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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #1,301
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:58am Jan 28, 2009 12:58am
Now starting miniscule wave 3 of 3. (If I'm correct of course).
  • #1,302
  • Jan 28, 2009 1:27am Jan 28, 2009 1:27am
Truncated 5th or complex corrective 4th wave....? Will have to wait to see if we get 5 waves down and 3 waves up to confirm. Either way, I'll have to re-count.

Off hand, I don't see enough momentum for this new move low to be a wave 1, so I'm still looking for a new high.
  • #1,303
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:21am Jan 28, 2009 2:21am
I'm short at 1.4270, stop to breakeven after 30 pips. A break below 1.4208 should confirm a bearish case, at which point I'm in for a 2nd lot.

We'll see how she plays out.
  • #1,304
  • Edited 3:36am Jan 28, 2009 3:05am | Edited 3:36am
Got stopped out (obviously).

If my count is correct, we've just put in the top of wave 3 at 1.4228, so we should now see a 4th wave down and a final 5th to a new high...with stong resistence at 1.4349 (bottom of wave 1 of the same degree).

I hope I'm helping someone out there. If not, just ignore the man behind the curtain Dorthy.....
  • #1,305
  • Edited 4:01am Jan 28, 2009 3:44am | Edited 4:01am
5 minute chart:

We've just completed 3 waves down (wave 4?); however, in the process of completing what I'm calling wave 4 we have entered the price territory of wave 1 of the same degree! So, the outlook is more bearish with it more likely that we have just completed leg 3 of 1 down than having completed wave 4 of 5 toward a new top.

Either way, we should now see a pullback, followed by either a new low below 1.4228 or a move toward a new high above 1.4328.

If a new low is made, sit tight and wait for wave 1 to complete. Wave 2 will then move back up toward the 1.4328 high and into the fibs. retracement zone of 61.8% to 88.6% but will not exceed the high at 1.4328. Wait for a top to prove itself, and then sell the rally.

Cheers.
  • #1,306
  • Jan 28, 2009 4:18am Jan 28, 2009 4:18am
Hi everyone, I like to participate with my veiws even though i am not sure about them (lol) I think we just finished the wave one and ready to come down for the 2nd. Correct me if i am wrong.
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  • #1,307
  • Jan 28, 2009 4:56am Jan 28, 2009 4:56am
Hi Sam,

I haven't been trading the EUR/USD for quite some time now, so I don't have a good grasp of where it is with regard to Elliott Wave; however, the EURO and the Pound usually trend together, and given that the GBP/USD is getting set to drop it would follow that the EUR/USD is getting ready to do the same.

Sorry I can't say much more than that at this time.
  • #1,308
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:00am Jan 28, 2009 5:00am
here is what i think about the cable. Please do comments and corrections. It will help me a lot
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  • #1,309
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:08am Jan 28, 2009 5:08am
You got it. We've just finished Wave IV up within wave V of 3. We can start to look toward a new low below 1.3500. (That is, unless the market proves me wrong).

Good work.

Elliott Wave takes some doing at first, and no one gets it correct all the time. You are consently dealing with variable and different possible wave counts, so you have to let the market prove you right or wrong (which is where your stoploss settings come in).

Personally, I keep an ongoing count of the GBP/USD on my office wall with both a daily chart and a 4 hour chart. It helps me track the lower time frames and stay on the correct side of the market.
  • #1,310
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:08am Jan 28, 2009 5:08am
Quoting samdani786
Hi everyone, I like to participate with my veiws even though i am not sure about them (lol) I think we just finished the wave one and ready to come down for the 2nd. Correct me if i am wrong.
Hi there,
The current up move is W5 (may or may not have failure) of 3 or C. Some people thing the entire up move is impulsive. If that is the case then, we would see a correction then the price rallies again. I personally think that the entire up move is corrective W4. If I am correct, then we would see the big down move following that current W5 up. Either the case, we should see at least the pull back when the current W5:C or W5:3 is over.Maybe a good short trade there. Cheers
  • #1,311
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:12am Jan 28, 2009 5:12am
Quoting 200ema
Got stopped out (obviously).

If my count is correct, we've just put in the top of wave 3 at 1.4228, so we should now see a 4th wave down and a final 5th to a new high...with stong resistence at 1.4349 (bottom of wave 1 of the same degree).

I hope I'm helping someone out there. If not, just ignore the man behind the curtain Dorthy.....
Hi there, Can you kindly put ur chart to see more clearly. I am also ready to short but waiting for candles comfirmation
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  • #1,312
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:15am Jan 28, 2009 5:15am
It will be easy to tell if we have completed wave C of 4 or if we have completed wave 3 of 5. All that needs to happen to prove the wave C of 4 count wrong is for the market to move above 1.4349. If the GBP/USD moves above this level of resistence, we are most likely in wave 3 of 5....or if the market pulls back and then moves above the 1.4349 level we would them be in wave 5 of 5 of A.

If we have just completed wave 3 of 5, we can still expect a pullback to move down into the 1.4030 area, before it moves higher.
  • #1,313
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:19am Jan 28, 2009 5:19am
Hi Sam,

As you can tell my the total number of posts I've made (very few) I don't tend to post much or often. That said, I honestly don't even know how to post my charts. Also, I'm a little "old school" and tend to only write my Elliott wave count on hard copy charts, not the charts that are on my PC.

Sorry....
  • #1,314
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:28am Jan 28, 2009 5:28am
Quoting 200ema
Hi Sam,

As you can tell my the total number of posts I've made (very few) I don't tend to post much or often. That said, I honestly don't even know how to post my charts. Also, I'm a little "old school" and tend to only write my Elliott wave count on hard copy charts, not the charts that are on my PC.

Sorry....
oh ok . Another thing, Do you have counts for CAD also. Let me post my chart to get ur comments on that . I think it is setting up for a big move up Thanks.
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  • #1,315
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:39am Jan 28, 2009 5:39am
Quoting ninohoang
Hi there,
The current up move is W5 (may or may not have failure) of 3 or C. Some people thing the entire up move is impulsive. If that is the case then, we would see a correction then the price rallies again. I personally think that the entire up move is corrective W4. If I am correct, then we would see the big down move following that current W5 up. Either the case, we should see at least the pull back when the current W5:C or W5:3 is over.Maybe a good short trade there. Cheers
So, Nino, if it is a wave 5, then it should come down for correction. That means either way it is a good idea to get short of course after the confirmatins
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  • #1,316
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:41am Jan 28, 2009 5:41am
Hi Sam,

I tend to only trade the GBP/USD; however, given the USD Index, the expected drop in the GBP/USD - indicating a stronger USD, as well as the chart you provided.... I'd have to agree with you. I'd expect a new high before there is any kind of significant pull back (1.1500ish) in the USD/CAD. That said, you may also want to take a look at some higher timeframe charts (weekly and/or monthly) to determine if what is happening is an ABC retracement or part of a larger USD advance.
  • #1,317
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:50am Jan 28, 2009 5:50am
Feel free to short the GBP/USD anytime now (if you are so inclined) with a stop just above the 1.4328 high. Price has reached the 88.6% retracement of the prior down move (Wave 1 of 1), which puts us at the top of wave 2 of 1 (unless the market breaks the current high of 1.4328 that is, adn proves me wrong).
  • #1,318
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:53am Jan 28, 2009 5:53am
Quoting 200ema
Hi Sam,

I tend to only trade the GBP/USD; however, given the USD Index, the expected drop in the GBP/USD - indicating a stronger USD, as well as the chart you provided.... I'd have to agree with you. I'd expect a new high before there is any kind of significant pull back (1.1500ish) in the USD/CAD. That said, you may also want to take a look at some higher timeframe charts (weekly and/or monthly) to determine if what is happening is an ABC retracement or part of a larger USD advance.
Thanks for ur advice. It means a lot to me. Also, in cable, i have a trend line around 144.Do you think it will go there ? It seems like still have some steam
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  • #1,319
  • Jan 28, 2009 5:55am Jan 28, 2009 5:55am
Quoting 200ema
Feel free to short the GBP/USD anytime now (if you are so inclined) with a stop just above the 1.4328 high. Price has reached the 88.6% retracement of the prior down move (Wave 1 of 1), which puts us at the top of wave 2 of 1 (unless the market breaks the current high of 1.4328 that is, adn proves me wrong).
oh ok . I gues i am ready to go Thanks
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  • #1,320
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:00am Jan 28, 2009 6:00am
Quoting samdani786
oh ok . I gues i am ready to go Thanks

Hi Sam,

IF...and I do mean IF you choose to take this trade keep you stop in place at 1.4328 (plus your dealers spread) until the market has proven what I "think" is the wave 2 high. All it needs to do to prove it is make a shor term low, and then move upward again to see if it can get above the Wave 2 high of 1.4318...If it fails to make a new high, you're good to go.

Once it has proven the Wave 2 high and moved down some 30+ pips, move your stop down to break even or to the top of the wave 2 high to reduce your risk.
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