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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #155,421
  • Jan 23, 2009 3:55pm Jan 23, 2009 3:55pm
Quoting Piters
lool, I am slow motion now.

take them all .. mate
I know - I should be doing something constructive. . .

naw, have a good weekend bro - I'm on cruise control now
and plan to have a relaxing weekend. . .

See ya on Sunday. . .
  • #155,422
  • Jan 23, 2009 3:56pm Jan 23, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting quecee5
I know - I should be doing something constructive. . .

naw, have a good weekend bro - I'm on cruise control now
and plan to have a relaxing weekend. . .

See ya on Sunday. . .
c''ya bro.. thanks for your help !
  • #155,423
  • Jan 23, 2009 4:13pm Jan 23, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting quecee5
Piter,

I agree with your analysis as I've stated the DP will be challenged @ 123.30 area. . . Not sure if it will happen today maybe next week. . .

My short was a short-term scalp - I'm going into the weekend flat and will study the charts more over the weekend. . .
hey Q, can you post your study when you are done? would like to see what you see

thanks
  • #155,424
  • Jan 23, 2009 4:13pm Jan 23, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting quecee5
UJ has been rejected from 89 several times today but what a come back for GU off the low. . .
XE shows close above 89, after hours lol.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #155,425
  • Jan 23, 2009 4:14pm Jan 23, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting DutchTrader
XE shows close above 89, after hours lol.
good
  • #155,426
  • Jan 23, 2009 4:33pm Jan 23, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Piters

  1. exit: 122.64
  2. banked [42 pips]

Have a nice weekend guys... c''ya all next week

Get some rest Piters ! Have a good weekend!!
  • #155,427
  • Edited 8:33pm Jan 23, 2009 7:59pm | Edited 8:33pm
price still under 4hr gann.
bearish hd spotted on 1 hr chart.
but, seems like we are forming a broadening triangle, which is a good sign of reversal. if we do reverse next week, it might be limited to 126.5 area.

if the upper tl (yellow) on daily chart gets respected then this may be the first sign of reversal. but, price may head down to 112.00-98.00 area first before it actually reverses.

this is just a thought.
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  • #155,428
  • Jan 23, 2009 8:50pm Jan 23, 2009 8:50pm
Quoting pkimnyc
price still under 4hr gann.
bearish hd spotted on 1 hr chart.
but, seems like we are forming a broadening triangle, which is a good sign of reversal. if we do reverse next week, it might be limited to 126.5 area.

if the upper tl (yellow) on daily chart gets respected then this may be the first sign of reversal. but, price may head down to 112.00-98.00 area first before it actually reverses.

this is just a thought.

Nice look pkimnyc always appreciated...have a good weekend everyone next the struggle for little green ones starts all over
  • #155,429
  • Jan 23, 2009 9:05pm Jan 23, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting NwFXenthsist
Nice look pkimnyc always appreciated...have a good weekend everyone next the struggle for little green ones starts all over
thanks bro. have a great weekend.
  • #155,430
  • Jan 23, 2009 9:08pm Jan 23, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting pkimnyc
thanks bro. have a great weekend.

Have a nice weekend bro...see you next week.
  • #155,431
  • Jan 23, 2009 9:12pm Jan 23, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting PandoraBox
Have a nice weekend bro...see you next week.
you too my friend.
  • #155,432
  • Jan 23, 2009 10:53pm Jan 23, 2009 10:53pm
Quoting mirex
hey Q, can you post your study when you are done? would like to see what you see

thanks
okay
  • #155,433
  • Edited 2:00am Jan 24, 2009 1:33am | Edited 2:00am
I haven't posted a chart in a while so I'm sure some noob are wondering why I post the remarks on this thread as I do and may think I'm full of BS.

Well the short of it is I am a swing trader so I look for set-ups for short-term/medium-term trades. My trades may run for 1-3 days after entry sometimes weeks if I'm lucky.

I like trading this way because it gives me more leisure time and less time I have to spend starring at the c'mputer - unless I make a stupid trade which happens =

Anyway enough of the dribble - Here is my working chart or plan for the next several days starting Sunday. . .

Very feasible set-up which is explained below:

1) Fall started from 141.52 has developed into 5 waves it appears.

wave 1 - 141.52 to 128.75 = 1,300 pips
wave 2 - 128.75 to 135.82 = 700 pip
wave 3 - 135.82 to 118.75 = 1,600 pips
wave 4 - 118.75 should go to 55 ema or 50% of last fall - est 850-100 pips

  1. (135.82-118.75)*50% + 118.75 = 127.29

Note: 50% retrace from wave 3 fall is 127.29 which also where the 55 ema happens to sit currently. So we should expect price go there if we get a 4hr close above the gann hi/lo which I call the buy zone (123.11 area).

Also note worthy is the decsending trend line off of 141.52 and 135.82 tops. This tells me there is a possibility that price could spike up to this zone which should be capped price at 129.130 area. . . I just mention this if you are scaling in shorts at the 55 ema be prepared of the upper ceiling and possible spikes up. . .

Now, if price does reach these areas and does not breach either the 55 ema or decsending trend line this could be a good short set-up opportunity.

The new low at 118.75 is telling us that price is headed even lower which should be wave 5 of 5. Based on my chart wave 5 should equal at least wave 3 (maybe slighly shorter).

Therefore; if price reaches let say the 55 ema @ 127.40 zone wave 5 would be as follows:

  1. wave 5 = 127.40 - 16 (which is 1600 pips) = 111 zone

Fibs suggest 112.30 if you look at 135.82-118.75 ext. Nevertheless it gives you a good target zone.

Lastly - wave 4 should be in 3 wave and wave 5 down should be in 5 waves. . . The reason I mention this wave 4 could reach 125.38 and fall to 123.11 support zone then back up to 55 ema area. . . Wave 5, if u get in close to the top just set SL and wait for a few days for the fall - I only mentino this just in case you want to buil shorts on the want down which I typically do. Just giving u an idea of how trade when Malcom teases me regarding my entries. But what he doesn't tell u is typically I'm already in close to the top as possible - Just kidding Malcom. . .

That's my analysis; of course all this is negated if price is rejected by the 4hr gann hi/lo!

If this set-up materialize like I think it will I will refer back to it often when discussing price next week. . .

Simple chart posted below. . .

Feedback welcome - regards

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #155,434
  • Edited 2:03am Jan 24, 2009 1:51am | Edited 2:03am
Quoting quecee5
I haven't posted a chart in a while so I'm sure some noob are wondering why I post the remarks on this thread as I do and may think I'm full of BS.

Well the short of it is I am a swing trader so I look for set-ups for short-term/medium-term trades. My trades may run for 1-3 days after entry sometimes weeks if I'm lucky.

I like trading this way because it gives me more leisure time and less time I have to spend starring at the c'mputer - unless I make a stupid trade which happens =

Anyway enough of the dribble - [b]Here...
I have the same thoughts with one more exception... What if its forming an inverted Head $ Shoulder.. then we can see price going back to 141xx... hence forming a double top.. Then it will be nice to have a nice big drop.. i think market has to take price higher to drop again and take out the last loww... isn't this what happens all the time.. Pros sell in strenght and viceversa...??? what do you think?/ from 127xx to 141xx is about 1400pips...??? If it is really a Head & shoulder then we may see 150xxx levels.. can call this a retracement( there has not been one in last 6-7 months)
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #155,435
  • Jan 24, 2009 2:07am Jan 24, 2009 2:07am
Quoting Raza
I have the same thoughts with one more exception... What if its forming an inverted Head $ Shoulder.. then we can see price going back to 141xx... hence forming a double top.. Then it will be nice to have a nice big drop.. i think market has to take price higher to drop again and take out the last loww... isn't this what happens all the time.. Pros sell in strenght and viceversa...??? what do you think?/ from 127xx to 141xx is about 1400pips...??? If it is really a Head & shoulder then we may see 150xxx levels.. can call this a retracement( there...

Yep, can happend. I can say What I know about H/S/
Majority of traders are using H/S only as a reversal pattern, but H/S aslo can be used as a very powerfull continuation pattern.

Everytime, when price is rejected from the NL, we see a continuation PA. So, NL is decision point.. Just my 0,2c
  • #155,436
  • Jan 24, 2009 2:10am Jan 24, 2009 2:10am
Quoting Raza
I have the same thoughts with one more exception... What if its forming an inverted Head $ Shoulder.. then we can see price going back to 141xx... hence forming a double top.. Then it will be nice to have a nice big drop.. i think market has to take price higher to drop again and take out the last loww... isn't this what happens all the time.. Pros sell in strenght and viceversa...??? what do you think?/ from 127xx to 141xx is about 1400pips...??? If it is really a Head & shoulder then we may see 150xxx levels.. can call a retracement( there has...
well the last low I see on the chart if from wave 1 which is located at 128.73. This also correlates to the decsending trend line or just slightly higher. . . price should be capped there if price is to turn ar'd for a new low.

This area was support for that wave but was broken on the way down for the wave 3 down move. . . however it could happen but that decsending trend line hasn't been breach so far since Jan 7th 2009. . . if its breached that would imply a reversal. I would look for a 4hr close above 55 ema as a gage for that with further confirmation of the broken trend line. Then price should re-test support above the broken trend line for continuation to 141. . .right shoulder support persae. . .

Just my thoughts. . .

see circle on the chart below. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr chart - gj2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #155,437
  • Jan 24, 2009 2:14am Jan 24, 2009 2:14am
Quoting quecee5
I haven't posted a chart in a while so I'm sure some noob are wondering why I post the remarks on this thread as I do and may think I'm full of BS.


Feedback welcome - regards

Q, nice one, as always.

I agree, that is our roadmap. The only thing here I am concern is the border (TL and 50/55 ema, including gann 4h). I am gonna laughing if "they" try to cross the border without the passport and VISA...
I mean over the weekend..

If that happend, then wow, we play new game. But All your roadmap structure is the same on my side... I also posted few posts ago, with my targets, and my FE target 3 ends exactly on 127.16

my post: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1232742171

Good job mate..
  • #155,438
  • Jan 24, 2009 2:17am Jan 24, 2009 2:17am
Quoting mirex
hey Q, can you post your study when you are done? would like to see what you see

thanks
Mirex, are you still in the train bro ? Icouldn find you to tell you that we arrived..
  • #155,439
  • Jan 24, 2009 2:28am Jan 24, 2009 2:28am
Quoting Raza
I have the same thoughts with one more exception... What if its forming an inverted Head $ Shoulder.. then we can see price going back to 141xx... hence forming a double top.. Then it will be nice to have a nice big drop.. i think market has to take price higher to drop again and take out the last loww... isn't this what happens all the time.. Pros sell in strenght and viceversa...??? what do you think?/ from 127xx to 141xx is about 1400pips...??? If it is really a Head & shoulder then we may see 150xxx levels.. can call this a retracement( there...
could happen this way to but again the decsending trend line would have to be descively breached and then a retest of 128.70 area support to be valid for a continuation to 141 - very good observation that's why I will be looking for failures at the 55 ema and the decending trend line before I make a short trade. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #155,440
  • Jan 24, 2009 2:36am Jan 24, 2009 2:36am
Quoting Piters
Q, nice one, as always.

I agree, that is our roadmap. The only thing here I am concern is the border (TL and 50/55 ema, including gann 4h). I am gonna laughing if "they" try to cross the border without the passport and VISA...
I mean over the weekend..

If that happend, then wow, we play new game. But All your roadmap structure is the same on my side... I also posted few posts ago, with my targets, and my FE target 3 ends exactly on 127.16

my post: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1232742171...
LMAO!

I'll be watching price over the weekend to see what next week has for us. . .
Again, the break to new lows tells me that further down side is forthcoming sooner rather than later. . .

if price gets above 128.70 area and test support there then yes it is a new game and those sneaky bastards have entered without a passport nor visa - then the game is on -
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