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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #501
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:57am Oct 3, 2008 4:57am
Quoting Rabid
There are some things you can't inherently change... like if an asteroid smacked into Earth, not much we can do about that. But in cases like that the response is everything. A good response can greatly mitigate the downside.

So what you're saying is were mostly maladaptive herd animals. Sounds a lot like some stuff I've been reading lately.
  • #502
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:46am Oct 3, 2008 7:46am
Eh, I think we're well-adapted community-driven animals. The problem... our world has changed since we evolved into it, so we're forced to change our nature.
  • #503
  • Oct 3, 2008 9:49am Oct 3, 2008 9:49am
Quoting codobro
I would like to posit a scenario:
You dress up for a job interview, do your best, there are hundreds of others trying to get the job, but you're selected. There was some degree of "luck".

Now let's say you know beforehand exactly what skills they need, schedule, salary, position, and time for application (that they wouldn't need anyone before then). Now let's say you know who the interviewer is, what they do, various things about them. Now let's say you know their employer, who that person(s) is(are), various things about them. Now let's say you know the time they'll enter work, what time they'll leave, what time is best for them, of which time is available for the interview. What very second they would be most likely to have a decision for a candidate. You will need to be very informed.

Of course, the position will appear abruptly, unadvertised at first (since it only just occurred/they have no desire to advertise), but the populace will catch on. You have been waiting outside counting the seconds until the availability officially begins.

I'm probably not specific enough for this. There is the addition in trading that there is no "one", and in fact as long as you're in at the price you want when you want, more people piling in will help.

Knowing each factor and adapting to each presents you with what? I think the job interview is slightly flawed because of the idea of "one" position; What if there are a series of positions, like the market, and whomever is there at the "right place, right time" seeks to benefit the most?

I hope this will do. A public thank you tdion for your work on the forum. Enjoy your time, I hope you make a lot of pips.
Hey codobro!!
That’s the greatest example I’ve seen.
It explains what really happened in the market when you’re trading.
In few words: It’s only matter of opportunities and knowing how to make the most of them
  • #504
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:15am Jan 28, 2009 2:15am
Why was this thread not turned into a sticky? Honestly.
  • #505
  • Edited 2:42am Jan 28, 2009 2:24am | Edited 2:42am
Dam I burned a lot of good brain cells on this one...

Tom of all the threads that pop up yours by far hit home the most...

Sticky....sticky
It's me...
  • #506
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:46am Jan 28, 2009 2:46am
This really is an interesting thread.

Great contributions from lots of people!
  • #507
  • Jan 28, 2009 3:55am Jan 28, 2009 3:55am
Most of the time, i have no idea what i am doing.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip DetailedStatement.zip   9 KB | 287 downloads
  • #508
  • Jan 28, 2009 4:30am Jan 28, 2009 4:30am
See sig.
Chance favors the prepared mind...
  • #509
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:32am Jan 28, 2009 7:32am
Quoting tdion
Why was this thread not turned into a sticky? Honestly.
The question is why would it?

It's a decent debate I suppose, but truthfully.....what are you learning here?
  • #510
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:38am Jan 28, 2009 10:38am
You are learning that you don't control the market, and that you are getting lucky when you speculate.

Clockwork, old friend, I'm sure you disagree.
  • #511
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:01am Jan 28, 2009 11:01am
Quoting tdion
You are learning that you don't control the market, and that you are getting lucky when you speculate.

Clockwork, old friend, I'm sure you disagree.
i agree with you about the fact that we dont control the market. It doesn't care where you enter, where you place your tp or sl or what lot you use. it moves where it needs to and we just react to it.

But luck to me means nothing. It either goes your way or it doesn't. True or false/ right or wrong. That's it.

Ultimately, death is the only thing that's certain, everything else is just 'luck'
  • #512
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:02am Jan 28, 2009 11:02am
The natural mindset is to attribute winners to skill and losers to bad luck. Which might be a perfectly reasonable approach to protect your ego in other activites such as sport, but in this business only facts and the truth matter, not ego. Better to be humble and attribute winners to luck and blame yourself for the losers, at least then you become self-critical and take responsibility for the losers, then you might do something positive about them, instead of dismissing them as 'f*$*ed up price action'/irrational market/volatility/market manipulation etc., a mindset that will not advance the trader in any way. So whilst I do not think all profits are based on luck, it may serve the trader better to think of it in this way.
  • #513
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:23am Jan 28, 2009 11:23am
It's all a simple matter of probability. For example, if a daily pinbar is more probable to go my way on a ten pip break...than to go against me - that's it. That's all I need to know. Period, end of story.

I don't care about the British economy, or the reasons for it to do whatever. However, I still trade the Pound.

It's not that I believe I control the market. It's more like I can see what is likely. (At times....sometimes I can't. I stay out then.)

I still think that most of the game is based on psychology anyways.
  • #514
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:31pm Jan 28, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting clockwork71
It's all a simple matter of probability. For example, if a daily pinbar is more probable to go my way on a ten pip break...than to go against me - that's it. That's all I need to know. Period, end of story.

I don't care about the British economy, or the reasons for it to do whatever. However, I still trade the Pound.

It's not that I believe I control the market. It's more like I can see what is likely. (At times....sometimes I can't. I stay out then.)

I still think that most of the game is based on psychology anyways.
totally agree...i think 98% all in the head but then again isnt everything?
  • #515
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:45pm Jan 28, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
totally agree...i think 98% all in the head but then again isnt everything?
True, I once thought I couldn't fly. One cape and a ton of dreams later.....it's all part of a day at the office.
  • #516
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:45pm Jan 28, 2009 2:45pm
I like to be right 10% of the time. Even that may be pushing it. Factoring in the any trade is 50/50 i think thats all i need haha 60%??????
  • #517
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:26pm Jan 28, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting birdt
The natural mindset is to attribute winners to skill and losers to bad luck....
Bird, I see it slightly differently. I take full responsibility for how accurately and consistently I trade my plan, but whether individual trades turn out to be wins or losses falls outside of my control. I can't predict the market with anything close to 100% certainty - let alone control it - so why berate myself?

All TA is based on the assumption that a past pattern, cycle, behavior, etc is more likely to repeat itself in some way, than not; we are dealing with vague probabilities, not certainties.

Arguably more harmful than a loss is the scenario where a trader breaks from his plan, but the trade turns out to be a winner. A good example of this might be taking profit too quickly.

Anyway, one thing that does lie within my control is to put each loss behind me, and take the next occurrence of the same setup without flinching.
  • #518
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:13pm Jan 28, 2009 7:13pm
I believe luck plays some part in my trading..heck, luck play a lot of part in my life...

We tend to misjudge luck as a skill...
just like we tend to hold a theory as a reality...
a probability as a certainty...

In my perspective...we all fall into randomness..
  • #519
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:05pm Jan 28, 2009 8:05pm
Quote
Arguably more harmful than a loss is the scenario where a trader breaks from his plan, but the trade turns out to be a winner. A good example of this might be taking profit too quickly.

Bah. I did that Monday. Didn't "feel like" taking a trade that I should've and lost profit because of it. Bah. Double BAH. BAH BAH!

Trading isn't luck, it's conditional probability. Bet when the dice is a 6, win 66% of the time. The variance and distribution both point to this. It's so blindingly simple that it should go without saying, but some people enjoy their closed mind too much to learn.

This is one of those debates that should never need to occur among live traders. If you don't believe you can trade better than random chance then perhaps you shouldn't be in this business. That's fine, it's not for everybody.
  • #520
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:22pm Jan 28, 2009 8:22pm
The harder I work the luckier I get.
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