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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,961
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:30am Mar 21, 2007 9:30am
Quoting Islander
I believe Japan had a holiday
Vernal Equinox. Everybody to watch the sun rising right at the East and setting right at the West...

Worst of all: I'm not kidding.
  • #1,962
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:31am Mar 21, 2007 9:31am
Hey any of u guys think we might get another wave down this looks to be retracing to the 61 % line on the daily chart... nice 4 count elliot wave structure too... any thoughts?
  • #1,963
  • Mar 21, 2007 10:30am Mar 21, 2007 10:30am
I've been waiting for another wave down as well since last week. Where do you see the 61% line at?

Thanks,

Frank

Quoting enoc2g
Hey any of u guys think we might get another wave down this looks to be retracing to the 61 % line on the daily chart... nice 4 count elliot wave structure too... any thoughts?
  • #1,964
  • Mar 21, 2007 10:46am Mar 21, 2007 10:46am
Quoting enoc2g
Hey any of u guys think we might get another wave down this looks to be retracing to the 61 % line on the daily chart... nice 4 count elliot wave structure too... any thoughts?

I can see no indications on a short at the moment ......wait and see is what I will be doing, until I get some good signals for a down trend.
  • #1,965
  • Mar 21, 2007 11:35am Mar 21, 2007 11:35am
Longer term negative reverse divergence will close today so will add to short and move overall sl to 232.68 with initial target at 221.00 and looking for even longer term move to 215.00.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,966
  • Mar 21, 2007 12:40pm Mar 21, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting Leugimp
Longer term negative reverse divergence will close today so will add to short and move overall sl to 232.68 with initial target at 221.00 and looking for even longer term move to 215.00.
man u r a really long term trade,hehe
may take years to hit 221 again, to be honest for me is easyr hit 240 then any target below.
  • #1,967
  • Mar 21, 2007 12:49pm Mar 21, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting Leugimp
Longer term negative reverse divergence will close today so will add to short and move overall sl to 232.68 with initial target at 221.00 and looking for even longer term move to 215.00.
what indicator are you using to make this analysis? I mean if it wasn't for the China market crash I dont think we would've ever seen the low 20's....but thats just me...I think the down trend has stablized and as Hazz puts it carry traders are coming back and that definetly will halt any further major down trends...
  • #1,968
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:03pm Mar 21, 2007 1:03pm
News is coming up 2:15 ET

2:15pm USDInterest Rate Statement http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif
5.25%5.25%
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,969
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:05pm Mar 21, 2007 1:05pm
i think that if u r trading long term more then technicals u must go a little on fundamentals

according with everyone carry trades unwind is over (so hard to see another big downside)
the problem started with china is over also, u can see that stock are going well again ( very good for carry trade)
sense of strong global grow is comming back (+carry trade again)
japan rates have a hard time to go up since inflation still low (bad for yen).

so all the thing that make the yns get str in the last big move down are over. of course we can see month and day technicals and see a big downside forming. but i think that it will never come cuz more then technicals the deal is fundamental now

just my bets, im a technical trader

anyway im a medium technical trader and even if the downside come i will be rdy to start selling . i still long since 227.30 ,
  • #1,970
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:08pm Mar 21, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting Sami7
News is coming up 2:15 ET

2:15pm USDInterest Rate Statement http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif
5.25%5.25%
With no-hike and hawkish talk from FED will push all majors/Yen up quickly.
  • #1,971
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:11pm Mar 21, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting hazz
i think that if u r trading long term more then technicals u must go a little on fundamentals

according with everyone carry trades unwind is over (so hard to see another big downside)
the problem started with china is over also, u can see that stock are going well again ( very good for carry trade)
sense of strong global grow is comming back (+carry trade again)
japan rates have a hard time to go up since inflation still low (bad for yen).

so all the thing that make the yns get str in the last big move down are over. of course we can see month and day technicals and see a big downside forming. but i think that it will never come cuz more then technicals the deal is fundamental now

just my bets, im a technical trader

anyway im a medium technical trader and even if the downside come i will be rdy to start selling . i still long since 227.30 ,
Wow, like reading a snapshot of the news without all the bother, cool.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,972
  • Edited 1:32pm Mar 21, 2007 1:21pm | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting dswk
With no-hike and hawkish talk from FED will push all majors/Yen up quickly.
That's what I was thinking - I'm in a buy since earlier this morning.

-----------------
Up, down, up, down, up....motion sickness. LOL
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,973
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:37pm Mar 21, 2007 1:37pm
Wow, did i miss some news or something, that was another 100 point spike. Any thoughts on the intervention there @ 2:30 est?
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #1,974
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:46pm Mar 21, 2007 1:46pm
sami7 ... so the bull is still in charge till when?
  • #1,975
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:14pm Mar 21, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting khmr
what indicator are you using to make this analysis? I mean if it wasn't for the China market crash I dont think we would've ever seen the low 20's....but thats just me...I think the down trend has stablized and as Hazz puts it carry traders are coming back and that definetly will halt any further major down trends...
I'm not looking at any fundamentals - only technicals - usually when we see a correction in a trend we have some kind of divergence in RSI to let us know that the trend is still continuing. That has not been the case at the high of 1/23/07. I have 6 key sets of moving averages that I look at in terms of determining context for a trend and was given a confirmed signal that the trend is now down. Wait for pullback to area around 50% so the 45 EMA looked like as good a place as any, but need to be relatively close enough to an area that should serve as resistance in case I am wrong. 12/16/07 close should serve as that resistance level, if we are in a downtrend, previous support should become resistance. Also, at the current level we have a reverse divergence in rsi which goes in the direction of trend. As of 2 weeks we ago have a hammer formation on the weeklys that would show an intermediate bottom, but a lack in divergence in that 3 period span troubles me as a sign that this uptrend may be fading. Perhaps I am a bit early in my assessment, however, as trend factors begin to lean more and more to the downside on the dailys, I can only go with what I see and nothing more, nothing less. That is why there are stop losses and position sizing. If trend factors that I look at change, so will my positional direction, until then all I can do is trade what I see.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,976
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:15pm Mar 21, 2007 2:15pm
in fact, stop loss should be the high of 2/16/07 which is 233.46
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,977
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:21pm Mar 21, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting Leugimp
in fact, stop loss should be the high of 2/16/07 which is 233.46
well nothing more Id like to see then what you are predicting....
  • #1,978
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:36pm Mar 21, 2007 2:36pm
Quoting khmr
well nothing more Id like to see then what you are predicting....

i'm not prediciting anything- my trades are on and now Im gonna go play some afternoon winter golf.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,979
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:39pm Mar 21, 2007 2:39pm
Carrytrade back again after the FOMC meeting.This is good for those who have been holding the long positions.Already 120+ and still long on the Ninja
Beast [lol] or what do you call it:gbp/jpy.Happy pipping.
The Profit Of The Earth Is For All
  • #1,980
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:13pm Mar 21, 2007 3:13pm
Hi all! i've got no open positions at present-was out before FOMC after a 40pip loss on G/J!! Guess this rally will retrace at some point,although still seems so hyper at present. Anyone can suggest a n indication at the best price i can enter a long?...ya help is much appreciated
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