PowerTrading/The River

I've always dicipline myself no matter how tempting the trades before 0800GMT and 1800GMT, I'll not get into it. Well, that's because I'm still not that experienced yet

Well, looking at GBPUSD yesterday, the market went LONG after 1800GMT. I was tempted to LONG at 2200 opening candle but I didn't eventually. Anyone could share how yesterday trade after 1800 is a good reversal trade? How to confirm the Long trade?

Oh, and you guys looking at the current trade now? If i drew my zone correctly, the breakout soon of the bearish candle could be a good entry? I'm looking into Short at the opening of 1300 candle.

Not sure if it even exist, I'm looking for a way to maximize my profits. I have to say one weakness of my trades is I have difficulties catching the maximum profit for my trades. Here is an example :

14 Jan 2009 GBPUSD

Took a LONG Position on 0815 opening, when the Zone Breach is confirmed by 0800candle. Price went back 59pips before going positive 80+pips. However, in this trade, I got only 30+pips, when price got my SL. Again, i am having this opinion that when SMA84 goes into the river, I should be tighter with my SL. Hmm.....

Price went ranging towards the end of that day.

I was taken out yesterday with 30+ pips. Again, lesson learned... not to put SL too tight. I entered at 1300 opening. If i maintain my SL at above 61.8 FIBO, i might have managed to capture 100pips yesterday.

As you can see, I"m really a noobie learning from mistakes. Question on the river, if 1130 candle a good entry? Cos, 1115 bearish candle crossed the LWMA50,passed the river but close exactly on the river(not in the riverbank). So, perhaps 1130 is an early entry for a SHORT?

And... How can i spot the reversal on yesterday trade? Should i draw LRC on higher time frame? How to tell whether i should be looking for a reentry or reversal.

Looking at the chart, can i assume that drawing Trendline on CCI can show the trend reversing?

Look at today trade on GBPUSD. Even before 0800GMT (which what i discipline myself to get into trade to avoid fake breakout)

But, what i notice recently the Guppy has been moving a lot. In this chart here, the time was 0500GMT and there was a 100+ pips movement.

How can i make exemptions using this method for early trades? or is there other scalping method which could be used together with the river trade?

Would appreciate if you pros out there leave a one liner "Don't be greedy!" Hehe, cos i'm really really a agressive noobie i think (:


Can anyone share, please?

Alright here are my thoughts of the current trade today. GBPUSD.

Price broke the zone (which is rather BIG as the price is moving violently in the morning)

SHORT at the break of the zone , would have around 90pips now.

But I'm not that ready to take such trades as it is not yet 0800GMT. So I SHORT at break of 100.0 Fibo.

Price is out of the riverbanks, so it is river wild ( I'm sorry PowerTrader if i used the term river wild wrongly, please correct me )

Looking at the chart long enough you seem to bond into any system well.

Take a look at the 15M chart. The thin black line of the river aka MID RIVER (SMA 42) seem to trying to tell us something but silently hiding away.

Price WILL touch the MID RIVER each day. Even the wick of the candle touching is considered touching.
(If you guys prefer the 1H chart, it will be SMA 21)

So how I use this as a small filter to my trades?

Let's say the price for the day is above the river and has not touch the MID RIVER. Since the probability of price touching MID RIVER is HIGH, a reversal of trend coming down is anticipated.

Like wise if price has touched the MID RIVER early of the day, then the trend up or down is wise to be followed.

Just something to think about !!

Price The River!

Looking at the chart long enough you seem to bond into any system well.

Take a look at the 15M chart. The thin black line of the river aka MID RIVER (SMA 42) seem to trying to tell us something but silently hiding away.

Price WILL touch the MID RIVER each day. Even the wick of the candle touching is considered touching.
(If you guys prefer the 1H chart, it will be SMA 21)

So how I use this as a small filter to my trades?

Let's say the price for the day is above the river and has not touch the MID RIVER. Since the probability of price touching MID RIVER is HIGH, a reversal of trend coming down is anticipated.

Like wise if price has touched the MID RIVER early of the day, then the trend up or down is wise to be followed.

Just something to think about !!

Price The River!

Regarding the previous post, the Mid River, there is a 0.01% probability of price not coming back to meet the Mid River.

But that's also good cos you know the momentum is there.

The Mid River also serve as an indicator to tell us how far to put our SL.

Very interesting system. Glad you revived it.

It's quite sad to see a great system for us to use but hidden away in the corner of this forum collecting dust.

Maybe at one particular point, the price had been ranging, taking out some pips from traders, and they carried on their search for the Holy Grail.

I've started a blog www.theriverfx.blogspot.com where I backtest The River system starting from 2007. I received advice to write out all the reasons for entering and exiting trades. This way, I'll be more emotionless in trading!

A newbie forex trader in progress! Much more to learn from you pros out there!

Here's another hypothesis of mine. This is for playing safe.

The first chart(15M)shows a rather ranging day. Of course there are some Short opportunities during that day.

The 2nd chart(1H) shows the price above the river, suggesting a Long.

Since price is swimming that way, if you're forcing it to swim the other side, it won't happen(you can't change the market!)

So, maybe for that day, reversal on those trades would be much easier?

Interesting isn't it how different timeframes with this system tells a lot on the currency.

Hi, let's look at today's trade.
I usually don't take trades before 0800GMT so the nice move down early in the morning I didn't take it.

But, I'm starting to think it is possible to entry trades early morning if CCI TL, zone and MA 5crosses 20. Look at these past few weeks/days. Price moves a lot in the morning, unlike past results where early morning price is just plain flat.

Anyway, we still have 100 pips by now!

Alright, drawing a zone there, the breakout can let us enter Short. However, I entered early, with a classic river signal ( bearish candle forming below the river)

SL at the other side of the river and we up 100 pips by now! (closed partial lot). Let's see if the flowing trade can catch more pips today (:

Again, an easy profitable system if you backtest it properly. You just have to be more cautious when it comes to ranging days.

Wow, what a day, earlier I closed some lots with 100pips profit.

Look at the price now. Some bullish movement start to appears. I close another lot at 1515 when break CCI TL and that's 300 pips already! What a day.

I'm looking to close all trades if the MA 5crosses MA20 later.

We all know the odds of exiting at the maximum pips profits is almost impossible. Here's a discussion I'll like to make regarding zone breakout technique at take profit area:

Zone breakout at 0945. You can enter immediately since a valid CCI TL is broken and MA crosses earlier. Otherwise, you wait for a candle opening outside the zone.

You can use zone box for exit points too. Draw as much zone when you spot them. If the zone breakout is against your trade. You might want to exit there.

Here we see a zone around 161.8 Fibo. You can exit some lot at the Fibo area. The price break at the bottom, which makes us happy (:

And then a small zone is spotted but the breakout is at the upper zone. You might want to exit there.

The last exit is when TL is broken + MA crosses back.

You might want to go for reversal at 1745 (at the break of 100.0 Fibo). Play safe, remember?
Move your SL to each Fibo level after the price has touched if you want to minimise your risk.

50 pips on reversal is a job well done for me (:

Note : The zone breakout technique used on exit area was mentioned by PowerTrader but we didnt see any chart examples. I have a feeling that his method is similar like what I've discussed here, if not much better than this. He's still the best master out there (:

Just a thing to keep in mind, CCI TL ≠ Price TL. Meaning the line of the CCI TL is not an exact representation of price movement.

The chart below will explain better.6Feb2007

With confirmation of zone breakout, classic river signal and CCI TL break, we enter Long here. Opps, looks like the zone is forming out here! Did I make the right choice? Should i exit now? We wait for the price to talk to us.

Price opens above the zone, and we continue Long.

Note: See the CCI TL break, which we take it to confirm our Long. But, it breaks back inside, instead of price going down, it went up! That's what I mean by CCI TL ≠ Price TL. You'll get what I mean after drawing tons of TL (:

We can see several zone at exit area which kept breaking at the upper zone. Good for us (:

You can take profit at the CCI TL break. That's around 80 pips profit.

Here's a backtest result I'll like to share :

9Feb2007

Price oh price, which way do you want to go? Above 76.4 or below 76.4?

Assuming my Fibo is drawn correctly, the price seems to has no direction according to the Fibo. But, the zone breakout can tell us something! (^^)

I'll wait for a candle open below the zone for confirmation, but looks like the candle open below the 100.0 Fibo. CCI TL breaks too. Perfect!

3 possible exits :
1. 127.0 where the price seems to be stuck at.
2. As soon as the upper zone breakout at the take profit area.
3. MA crosses.

1H & 4H is in lower river wild, that's why it's better to go Short.

Another backtest result for fellow Forex Factorians to ponder.
(I'm not a pro so you'll do the judging)

12 Feb 2007

An upper zone breakout, and I entered Long after the break of 38.2 Fibo. Yes, it went well at first, but soon the price breaks the lower zone + MA crosses. That's where to cut the losses early.

WAIT

Remember how the price must touch the MID RIVER each day? Well, if a Long trade is taken here, we are actually entering an extremely low probability trade here.

*This is purely my own observation, I hope experts would judge and give some good comments here*

When price has touched the Mid River, we then ready ourselves for any bounce back up or down trending. A classic river signal appear and I went Short.

Exit when at the zone breakout and the MA crosses. CCI TL is too steep to judge.

Hi PT:
I am very interested in thistrading system,but I cannot download Template and FX indicator from this addr:
Template
http://www.divshare.com/download/2724572-c7e

FX Sniper
http://www.divshare.com/download/2919082-c36

They tell me the uploader's account has reached its download limit...

So ,maybe PT or someone else could send me an email, I want to learn this system carefully.

MY Email:[email protected]

Thanks.

Here you go key2008,

The FX Sniper setting I'm using is 2,10,1,2. I'm not sure with others, but it is the setting I'm comfortable with.

RiverTemplate is the original template from PT.

rivertrade is my template.

Feel free to comment key2008. I'm in a learning process here. Glad to have someone to discuss with (:

HOHO, Thanks a lot.