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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #1,361
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:42am Jan 28, 2009 9:42am
Quoting 200ema
Sam,

Wait until wave 2 has proven its top (a lower high than 1.4372) via a 3 wave movement up. It will likely be in the 61.8% to 88.6% retracement range. Once you see a lower high put in that should be wave 2's top. The next lower high will come soon after as wave 2 of 3 of 3.

Catching wave 2's top may be difficult for you; however, catching wave 2 of 3 of 3's top is a little easier and it will also prove to be a lower risk trade to enter (smaller stoploss required).

I hope this helps.
I do not see 5 clean waves down on the Pound. Am I missing something?
  • #1,362
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:54am Jan 28, 2009 9:54am
Quoting pipeye
I do not see 5 clean waves down on the Pound. Am I missing something?
Hi Pipeye,

The only time frame I can count 5 waves down on right now is the 1 minute chart.
  • #1,363
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:01am Jan 28, 2009 10:01am
Quoting 200ema
Hi Pipeye,

The only time frame I can count 5 waves down on right now is the 1 minute chart.
Even on the 1 min you can't get five down without overlap.
  • #1,364
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:05am Jan 28, 2009 10:05am
We just had five clean waves "up" on the 5 min.
  • #1,365
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:26am Jan 28, 2009 10:26am
Quoting pipeye
We just had five clean waves "up" on the 5 min.
Sh*t! I saw a clean 3-wave down followed by 5-wave up too. Cable is quite stubborn. I suspect it may be doing something funny there. It may register a new high again? If that's the case, it got hit again today,trying to catch top of Cable
  • #1,366
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:30am Jan 28, 2009 10:30am
Quoting ninohoang
Sh*t! I saw a clean 3-wave down followed by 5-wave up too. Cable is quite stubborn. I suspect it may be doing something funny there. It may register a new high again? If that's the case, it got hit again today,trying to catch top of Cable
Here is a 4 hour chart. I believe Cable wants to hit the 61.8 retrace @ 1.4416.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gbpusd.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,367
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:41am Jan 28, 2009 10:41am
Quoting pipeye
Here is a 4 hour chart. I believe Cable wants to hit the 61.8 retrace @ 1.4416.
Yeah, it should be the last defend for the entire impulsive down move. Is it common to have W4 retrace to or even more than 61.8% of W3? the probability for W5 failure is high in that case right?
  • #1,368
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:44am Jan 28, 2009 10:44am
Quoting ninohoang
Yeah, it should be the last defend for the entire impulsive down move. Is it common to have W4 retrace to or even more than 61.8% of W3? the probability for W5 failure is high in that case right?
I really believe we are going to see some major truncation. Looking at the Dollar Index, we look to be starting a big C wave down in it's correction, so I am anticipating some medium term Dollar weakness.
  • #1,369
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:49am Jan 28, 2009 10:49am
Quoting 200ema
Hi Pipeye,

The only time frame I can count 5 waves down on right now is the 1 minute chart.
Do you think it is the top of 2 at .786 fib in M5 ?
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,370
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:50am Jan 28, 2009 10:50am
Quoting pipeye
I really believe we are going to see some major truncation. Looking at the Dollar Index, we look to be starting a big C wave down in it's correction, so I am anticipating some medium term Dollar weakness.
Yeah, the probability is high that we will see 5th wave truncation. I'm hoping that Cable can go down abit, so that I can scale out my positions. Bad day!
  • #1,371
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:53am Jan 28, 2009 10:53am
Quoting samdani786
Do you think it is the top of 2 at .786 fib in M5 ?
HI Sam,
It's quite possible. I can count 5-wave down on M1 time frame too. Hope it can go down a bit further. Cheers
  • #1,372
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:00am Jan 28, 2009 11:00am
Quoting ninohoang
HI Sam,
It's quite possible. I can count 5-wave down on M1 time frame too. Hope it can go down a bit further. Cheers
see the thing is that i see 5 wave up in euro so that means it need to come down for correction and usually euro and gbp moves side by side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 25 KB
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,373
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:16am Jan 28, 2009 11:16am
Quoting ninohoang
HI Sam,
It's quite possible. I can count 5-wave down on M1 time frame too. Hope it can go down a bit further. Cheers

If you take a closer look at the 1min chart, you can't find five down without some overlap. Not to mention, the 5 up on the 5min, indicates that we have at least 5 more small waves up to come.

The Eur/GBP is losing on the day, which tells me that the Pound has greater relative strength at the moment, so it is possible that it creates another high.
  • #1,374
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:16am Jan 28, 2009 11:16am
Quoting samdani786
see the thing is that i see 5 wave up in euro so that means it need to come down for correction and usually euro and gbp moves side by side.
Well, eur and gbp do not necessarily move side by side. Cable also depends on eurgbp and gbpjpy. Right now, I see the 5-wave impulsive up move of gbpjpy is probably over. The it will be followed by a correction. So in very short term, we could see some down move of gbpusd. However, I anticipate that there will be some USD weakness coming soon. Cheers
  • #1,375
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:24am Jan 28, 2009 11:24am
Quoting pipeye
If you take a closer look at the 1min chart, you can't find five down without some overlap. Not to mention, the 5 up on the 5min, indicates that we have at least 5 more small waves up to come.

The Eur/GBP is losing on the day, which tells me that the Pound has greater relative strength at the moment, so it is possible that it creates another high.
yeah you are 100% right on that. I see the 5 waves up on M5.
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,376
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:24am Jan 28, 2009 11:24am
Quoting pipeye
If you take a closer look at the 1min chart, you can't find five down without some overlap. Not to mention, the 5 up on the 5min, indicates that we have at least 5 more small waves up to come.

The Eur/GBP is losing on the day, which tells me that the Pound has greater relative strength at the moment, so it is possible that it creates another high.
I noticed that too. Gbpusd is likely to register a new high, which is probably right at 61.8% Fib retracement of W3 down. Then, we probably see at least a decent pull-back to the down side from there. Cheers!
  • #1,377
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:30am Jan 28, 2009 11:30am
Quoting ninohoang
Well, eur and gbp do not necessarily move side by side. Cable also depends on eurgbp and gbpjpy. Right now, I see the 5-wave impulsive up move of gbpjpy is probably over. The it will be followed by a correction. So in very short term, we could see some down move of gbpusd. However, I anticipate that there will be some USD weakness coming soon. Cheers
isnt it that the gbp/jpy is the multiple product of gbp/usd and usd/jpy ? cause if you multiply the price of usd/jpy and gbp/usd, you come up with the price of gbp/jyp ?
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,378
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:37am Jan 28, 2009 11:37am
Quoting samdani786
isnt it that the gbp/jpy is the multiple product of gbp/usd and usd/jpy ? cause if you multiply the price of usd/jpy and gbp/usd, you come up with the price of gbp/jyp ?
Yeah, you are right. So I think movement of gbpusd is also pretty much dependent on that of gbpjpy, which is likely to set up for a long trade after a correction coming near. Regards
  • #1,379
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:41am Jan 28, 2009 11:41am
Hey Guys,

Euro has already completed 5 waves up on the larger time frames. And if you look at the 5 min chart, we have a clear 5 waves down with a 3 wave retracement to the 50 fib. I am short from 1.3261 area.

This seems to fit with Euro being a little weaker that the Pound today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #1,380
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:01pm Jan 28, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting pipeye
Hey Guys,

Euro has already completed 5 waves up on the larger time frames. And if you look at the 5 min chart, we have a clear 5 waves down with a 3 wave retracement to the 50 fib. I am short from 1.3261 area.

This seems to fit with Euro being a little weaker that the Pound today.
good luck man. Its 1:00 pm Est. and i am so confused that will sit on the side line for a while.
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
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