedes OBV movement, a "non-confirmation" has occurred. Non-confirmations can occur at bull market tops (when the security rises without, or before, the OBV) or at bear market bottoms (when the security falls without, or before, the On Balance Volume Technical Indicator).
  • #158,139
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:19am Feb 5, 2009 6:19am
Quoting malcolmb14
that forexlion has a screw lose ...
hi malcom, wher do u think is the area to short this beast? pls suggest. thanks.
  • #158,140
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:22am Feb 5, 2009 6:22am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Looks all priced-in. BoE cuts rate, Sterling strengthens.

Hands up who was betting their shirt on a big fall.?
I was betting for 132 as a first target
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