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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #1,321
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:05am Jan 28, 2009 6:05am
Quoting 200ema
Hi Sam,

IF...and I do mean IF you choose to take this trade keep you stop in place at 1.4328 (plus your dealers spread) until the market has proven what I "think" is the wave 2 high. All it needs to do to prove it is make a shor term low, and then move upward again to see if it can get above the Wave 2 high of 1.4318...If it fails to make a new high, you're good to go.

Once it has proven the Wave 2 high and moved down some 30+ pips, move your stop down to break even or to the top of the wave 2 high to reduce your risk.

See what I mean. What I "though" was the top of wave 2 was actually only wave 3 of 5 of C/2!!! If you had moved your stop too soon, you would have lost the trade.
  • #1,322
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:07am Jan 28, 2009 6:07am
Quoting 200ema
See what I mean. What I "though" was the top of wave 2 was actually only wave 3 of 5 of C/2!!! If you had moved your stop too soon, you would have lost the trade.
Now...wait some more and let the market prove that the new top of wave 2 is as high as it can go....Then you can move your stop down, once you have 30+ pips to the good.
  • #1,323
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:22am Jan 28, 2009 6:22am
Quoting 200ema
Now...wait some more and let the market prove that the new top of wave 2 is as high as it can go....Then you can move your stop down, once you have 30+ pips to the good.

Wow!!

This thread became more active after 200ema here..

Thanks 200ema..
  • #1,324
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:26am Jan 28, 2009 6:26am
Quoting Blue bottle
Wow!!

This thread became more active after 200ema here..

Thanks 200ema..
No worries.... Everyone should make some $$$ while they are learning to trade...right?
  • #1,325
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:33am Jan 28, 2009 6:33am
Hi 200ema,

Hope it helps you..
Attached Image
  • #1,326
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:34am Jan 28, 2009 6:34am
Quoting 200ema
No worries.... Everyone should make some $$$ while they are learning to trade...right?
thats for sure. Thanks everyone
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,327
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:54am Jan 28, 2009 6:54am
...See what can happen...but at least it's only a 20 pip loss. Not much to risk when you have a potential 1300 pips of profit...right?

Either way, one thing was just proven wrong and that was the top at 1.4328; however, a new top is coming in now, and it shouldn't be much above the 1.4342 mark.

It's something for you to watch.
  • #1,328
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:57am Jan 28, 2009 6:57am
Quoting 200ema
...See what can happen...but at least it's only a 20 pip loss. Not much to risk when you have a potential 1300 pips of profit...right?

Either way, one thing was just proven wrong and that was the top at 1.4328; however, a new top is coming in now, and it shouldn't be much above the 1.4342 mark.

It's something for you to watch.
yup i am watchin it very closely. Euro went up and it took "i think " gbp with it
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,329
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:05am Jan 28, 2009 7:05am
Current high on the GBP/USD is 1.4342, and that "might" be all the market has to give it, but there may be one more kick-at-the-can here to make a new high above it.... That said, if the market makes a low below 1.4281, that lends itself to a bearish move and the top is more likely to be in at 1.4342.

All we can do now is watch, and trade what we see. IF the top is truely in, the market WILL come back test it to the tune of fibs. 61.8% to 88.6% retracement....so, DON'T chase the market. Let it come to you.

Remember, if you have the patience to wait this move out, this single trade may be worth 1300+ pips.
  • #1,330
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:10am Jan 28, 2009 7:10am
Quoting 200ema
Current high on the GBP/USD is 1.4342, and that "might" be all the market has to give it, but there may be one more kick-at-the-can here to make a new high above it.... That said, if the market makes a low below 1.4281, that lends itself to a bearish move and the top is more likely to be in at 1.4342.

All we can do now is watch, and trade what we see. IF the top is truely in, the market WILL come back test it to the tune of fibs. 61.8% to 88.6% retracement....so, DON'T chase the market. Let it come to you.

Remember, if you have the patience...
well said. Its worth waiting and watch for confirmation. There has to be a big move and we want to catch that. good luck. I am with you in this
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,331
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:12am Jan 28, 2009 7:12am
A new low below 1.4293 would give us 5 wave down on a 1 minute chart...Which then just leaves us to wait for 3 waves up to sell the rally.
  • #1,332
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:22am Jan 28, 2009 7:22am
Tops of Wave 3, Wave 5, and Wave 2 (in that order) can create a Head N' Shoulders formation....So, that is something else you can watch for....

We've got something starting to look like a Head N' Shoulders formation on the 5 minute chart right now....
  • #1,333
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:27am Jan 28, 2009 7:27am
Quoting 200ema
Tops of Wave 3, Wave 5, and Wave 2 (in that order) can create a Head N' Shoulders formation....So, that is something else you can watch for....

We've got something starting to look like a Head N' Shoulders formation on the 5 minute chart right now....
...and 90% of Head N' Shoulders formations will show negative divergence on MACD...which we have.
  • #1,334
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:38am Jan 28, 2009 7:38am
Quoting 200ema
...and 90% of Head N' Shoulders formations will show negative divergence on MACD...which we have.
divergence on which TF ?
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,335
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:42am Jan 28, 2009 7:42am
Quoting samdani786
divergence on which TF ?
yeah i see it . What you think . is it a good idea to go short at the neck line or on the break of the trend line of the right shoulder ?
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,336
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:44am Jan 28, 2009 7:44am
is this the one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 25 KB
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,337
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:45am Jan 28, 2009 7:45am
Quoting samdani786
divergence on which TF ?
5 minute, 15 minute, and 1 hour currently...but the Head N' Shoulders formation is on the 5 minute chart. You can see it on the 15 minute chart too, but it's not as clear.

That said, I'm not seeing any resonable momentum behind a bearish move right now...Which gives me pause.... I think we're looking for a new high right now...not a break of the Head N' Shoulders formation.
  • #1,338
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:50am Jan 28, 2009 7:50am
Quoting 200ema
5 minute, 15 minute, and 1 hour currently...but the Head N' Shoulders formation is on the 5 minute chart. You can see it on the 15 minute chart too, but it's not as clear.

That said, I'm not seeing any resonable momentum behind a bearish move right now...Which gives me pause.... I think we're looking for a new high right now...not a break of the Head N' Shoulders formation.
...but, I could be wrong. When the market is moving this slow it's more difficult to tell which direction has more momentum to it.
  • #1,339
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:52am Jan 28, 2009 7:52am
Quoting 200ema
...but, I could be wrong. When the market is moving this slow it's more difficult to tell which direction has more momentum to it.
do you consider pivot points at all for entries cause it is above the R1 right now. What you think if we wait to see she comes down below R1 which is 142.70 to get in ?
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #1,340
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:56am Jan 28, 2009 7:56am
it is now very close to the trend line anyway and if it touches it and rebouned, i am gonna get in anyway
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
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