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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #155,501
  • Jan 25, 2009 11:10am Jan 25, 2009 11:10am
good and clear explanations
thank you Q
  • #155,502
  • Edited 11:40am Jan 25, 2009 11:18am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting oleevier
good and clear explanations
thank you Q
one last thing and I'll get off my soapbox. . .

take a look at the stoch on 1hr chart at 123.80 area where it last broke to the new low. . . it took 400 pips down for it to get into OS area. . .

Now look at the stoch @ 122.70 area, if the bearish divergence play out we could see price drop at least 400 pips lower (min) before the OB situation is worked out @ 118.48 intraday S3 support down to 117 area which is S3 support on the daily. . .

If price gets safely above 123 it's a whole new ball game - a glimpse of intraday pivot and daily pivot can be viewed here. . .
This will give u a better ideal of what senerios I'm watching. . .

http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603215764/

These are pretty reliable if you understand and know how to use them. Can help u get good entry on tops and bottoms and anywhere in between. . . Been using them for years - any older trader on this forum like MM, Orion, Piter, Vinesh and others can tell u I live by them.
But it's just one of many tools I have in my tool box when trading. . . monitor it for a day and I'll be you get better entry and exits in no time. It update but u have to refesh your screen to see the latest. . . read it and you'll get the gist of it. . . "GOLDEN"

If you look at your chart and correlate it back to the pivots you'll notice why price is held up and where it could go. . . draw out the senarios both up or down and it will give a better decision to make. . .

Right now price is just below daily pivot - if above it we have 125 area as R1 but intraday but intraday has minor resistance at 124 and 125 area. . . Take a looky. . . LOL!

if price is rejected by the DP we have 121 area then 119 then 117. . . Intraday has minor support at 121.70, 120.60 119.50 and 118.48 very easy to understand. . .

Enjoy. . .

Just another senario to watch. . .
  • #155,503
  • Jan 25, 2009 11:35am Jan 25, 2009 11:35am
Hello dear Quecee5

Plese tell me what kind of indicator can i use to see how poverfull is move down or up, when is that move exhousted and when it one move ready to reverse.

I am using ..not using still on real money but demo, combineing something between Rgott05 and Piters and Aus on my Alpari demo Meta trader ...

For now everything is clear to me ..Piters for scalping Aus for trend choosing and sometimes Rgott05s for same staff..After a while i will stay on one only but i am alwayes confused about that i asked you on the begining.

Is it RSI14?

Is there is something better?

Best regards
Predrag
Work smart not hard
  • #155,504
  • Jan 25, 2009 11:40am Jan 25, 2009 11:40am
quecee5 ,
nice new view
thx again.
i'll be watching carefully what u wrote in last posts
  • #155,505
  • Edited 12:08pm Jan 25, 2009 11:52am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting sony
Hello dear Quecee

Plese tell me what kind of indicator can i use to see how poverfull is move down or up, when is that move exhousted and when it one move ready to reverse.

I am using ..not using still on real money but demo, combineing something between Rgott05 and Piters and Aus on my Alpari demo Meta trader ...

For now everything is clear to me ..Piters for scalping Aus for trend choosing and sometimes Rgott05s for same staff..After a while i will stay on one only but i am alwayes confused about that i asked you on the begining.

Is it...
stoch and macd are good indicators when used with other tools in the toolbox like trend lines and pivots / S&R. . .

but here's the thing - depending on what type of trader you are, i.e. daytrader, scalper, etc will dictate how you approach it. . .

Me I monitor all time frames mainly 1hr, 4hr and daily. . . I use 15min chart for entry after monitoring HTF's. . .

The best senario for me is when stoch. and macd on 1hr, 4hr and daily are lined up either way meaning all are showing bearish or all are showing bullish.

anything else is deemed mixed for me. . . not to say you can make pips that way but it's a bit risky for my trading style. . .

Typically when all are line up you get huge moves between 400-500 pips minimal. Also when all are lined up the rule of thumb is you are trading with the overall trend. . .

Pivots along with stoch/macd and other tools can give very good clues where price is headed and if a top or bottom is nearing. But you have to be flexible because depending on price momentum price can overshoot these levels a bit and also come back and retest it before resuming the overall trend.

Its always good to not over leverage and be cognizant of levels so you don't panic when price reverses. Also, you can set good stops based on these levels but that's where PA (price action) comes into play. . . I typically set stops above/below the close of the previous candle if price has close below or above it. . .

Also, keeping track of former support and resistance is a good idea because they will come into play when price tries to reverse. . . Knowing where these levels are helps you to understand where price can reverse before meeting support or resistance - if breached you know that the trend may have changed short-term. . .

trading is 75% emotional/psychological and 25% technical. . . try not to rely on indicators so much because most are lagging behind the price but more so use where price has been stopped and reverse previously as a gage as well. . . also one has to gage the market sentiments/conditions, thats where emotions come into play and panic selling or price rallies takes place. . .

The market is built on emotion - that's why some people ask themselves how can price go up when the data says thing are going to hell in a hand basket - well it's because the market looks at future potential and typically when price goes either way it has already been priced in and the average joe is late on the move. . .

Sometimes I sell into rallies and buy into selling but it take quite a long time to develop this skill. . .

Hope this helps. . .
  • #155,506
  • Jan 25, 2009 11:56am Jan 25, 2009 11:56am
Quoting quecee5
stoch and macd are good indicators when used wth other tools like trend lines and pivots / S&R. . .

but here's the thing - depending on what type of trader you are, i.e. daytrader, scalper, etc will dictate how you approach it. . .

Me I monitor all time frame mainly 1hr, 4hr and daily. . . I use 15min chart for entry after monitoring HTF's. . .

The best senario for me is when stoch. and macd on 1hr, 4hr and daily are lined up either way meaning all are showing bearish or all are showing bullish.

anything else is deemed mixed for me. . ....


Yes it does..Thank you very much
Work smart not hard
  • #155,507
  • Jan 25, 2009 12:03pm Jan 25, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting sony
Hello dear Quecee5

Plese tell me what kind of indicator can i use to see how poverfull is move down or up, when is that move exhousted and when it one move ready to reverse.

I am using ..not using still on real money but demo, combineing something between Rgott05 and Piters and Aus on my Alpari demo Meta trader ...

For now everything is clear to me ..Piters for scalping Aus for trend choosing and sometimes Rgott05s for same staff..After a while i will stay on one only but i am alwayes confused about that i asked you on the begining.

Is it...

yes best of all is volume ... on higher time frame it can tell you when a move might be exhausted ., also simple candle patterns , like pin bars , engulfing and inside bars may tell you when a move is reversing

also if in a trade just trail your stop up I use 1.5 x atr on all time frames , that way you just get stopped out when a move is exhausted , hopefully with green pips in bank.

remember NO trader , no matter what is said on any forum (remember most forums are full of bs and demo traders) catches tops and bottoms all the time .

The idea of forex is to be consistent , let the losers go quickly and let the winners run . Using this simple thing and letting winners run 150 pips and letting losers go -75 pips (say you are trading 30 min charts) , you only have to be right 50% of the time to make money at the end of the year
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #155,508
  • Jan 25, 2009 12:09pm Jan 25, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yes best of all is volume ... on higher time frame it can tell you when a move might be exhausted ., also simple candle patterns , like in bars , engulfing ans inside bars may tell you when a move is reversing

also if in a trade just trail your stop up I use 1.5 x atr on all time frames , that way you just get stopped out when a move is exhausted , hopefully with green pips in bank.

remember NO trader...
wanted to attach this chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: snapshot-143.png Size: 231 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #155,509
  • Jan 25, 2009 12:19pm Jan 25, 2009 12:19pm
anybody use MTPREDCTOR ?
I have problem with data source , cant import to that software .

Anybody meet same problem ?
  • #155,510
  • Jan 25, 2009 12:20pm Jan 25, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting malcolmb14
wanted to attach this chart

Attachment

Thanks Malcomb14 .. i will study it tonite a bit
Work smart not hard
  • #155,511
  • Jan 25, 2009 12:33pm Jan 25, 2009 12:33pm
Quecee, Malcolmb, Godfrey, Dr G, Piters et al,

Thank you so very much from a newbie. Your insight and scenarios have been enlightening. After lurking (as Dr G would say) for so long on this thread and studying day/night, I finally had a light bulb moment. Ok, so it was quick moment but needless to say, a moment. The pieces to the puzzle are starting to fall into place and I can see a fuzzy picture - only thanks to you all! so much gratitude!
  • #155,512
  • Edited 1:14pm Jan 25, 2009 12:33pm | Edited 1:14pm
here is a simple chart that demostrates how a trader can get good entry if they couple this with PA, meaning pay attention what the market is telling u.

One can see stoch is in the OB area then dips below support or resistance to retest it before resuming the overall trend. It also tells u that a reversal may be nearing. . . Couple this with major S&R, trend lines and other tools as I have outlined in other post and it is possible to get good entry near or ar'd the top. . .

Now, like i've stated before things have to be lined up right when making this decision. . . You also have to have the margin to accomodate the trade you are considering taking. . .

Most successful traders are not interested in managing how much they can profit - they manage how much they are willing to lose on the trade if it doesn't go their way. . .

Forex is about "risk" if you can manage losses - risk verus reward then the profits will come. . .

example; based on a trade I "believe" based on my chart tha price is nearing a top or bottom

question: how much am I willing to risk that either I'm wrong or correct based on my assessment?

Answer, major support and resistance has been rejected and a retest has failed. . . candle stick has failed below or above the previous 4hr or day close. . . This tells me that bulls are bears want to take price lower or higher, the retest tells me that down or upmove is forthcoming but not without attempts to breached support or resistance. . .

How much am I willing to lose if im right or wrong? What is my potential reward versus risk?

I may be willing to risk a 50 pip lose to gain a 500 pip gain. . . That's a decision that one has to make when trading. . .

Let the data speak and don't chase the market let it come to you based on sound decisions not anyone elses trade call. . .

trade your own charts with your style of trading because at the end of the day you ultimately have to deal with your win or loses. . .

my two cents. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr chart - gj6.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #155,513
  • Jan 25, 2009 12:34pm Jan 25, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting malcolmb14

also if in a trade just trail your stop up I use 1.5 x atr on all time frames , that way you just get stopped out when a move is exhausted , hopefully with green pips in bank.
Hi Malcolmb, I have atr but am confused about how to use it to trail. What do you mean 1.5 x atr? Can you give an example?

Thanks, Mike.
  • #155,514
  • Jan 25, 2009 12:43pm Jan 25, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting quecee5
trading is 75% emotional/psychological and 25% technical

Will say its as much 80% + emotional/psychological
  • #155,515
  • Jan 25, 2009 1:05pm Jan 25, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting quecee5
here is a simple chart that demostrates how a trader can get good entry if they couple this with PA, meaning pay attention what the market is telling u.

One can see stoch is in the OB area then dips below support or resistance to retest it before resuming the overall trend. It also tells u that a reversal may be nearing. . . Couple this with major S&R, trend lines and other tools as I have outlined in other post and it is possible to get good entry near or ar'd the top. . .

Now, like i've stated before things have to be lined up right when making...

nice posting .. newbies ... look at this .. .rarely does a resistance level break without being retested
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #155,516
  • Jan 25, 2009 1:09pm Jan 25, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting MykeFX
Hi Malcolmb, I have atr but am confused about how to use it to trail. What do you mean 1.5 x atr? Can you give an example?

Thanks, Mike.

right now atr(21) is about 16 on the 5 min chart , if you enter a trade , assuming you entered it at the right point , your stop would be 24.
If trading a 1 hour chart atr is 88 , in order to avoid being whipsawed out and assuming you enter at the right spot stop would be 88*1.5=132 pips

you can move stop up as the trade progresses Chandalier stops are based on this kind of system

http://www.tradejuice.com/system-tra...delier-clb.htm
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #155,517
  • Jan 25, 2009 1:25pm Jan 25, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting malcolmb14
nice posting .. newbies ... look at this .. .rarely does a resistance level break without being retested
thxs bro!
  • #155,518
  • Jan 25, 2009 1:25pm Jan 25, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting quecee5
stoch and macd are good indicators when used with other tools in the toolbox like trend lines and pivots / S&R. . .

Also, keeping track of former support and resistance is a good idea because they will come into play when price tries to reverse. . . Knowing where these levels are helps you to understand where price can reverse before meeting support or resistance - if breached you know that the trend may have changed short-term. . .

Hope this helps. . .
I think just about everyone on this thread is familiar with Tom Demark, and using his methodology and indicators for drawing trendlines. However, one of the most powerful trendline and price support drawing tools I've used is based of the zig zag indicator.

This indicator attached is invaluable in determining previous support / resistance levels and trendlines. The trendline possibilities are virtually limitless, so the challenge to anyone who uses this indicator is to strike a balance , so that your chart doesn't look line a spiderweb, yet shows important support levels.
So feel free to play around the settings till you find a suitable one.

Below are two example of a chart with the indicator loaded on. All support and trendlines are drawn automatically. The first is with a simple setting, the second more complex.

Remember trendlines and supports are not necessarily written in stone, a major breach will result in a new trendline being drawn. You'll need the zig zag to use the trendline / support lines indicator.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpus-15.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpus-complex.gif Size: 16 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 trendline_mikko_autosr.mq4   4 KB | 372 downloads
File Type: mq4 ZigZag.mq4   6 KB | 289 downloads
  • #155,519
  • Jan 25, 2009 1:26pm Jan 25, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting malcolmb14
right now atr(21) is about 16 on the 5 min chart , if you enter a trade , assuming you entered it at the right point , your stop would be 24.
If trading a 1 hour chart atr is 88 , in order to avoid being whipsawed out and assuming you enter at the right spot stop would be 88*1.5=132 pips

you can move stop up as the trade progresses Chandalier stops are based on this kind of system

http://www.tradejuice.com/system-tra...delier-clb.htm
i must have the wrong atr

i get a wave with value of like 0.156...

is there a diff atr indicator?
  • #155,520
  • Jan 25, 2009 1:33pm Jan 25, 2009 1:33pm
godfrey,

how do u overlay regular stoch over your stoch indicator?
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