Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Hi guys! I need your opinion for next week chart can this beast touch to 115.xx - 110.xx level ?

I'm still learning here with your all pro trader.. thanks

yep very possible - however it will happen from higher price. . .

See charts posted by Piter, myself, pkimnyc, etc. . .

Hi Quecee thanks for the info your chart and Piters looks great.. I'm still learning how to draw nice TL, Fibs like yours.. everyday a new lesson for me..

real time quotes

XE is not reliable, use this:

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm

I like such qoutes, keep it up good work
and make euro fall too

thanks arezab

lol .. yes i believe euro will fall too

it's already 1.2845 euro
nice, keep it down and will be rich by monday

Here's my short term view on cable, and to gbp/jpy, to the extent that it follows cable.

I find that gartley patterns are more reliable when plotted with a fib expansion and they hit either the 127.2 fib or the 161.8 fib. The gartley on the hour hit the 161.8 fib expansion and a clear bullish divergence was formed on the stochastic. It bounced upwards rather nicely.

The target for the gartley was either the "neckline" (my words) of the gartley or the next fib level, which is 127.2. The blue line is the hour 50 ema. Anywasy, so much for the history lesson, back to the future, lol.

Now, I see that the stochastics are overbought, approaching the 90 level. The indicator hasn't drawn it yet, so I've helped it out. I see a hidden bearish divergence brewing on the stochastic, its a bit early though to say definitely. But my bias is down.

However, if price in the higher timeframe closes above the trendline and the 127.2 fib then we should have a good up. We'll see how it plays out.

Godfrey,
Would you mind sharing your stoch indicator?

No problem, here you go

I also drag the regular stochastic over the indicator window to get the stoch lines as well as the histogram.

TY very much Godfrey!

Hi G

I also have bearish div rsx .

I have a feeling we may have one more stab at 120 zone before the leg up that Q mentions ...

we have on the 60 min
1) rsx hidden bearish div
2) stochastics hidden bearish div from Godfrey
3) volume divergence ( not often that price can keep rising on declining volume)
4) descending triangle still in play with the three divergences forming on the upper TL ( rsx , volume , stochastics)
5) Nikkie did end on lows Friday , may have a dead cat bounce BUT no volume spike on 60 min showing that there is no selling climax yet ... we may see a breach of the lows Sunday
6) FTSE 60 min did come off bottom on 60 min chart with a very strong reversal candle and did not pierce the upper TL . If this pattern holds we will see more to downside on FTSE Sunday

I see a little more down in both ftse and nikkei sunday , with gj testing 119 one more time , likely there will be a pivot form based on fib time lines and symmetry of moves at around 4 am PST Monday morning. I would really like to see a gap up Sunday as this is a good indication that the down move will happen , rarely does a gap up take off and more often then not it is a bull trap

Earnings season starts next week , do not let this scare you as liekly if earnings are bad , but not as bad as expected , the stock market will rally. There appears to be some accumulation at 823 on the s& P ...and this is the price level to watch next week. From a daily look at es ( s&p ) emini we may be forming a temp bottom in the market

yeah .. sometime you screw up and get an entry 1 pip off the top and not the exact top ...lol

NICE post .....

Great insights Q and Malcomb. Thanks. Definitely don't want to be fooled by the pigmen . . . I mean pros.

It should be interesting to see what the bulls got. My gut tells me they don't have much juice left, but we'll let the charts decide. The US treasury is going to be hitting the market up for cash soon and that's always bad for stocks. Thanks again.

Naw maybe 10-15 pips, 5 pips if I'm lucky. . . all comes with knowing where support and resistance levels are located on HTF,

place your pending trade with a buffer then you waaaaaaaaaaaaaaait forrrrrrrrrrrrr it, waaaaaaaaaaaaait forrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr it............... Then wham!

It gets better each time you do it. . .

Interesting reading. . .

The drop in the GBP/USD this week has been nothing short of astonishing. The pair erased more than 1000 points off its price with streling depreciating by more than 6% against the dollar. Although cable has been in decline since the turbulent markets of last fall, this latest freefall carries a whiff of true panic about it as markets fear that that UK government spending schemes to rescue the country’s ailing banking sector will put unsustainable stress on the Treasury.

The run on the pound was triggered by Prime Minister Brown’s latest proposal to spend an additional 50 billion GBP to insure toxic assets of the banks, as well as by the RBS revelation of the largest loss in UK corporate history. Those two events have greatly damaged the markets confidence in UK financial system, sending sterling plummeting as traders question the UK government’s ability to successfully float so much fresh public debt as 2009 unfolds.

The collapse of global capital markets turned the UK economy from boom to a bust in a blink of an eye. Despite inflation levels that remain above 3% the BoE has lowered rates from 5.25% to 1.5% in less than 12 months as UK unemployment rolls swelled to 6.1% and UK finance sector reeled from record losses on credit instruments. Looking forward, there is little hope on the economic horizon. The unbalanced situation of the UK economy persists and should global equities remain in a protracted bear market, the long term damage is likely to be severe.

The BoE policy is relying on the assumption that lower currency values will address some of those imbalances, but so far that thesis has failed as the country’s Trade deficit continues to swell. UK may now face a true nightmare as the economy continues to contract, but inflation levels rise due to the weakness of the currency and the UK government’s inability to raise new capital at reasonable interest rates. While the events of the past few days have certainly punched the pound in the solar plexus, the currency of another Anglo-Saxon economy just across the Atlantic has remained strong and steady. Nevertheless, while the greenback may appear to be a rock of stability amidst the chaos of the currency markets, the pound saga may serve as a cautionary tale for greenback longs.

The very same reasons that felled sterling this week, may also bring down the dollar. Much like the UK economy, the US economy has relied on the financial sector for the majority of its recent economic growth. At its height the US financial sector represented more than 20% of the S&P but the double collapse of US real estate and equity markets have wiped $10 Trillion off household net worth bringing consumer spending to a standstill. With the consumer representing 70% of the US economy this sharp contraction in demand brought all economic growth to a virtual halt.

Up to now the dollar has ignored this negative economic backdrop as global capital flows have continued to pour into the safety of US Treasuries, driving the yield on four week T-bills to practically zero. Yet the critical question facing the currency market in 2009 is how long will global investors give US a free ride on their money?

One of the primary suppliers of capital to the US is China and recent capital inflow data indicates that the Chinese have shifted the vast majority of their investment portfolio away from Agency bonds (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) towards Treasury securities. In other words US now finds itself in a precarious position where a significant portion of its debt resides in short term obligations subject to rollover risk. Should the Chinese lose faith in the “full faith and credit” of the United States the downside pressure on the dollar could be enormous as capital flight will surely ensue.

To aggravate the situation further, the current stimulus plans of the Obama administration are likely to add an additional $1 Trillion of spending at a time when tax revenues are falling off a cliff. The dangerous combination of record new spending and near total reliance on foreign capital to finance such spending creates the primary risk to the dollar this year. While, the chance of an immediate global run on the greenback appears to be relatively small, since the unit continues to serve as the reserve currency to the world offering the best choice amongst many unpleasant alternatives, currency traders should not be complacent. The vicious run on the pound stands as a stark reminder of how quickly sentiment can change in the FX market. With so much debt outstanding and so much more to be issued, the dollar could indeed become the next “pound” in the currency market and traders should prepare accordingly.

http://www.bktraderfx.com/site/fx-we...-to-the-ground

nice nice

thanks Q, Piper, Malcolmb, G and everyone. this is sweet

i'm still stuck on the train. had to go out and do some IT work. lol

So what happen if they try to break 4hr gann without a password and visa? they get killed like last week when they go from132 to 135?