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Another way to trade PA profitably

  • #141
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:42am Apr 17, 2008 10:42am
How does COT report benefit for you?

Quoting Urchin
I will be waiting for the next COT report to show me if there is a change of sentiment but so far I should thank the commercials.

..and the Elliot Wave Theory.
  • #142
  • Edited 11:50am Apr 17, 2008 11:38am | Edited 11:50am
the COT report sets the market direction for me. I know and you should know that the COT is published with a delay, so wait for the price action that confirms time of entry. COT itself is a red herring.

Read from the start of this thread and see how some traders here positioned themselves based on the COT reading. There is nothing wrong setting up your own reading but do it in conjunction with the CURRENT market, today's price action. This is what I do.

If the COT shows a substantial addition of the commercials on either side of the market, I go against them for short-term play. I follow the commercials once they start losing it. This is not a bullet-proof system and none is.

This time around, as you can see, I knew there were 30K new commercial traders added to COT in GBP/USD long position. Hey, this is quite a number!
But what if I jump in immediately, on the long side? yes, you got it - I lose, like an impatient gambler, inexperienced rookie. What should I do? Wait for MY price action and get in.

Just stay calm, let the market bring you the freshness of breeze (Price Action) and... be ready to lose.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #143
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:26am Apr 18, 2008 5:26am
that was a good breakout. I am closing this trade with 220 pips. it might be enough per week. I shall wait for a new COT till tonight.

Good luck!
Attached Image
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #144
  • Apr 22, 2008 5:31pm Apr 22, 2008 5:31pm
If you followed the COT report (9K increase of the commercials buying GBP/USD), price action suggestive of bullish reversal was still to be found until early today. PA pattern (pinbar) bouncing off the former daily resistance had a setup for me.
Attached Image
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #145
  • Jun 15, 2008 3:37pm Jun 15, 2008 3:37pm
Dear Thread,

Interesting read. Thanks for everyone's input. What, finally, is the best source for a quick visual read of COT? And, is it as simple as, figure out which direction the commericals are trading and use your own technicals to follow them?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #146
  • Jun 15, 2008 5:44pm Jun 15, 2008 5:44pm
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Thread,

Interesting read. Thanks for everyone's input. What, finally, is the best source for a quick visual read of COT? And, is it as simple as, figure out which direction the commericals are trading and use your own technicals to follow them?

Thanks,

Lenoxer

pm me, so that i can send you a link where you can read some cot charts.
cheers
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #147
  • Jan 26, 2009 10:54am Jan 26, 2009 10:54am
Quoting SeekingLight
Just go to the first post, click edit, choose advanced and you can edit the title.

PHP Code
Going from the COT on the USDX and EUR FX it appears there are a lot of people believing in a stronger dollar around :)
Dunno, seems the COT is also wrong a lot of times and only COT Pin bars (fast move to extremes of both, then almost as fast move back happens next) seem to work okay, and the commercials also seem to love getting out of positions pretty darn quick => I see diminished positions rather rapidly.
good
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #148
  • Jan 26, 2009 10:54am Jan 26, 2009 10:54am
Quoting SeekingLight
Just go to the first post, click edit, choose advanced and you can edit the title.

PHP Code
Going from the COT on the USDX and EUR FX it appears there are a lot of people believing in a stronger dollar around :)
Dunno, seems the COT is also wrong a lot of times and only COT Pin bars (fast move to extremes of both, then almost as fast move back happens next) seem to work okay, and the commercials also seem to love getting out of positions pretty darn quick => I see diminished positions rather rapidly.
testing
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #149
  • Jan 26, 2009 10:55am Jan 26, 2009 10:55am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hm I am still lacking a decent source for COTs and a good visual representation.

I'm also still not convinced at all that it works for me...maybe I'm just unable to interpret it correctly...it'd help a lot if there were actual pictures posted as well with an explanation along with the PA accompanying it, giving the whole thing a bit of meaning...

Currently it's just some posts that could be anything...I read "long USDCHF will be great next week", I look at the USDX and think...."hohum....how's that thing going to fly..." even though one...
testing
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #150
  • Jan 26, 2009 10:56am Jan 26, 2009 10:56am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hm
Inserted Code
I am still lacking a decent source for COTs and a good visual representation.
I'm also still not convinced at all that it works for me...maybe I'm just unable to interpret it correctly...it'd help a lot if there were actual pictures posted as well with an explanation along with the PA accompanying it, giving the whole thing a bit of meaning...

Currently it's just some posts that could be anything...I read "long USDCHF will be great next week", I look at the USDX and think...."hohum....how's that thing going to fly..." even...
testing
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #151
  • Jan 26, 2009 10:57am Jan 26, 2009 10:57am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hm I am still lacking a decent source for COTs and a good visual representation.

I'm also still not convinced at all that it works for me...maybe I'm just unable to interpret it correctly...it'd help a lot if there were actual pictures posted as well with an explanation along with the PA accompanying it, giving the whole thing a bit of meaning...

Currently it's just some posts that could be anything...I read "long USDCHF will be great next week", I look at the USDX and think...."hohum....how's that thing going to fly..." even though one...
[/quote]
testing
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #152
  • Jan 26, 2009 10:58am Jan 26, 2009 10:58am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hm I am still lacking a decent source for COTs and a good visual representation.

I'm also still not convinced at all that it works for me...maybe I'm just unable to interpret it correctly...it'd help a lot if there were actual pictures posted as well with an explanation along with the PA accompanying it, giving the whole thing a bit of meaning...

Currently it's just some posts that could be anything...I read "long USDCHF will be great next week", I look at the USDX and think...."hohum....how's that thing going to fly..." even though one...
[/php]
testing
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #153
  • Last Post: Jan 30, 2009 10:08am Jan 30, 2009 10:08am
great thread guys.

i've been checking out the charts and I find its more profitable to be on the large speculators side rather than the commercials side.

I couldn't understand why until I read that the commercials aren't trading for profit their primary or sole interest is to hedge themselves as they usually posses the respective commodity or currency so they just want to protect themselves from their assets losing value. So we find many times when the charts going up they are short and vice versa. So it appears not to pay to follow them.

But I find is that the large speculators are usually on the right side of the market most of the time. The reason is their in it to speculate for a profit.

You can confirm this by looking at the charts of large speculators versus comercials.

I read somewhere in this thread we should do as the commercials do. My question is would this be correct?

Looking over the charts I find its much more profitable to do as the large speculators do. This is my practical finding and I hope the reason I mentioned above makes sense.

As for small speculators from the charts I find they have no clue as to where prices are going they're just lucky sometimes and get it right so there doesnt even seem to be any point in plotting them on the charts. I think all we need on the charts are the large speculators and commercials position.

Hope there are a some ppl from this thread still around to help me out.

thanks guys
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