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  • #161
  • Jan 25, 2009 7:17pm Jan 25, 2009 7:17pm
Quoting Mister ED
Hi Mitch

I have been looking at the thread and as usual things develop and change over time. What are the current indicators that you are using?

Mister ED
The basics for this system haven't changes:
HMA Modified
RSI Custom
Goodminer2

At least they haven't changes for me!
  • #162
  • Jan 25, 2009 7:22pm Jan 25, 2009 7:22pm
Thanks for the quick reply. I guess the only way to really test things as regards the potential of the indictor repainting and altering things is to see how it works in forward testing with the indicators as they are.

I will try to give my results when I have had a reasonable period over which to test things.

All the best and good luck with an interesting thread.

Mister ED
  • #163
  • Jan 25, 2009 7:26pm Jan 25, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting mprincehorn
Mitch,
Nice trading formula. I've been trading for a few years, but always looking for a new stratagy. I will watch (and maybe use this system this week) on a live mini account. My main question is ... now (Sunday 01:00 GMT) the pound and euro have had a few days of downward spikes and doji's... are you tempted to go long eventhough the traffic light system still shows downward pressure ??
Thanks, mike
I try not to second guess the signals, if it says sell, I sell!

I try not to worry about one specific pair or another, I'm trading a basket of pairs and the net effect is what I'm concern with. So in the beginning I take the trades as they are given, then re-adjust as the week goes along (but still based upon what the system is telling me).
  • #164
  • Jan 25, 2009 7:31pm Jan 25, 2009 7:31pm
Quoting Mister ED
Thanks for the quick reply. I guess the only way to really test things as regards the potential of the indictor repainting and altering things is to see how it works in forward testing with the indicators as they are.

I will try to give my results when I have had a reasonable period over which to test things.

All the best and good luck with an interesting thread.

Mister ED
Mister Ed,

Good luck this week, I will be making my trades in just a little bit. I look forward to seeing how you do.

Mitch
  • #165
  • Jan 25, 2009 7:40pm Jan 25, 2009 7:40pm
Quoting mitchp
I try not to second guess the signals, if it says sell, I sell!

I try not to worry about one specific pair or another, I'm trading a basket of pairs and the net effect is what I'm concern with. So in the beginning I take the trades as they are given, then re-adjust as the week goes along (but still based upon what the system is telling me).
Thanks Mitch for the quick reply... plan your trade and trade you plan. Good luck and thanks again for this thread.
  • #166
  • Jan 25, 2009 7:47pm Jan 25, 2009 7:47pm
Ok,

Here are my trades for now. I actually have a couple other pairs I'm interest in but the spreads are way too big right now. I will monitor them and hope they go down: GBPCHF, EURCAD.

If you can't see the attached, let me know and I will type them out.

Good luck to all of us
Mitch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #167
  • Jan 25, 2009 8:00pm Jan 25, 2009 8:00pm
On your EUR/GBP trade, are you using a SL? if so where are you setting it. Am looking forward to following your thread.
  • #168
  • Jan 25, 2009 8:12pm Jan 25, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting chump037
On your EUR/GBP trade, are you using a SL? if so where are you setting it. Am looking forward to following your thread.
At this point in my trading, I do not use SL. Risky, yes, but it's worked for me - so you need to do what is best for you. Dont' misunderstand me, I know deep down I should have some protection built into my trades. I just haven't figured out what that should be. And like I said, so far it hasn't hurt me.
  • #169
  • Jan 25, 2009 8:17pm Jan 25, 2009 8:17pm
Thanks for your reply. It is certain that someone following your thread will provide some input on this issue.
  • #170
  • Jan 25, 2009 8:42pm Jan 25, 2009 8:42pm
Mitch,
Could you explain what rules you use when you adjust your trades, 1 - when they are going against you, and 2 - when they are going in you favor ?
Thanks
  • #171
  • Jan 25, 2009 8:49pm Jan 25, 2009 8:49pm
Currently my trades have all gone against me, but this is the norm for me. Sunday nights I experience my largest draw-down, but by Monday morning I'm usually in positive territory. I'm still waiting for the spreads on those two pairs to get under control and then I'll be set for the night.

I have cut back on the number of trades so I could enter with additional lots. The plans is when those trade are in good pipage, I will close one lot, add a break even SL and let those trade fly. See I am thinking about SL, just got to figure out what is right for me.

Mitch
  • #172
  • Jan 25, 2009 9:13pm Jan 25, 2009 9:13pm
Hi Guys I know Mitchp went in which is right that the traffic lights Shows the signals, but not to get in right away yet, I am waiting when the Hour time frame lines up with the daily and also looking at the 15min. because there is retracements still. I posted this in Post #149 Thanks Just To Help
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #173
  • Edited 10:15pm Jan 25, 2009 9:31pm | Edited 10:15pm
Also keep an eye on news it can turn the trend. Positive news from Obama
on push fast to get economy going quicker means Eur/Usd may go up.
When bad U.S news Breaks U.S dollar gets stronger. WHY? because when things get better like Positive News. U.S. is the first to get better.
Always have www.bloomberg.com Go to Home Page, then Breaking News, this will help to give you idea of whats going. Hope this helps a little.
Dailies can be retracing or there can be trend Reversal because of Obama trying to do things quicker which means
positive Keep an Eye!
Here is what i Mean
Obama aide won't rule out more money for bailouts

Fed focus turns to credit easing at policy meeting

New York City to Get $3.4 Billion U.S. Stimulus, Schumer Said

This is Positive News for U.S Which Means Trend Change

If you look at the One hour Time Frame EUR/USD the News reacted to this. Now we will see what the dailies do.

Here is Negative News for example
Euro, Pound Fall on Speculation Economic Woes Will Be Prolonged
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #174
  • Edited 10:45pm Jan 25, 2009 10:38pm | Edited 10:45pm
Quoting mitchp
Currently my trades have all gone against me, but this is the norm for me. Sunday nights I experience my largest draw-down, but by Monday morning I'm usually in positive territory. I'm still waiting for the spreads on those two pairs to get under control and then I'll be set for the night.

I have cut back on the number of trades so I could enter with additional lots. The plans is when those trade are in good pipage, I will close one lot, add a break even SL and let those trade fly. See I am thinking about SL, just got to figure out what is right...
Hi Mitch

Since a certain amount of retracement seems to be the norm after daily candle open, have you considered using a retracement limit order to place your trades. Although I trade individual pairs instead of a basket, I often set limit orders instead of market orders. The trade would be activated after it retraced X number of pips. You could use a set number of pips depending on the volatility of the pair. I often use 23% of the body of the previous candle and enter at candle close ( I usually don't trade on Sunday night). The trade will be activated about 90% of the time. You would reduce your risk and drawdown and hit your target quicker.

A number of traders that use Paulus' EOD system use different variations of limit orders. It makes the risk/reward ratio more favorable. The only drawback is that a certain % of trades will not be activated because price did not retrace sufficiently.

Even if you used 15-20 pips of retracement per pair and you were trading a basket of 8-10 pairs, it would reduce your drawdown significantly.
  • #175
  • Edited Jan 26, 2009 12:41am Jan 25, 2009 10:43pm | Edited Jan 26, 2009 12:41am
Quoting paradoxical
Jnita, part of your post said
"One observation that struck me was the close of a bar – when it closed below the HMA signaled
a change in direction for short, and when a bar closed above the HMA it signaled long."
I manually back checked the EUR/USD, and didn't find this to be the case. I found no pattern. If there was that sort of pattern, of even whe3re it was the case 60-80% of the time, that would be a great find as it would be a definite signal to change direction. Am I looking at the same thing?
Thanks for warning.

I tested on gbpusd and it was just an observation for the last 3 months.
Unfortunately forex is like any other job, forex just has more homework.

I will still try to simulate this aspect to see if it carries any weight.

Edit: I had another look, and the close above/below the HMA was significant if the open was below the HMA and close above the HMA (up bar) it more than likely signaled a long entry. and visa versa
  • #176
  • Jan 25, 2009 10:44pm Jan 25, 2009 10:44pm
Quoting chazbo 3071
Hi Mitch

Since a certain amount of retracement seems to be the norm after daily candle open, have you considered using a retracement limit order to place your trades. Although I trade individual pairs instead of a basket, I often set limit orders instead of market orders. The trade would be activated after it retraced X number of pips. You could use a set number of pips depending on the volatility of the pair. I often use 23% of the body of the previous candle and enter at candle close ( I usually don't trade on Sunday night). The trade will be...
The Rule for Daily Trading would be not to trade on Sunday, because of low volatility.
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #177
  • Edited 11:49pm Jan 25, 2009 10:50pm | Edited 11:49pm
Quoting mitchp
Thanks for the analysis, it sort of confirms what I've suspected about Goldmine (that it repaints more than I thought). But even though it repaints, I don't really think it has hurt me, maybe just kept me out of a trade longer. I think this is because I don't trade on the start of the new daily (that's 4pm for me), I usually get to the charts between 6-8pm CST. By that time the new bar has had time to settle into a direction. I think it's the same for HMA, I'm giving it time to establish itself before I take a trade. I have seen it change on me,...
Sorry, if anyone missunderstood me .... I am not here to change any of the rules or indicators. It was only an observation.

My trades were done on the open and close of everyday. I did not close any trades until the close of the day. Some trades went over +1000, at least 3 went over +600 ... but because I waited for the close of a bar (change of a signal at close of bar), a lot of pips were given back.

Edit:Hope this was more helpful and clear.
  • #178
  • Jan 25, 2009 11:03pm Jan 25, 2009 11:03pm
Asian Stocks Rise as Shippers Advance on Fees; Contractors Drop
Together with Obama Positive News

Could Mean why eur/usd is heading up?
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #179
  • Jan 25, 2009 11:26pm Jan 25, 2009 11:26pm
Hi, Mitch. Thanks for posting your trades.

Being more conservative, I have only entered two trades: USDCAD (sell) and EURAUD (sell). Some of the trends of the other pairs look a bit tired, so I figured might be best to wait for confirmation or a new signal.

Interesting that you entered a sell on EURUSD. On my broker's charts (IBFX), the HMA indicator has turned green.

Looking forward to seeing how all this plays out. Good luck this week!

Scott

Quoting mitchp
Ok,

Here are my trades for now. I actually have a couple other pairs I'm interest in but the spreads are way too big right now. I will monitor them and hope they go down: GBPCHF, EURCAD.

If you can't see the attached, let me know and I will type them out.

Good luck to all of us
Mitch
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #180
  • Jan 25, 2009 11:47pm Jan 25, 2009 11:47pm
Update -- now the HMA on EURUSD is back to red again. LOL. I guess I just experienced the HMA's repainting in action!

Scott

Quoting thehenryfam
Hi, Mitch. Thanks for posting your trades.

Being more conservative, I have only entered two trades: USDCAD (sell) and EURAUD (sell). Some of the trends of the other pairs look a bit tired, so I figured might be best to wait for confirmation or a new signal.

Interesting that you entered a sell on EURUSD. On my broker's charts (IBFX), the HMA indicator has turned green.

Looking forward to seeing how all this plays out. Good luck this week!

Scott
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
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