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  • #21
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:11am Mar 20, 2007 8:11am
There seems to be so much selling pressure in usdcad right now. I'm not trading this pair right now but I'll be selling any rallies in the future.

I'll be buying any dips in gbpjpy @ 299.00. Right now I'm just holding onto my eurgbp shorts and my eurusd longs (which is basically a gbpusd long). I've also got a really large long in xauusd - I'll post about that later.

Cable is just flying huh?
  • #22
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:15am Mar 20, 2007 8:15am
Quoting cesarnc
Just made a killing trading CAD news now. 40 pips in a spark.... EUR loss is more than absorbed now...

Never traded USDCAD before, but it was soooooo looking it was going to fall down the hole at the news...
You should have held onto the eurusd long. Even better yet, get long gbpusd - I'm looking at 9500 to really climb in.

Congrats on the usdcad trade; I really missed the boat on that one.
  • #23
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:15am Mar 20, 2007 8:15am
Quoting smjones
I am not big on predictions, better at postdictions... but, I think EU will reverse at about 3265 and then it should climb up past 3300

But don't trade on my advise, The stress would be too much for me... LOL
Good call!
  • #24
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:25am Mar 20, 2007 8:25am
I guess it's not where all the excitement is right now but I've chosen this spot to go long audjpy @ 93.85 1:2.5 and a stop at 93.00. Just to build on my carry trades.
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  • #25
  • Mar 20, 2007 8:26am Mar 20, 2007 8:26am
Quoting faure
You should have held onto the eurusd long. Even better yet, get long gbpusd - I'm looking at 9500 to really climb in.

Congrats on the usdcad trade; I really missed the boat on that one.
No faure, as the CAD trading cut my Euro losses I let the Euro for the run and took profit in this last assault at 3310.

Euro is likely to go further up, but this pair almost drove me insane since y'day. So I pulled the plug, cash in the pocket

The USDCAD was due to a report I received, stating that the Core CPI 0.2% forecast was already a critical figure for inflation purposes. So I gave it a shot and the Core CPI came out at 0.5%. This was pure luck. Well, a few guts and timely entry, too
  • #26
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:47am Mar 20, 2007 10:47am
Quoting cesarnc
No faure, as the CAD trading cut my Euro losses I let the Euro for the run and took profit in this last assault at 3310.

Euro is likely to go further up, but this pair almost drove me insane since y'day. So I pulled the plug, cash in the pocket

The USDCAD was due to a report I received, stating that the Core CPI 0.2% forecast was already a critical figure for inflation purposes. So I gave it a shot and the Core CPI came out at 0.5%. This was pure luck. Well, a few guts and timely entry, too
Good job. I couldn't trade the Canadian CPI and I was hoping I wouldn't miss out. I did. Yeah the euro has been really slow the past couple of days but I think it's just catching it's breath. Trichet could be the guy to really make the market move.
  • #27
  • Mar 20, 2007 10:53am Mar 20, 2007 10:53am
Some of my eurjpy in-the-money stops have been tripped so I've only got a 1:2.5 position at 154.71 left. I'm happy to leave this trade for now and concentrate on building positions in yen carries with a wider interest rate spread.
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  • #28
  • Mar 20, 2007 3:10pm Mar 20, 2007 3:10pm
Tomorrow already has all it takes to be a hell of a day.

What you guys expecting from BOE minutes and FOMC?

There's a talk of a possible 6-3 for BOE minutes, implying a "likely" rate hike for April and thus taking the market to start pricing this hike in.

FOMC expected to leave rate as is. But there's a little hope for rate cut...

I'd like to be long at 9200 and tomorrow comes 5-4 and US rate cut...
  • #29
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:40pm Mar 20, 2007 11:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
Tomorrow already has all it takes to be a hell of a day.

What you guys expecting from BOE minutes and FOMC?

There's a talk of a possible 6-3 for BOE minutes, implying a "likely" rate hike for April and thus taking the market to start pricing this hike in.

FOMC expected to leave rate as is. But there's a little hope for rate cut...

I'd like to be long at 9200 and tomorrow comes 5-4 and US rate cut...
What's struck me is that gbpusd has barely budged during the Asian session. It wasn't unreasonable to expect some profit taking after yesterday's hard run but that's been kept in check by new buyers coming in. The eurusd is also starting to tick higher again.

I don't think it would be unlikely to see some dollar strength today on one of the news releases - it would be a great fade.
  • #30
  • Mar 21, 2007 12:00am Mar 21, 2007 12:00am
Awesome journal Faure, I'll be following it closely!
  • #31
  • Mar 21, 2007 7:43am Mar 21, 2007 7:43am
Quoting faure
I guess it's not where all the excitement is right now but I've chosen this spot to go long audjpy @ 93.85 1:2.5 and a stop at 93.00. Just to build on my carry trades.
I've moved my stop higher on this one to 93.50. I'm expecting a breakout on usdjpy, probably north since the SnP broke important levels yesterday and ended the session strongly.

I'm just holding onto my other trades for now although I got rid of my gold longs at 660. I'm still looking to short usdcad at around 1640. But if we get a break substantially below 1600 I'll use a sell stop to enter.

The market has been pretty quiet today - guess everyone is waiting for the interest rate statement. I think I could get some heat on my dollar shorts because we know they won't raise. Buy the rumor sell the news.

Right now I'm trying to get a good entry on gbpusd (9587 at the moment) looking at 9500 as my initial stop. I've entered long 1:1 at 9588 and as you can see on the chart I have another two orders at 9560/9532, both at 1:1.
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  • #32
  • Mar 21, 2007 7:44am Mar 21, 2007 7:44am
Any views for the day?

BOE 8-1 failed to prop Cable through 9555, good support?

I'm a buyer at 9555 / 9510-9500 / 4hr 250 EMA.

But my concern is what is gonna happen at FOMC today.... US news x market reaction have been too creepy lately.

Thoughts?
  • #33
  • Mar 21, 2007 7:47am Mar 21, 2007 7:47am
Quoting zawodowiec
Awesome journal Faure, I'll be following it closely!
Thanks for the props . Don't hesitate to tell me what you think.
  • #34
  • Mar 21, 2007 8:08am Mar 21, 2007 8:08am
Quoting cesarnc
Any views for the day?

BOE 8-1 failed to prop Cable through 9555, good support?

I'm a buyer at 9555 / 9510-9500 / 4hr 250 EMA.

But my concern is what is gonna happen at FOMC today.... US news x market reaction have been too creepy lately.

Thoughts?
I see a 7-2 vote was expected; that would imply a 8-1 vote for a no change is bearish for gbpusd. I was expecting some news to come out in favour of the dollar - I'm just going to be fading it. It's all about FOMC tonight.
  • #35
  • Mar 21, 2007 8:22am Mar 21, 2007 8:22am
Quoting faure
I'm still looking to short usdcad at around 1640. But if we get a break substantially below 1600 I'll use a sell stop to enter.
The usdcad rate has just dropped below 1600 on worse than expected retail sales numbers. It's just shouting "short me!". It's an old idea but a market that inversely responds to news is usually telling you something. It seems that even after yesterday's near 200 pip drop, usdcad has a lot more sellers left.

I've just executed a large sell order on usdcad (1:10, ave. price 1588) with stops scattered at 1615/25. It's a pretty large trade with a tight stop but this is purely a breakout trade - either it works straight away or not at all. This trade needs to be in the money by the time FOMC rolls around tonight or I'll look to scrap it.
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  • #36
  • Mar 21, 2007 8:27am Mar 21, 2007 8:27am
Quoting cesarnc
Any views for the day?

BOE 8-1 failed to prop Cable through 9555, good support?

I'm a buyer at 9555 / 9510-9500 / 4hr 250 EMA.

But my concern is what is gonna happen at FOMC today.... US news x market reaction have been too creepy lately.

Thoughts?
Technically I think that cable below 9500 is not a good sign and my charts show that the 250 EMA is at 9475. At the moment I wouldn't be comfortable buying that low.

The market's reaction to news has been creepy? What do you mean exactly?
  • #37
  • Mar 21, 2007 8:50am Mar 21, 2007 8:50am
Quoting faure
Technically I think that cable below 9500 is not a good sign and my charts show that the 250 EMA is at 9475. At the moment I wouldn't be comfortable buying that low.

The market's reaction to news has been creepy? What do you mean exactly?
Actually creepy have been the annoying revisions. "Too bad a figure? No problem! There you have a nice previous revision up". And vice-versa.
  • #38
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:12am Mar 21, 2007 9:12am
Quoting cesarnc
Actually creepy have been the annoying revisions. "Too bad a figure? No problem! There you have a nice previous revision up". And vice-versa.
Yeah, I know what you mean.

I've been reading over some opinions on the FOMC meeting today and there seems to be general consensus that a cut is priced in sometime this year. Now if they come out telling us that they are still looking at inflation as the main issue we will have a case for a stronger dollar. The question is whether or not the market will sell the news. In a situation like this, I like to see how the market has been pricing 24 hours before the announcement. Right now the dollar seems to be weak to stable - not a good sign for dollar longs.

I'm very short dollars, infact my total exposure is short 1:24 - that's a very big position going into this announcement. I'm somewhat nervous but my stops are all in good places so I'll just sit tight and see how it plays out.

You've gotta have conviction or don't even bother entering.

  • #39
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:42pm Mar 21, 2007 1:42pm
Quoting faure
The question is whether or not the market will sell the news. In a situation like this, I like to see how the market has been pricing 24 hours before the announcement. Right now the dollar seems to be weak to stable - not a good sign for dollar longs.
Today was a real case of sell the news. The dollar has been losing ground for a few weeks now but I still don't see an apparent reason for it. The eurusd is at 2 year highs and my large usdcad short is going well. The time for profit taking might be near; we could see the closing out of dollar shorts at the start of Friday's NY session.
  • #40
  • Edited 2:02pm Mar 21, 2007 1:50pm | Edited 2:02pm
A quick update on my positions. The eurgbp stop has been tightened up to 6815 and my usdcad stops have been moved to just in-the-money at 1585.

My gbpusd scaling entry only got filled on one-third. So that leaves me with a 1:1 position at an average price of 9588.

I took a large, short dollar position before the FOMC but the risk was limited and the upside is now looking good.
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