EUR/GBD and EUR/USD in my opinion

As I am unexperienced I would like to confirm my opinions.

- EUR/GBP is going up pretty fast so should hit a resistance point soon, so wait until it starts falling and then go short.

- EUR/USD is reaching his lowest points again so should also wait until it starts going up and join it by going long.

What do you think?
And if you do not agree please explain why.

Thanks :-)

GBD - The Great British Dollar? There was talk not so long ago about the UK adopting the USD. Crazy talk no doubt.

If a pair is going up fast why on earth are you looking to oppose it?
The market is talking to you, screaming in your ear and you're trying to argue with it. The market is clever than you, it knows exactly what it is doing so take a hint when it is giving you one. You want to stay with the trend, wait for a retracement or somewhere that your observations suggest consistently offers value - so a retracement back to support level would be one idea - and then look for a trigger. It won't always work, but the trend is your friend and if you're a noob you need all the friends you can get.

Trend.

Retracement.

Trigger.


Stick with those basic rules for a couple of years and then you can try and get cute on breakouts and earlier entries when you have aqcuired more experience.

to be honest I think that EUR USD still has a room to go down, the lowest point is around 1.24 mark. It seems to struggle to push through the low right now. But I still think it's in a down trend! but what do I know? I am a rookie too!

The reason why I do not agree is the trend has been ranging for a while now and the longer the it ranges the bigger the chance it will hit his resistance point. So it wouldn't be wise to jump in right?
I didn't say go short while it's ranging, but wait until it hits his resistance point, and then decide if I want to jump in or not.
I am looking for trades that could take days to complete.

But I won't be ignorant so I will trade a smaller stake based on the retracement points and just follow the trend. Maybe I was thinking too complicated or just trying to find a excuse for my fear to start a trade.

I opened a long trade in the retracement and the trend actually started growing again, but after it grown it dropped dramaticly, and I didn't feel confident enough anymore to continue with the trade.

Did I do anything wrong, or was it just bad luck?
Should I have waited longer because this is normal and the trend should go up again?

I probably just lack the confidence because I am not experienced enough. But if I did something wrong I really would like to know that

This was my trade:
http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/4...eenshotet9.png

I don't watch EURGBP but that looks a lot like a 1-2-3 bearish reversal. Price was in a strong uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows but now has made a lower high and a lower low. It does not mean the trend is over necessarily, flags and consolidation patterns look just like that too, but if you're a trend follower you don't want to be in a long trade there, as techincally the trend is no longer up on that chart.

One of the keys to trading successfully is to profit even when you're wrong. The trend did not continue as you may have theorised but if you'd got in the trade from the support level (trigger from '2' in 1-2-3 pattern) you should have at least got some covered before you got shaken out at the break of the '2' point which confirmed the bearish 1-2-3 and the technical end of the up-trend. Also, you may have noticed that the '3' point, which was the lower high (but this is not confirmed until the break of price level '2'), formed in a significant area where you will often see price pivot - on the inside pivot of the most recent wave. The '1' level was where sellers intially overwhelmed buyers before and those who had bought there wanted to ditch their positions as close to break even as possible and bears on the side-lines considered that to be a good value price for a sell limit order as price had pivoted there before. Take a look back on your charts and draw lines back from outside pivots to see how often they match up with previous inside pivots. When price had stalled in this area it may have given you a clue that price could fail to make a new high and the covering of some if not all of your profits would be a reasonable policy. Of course this is all very easy to say in hindsight when the chart has formed, but when price is at the cutting edge of the chart, studying price action should give you clues as to what it might do next. Ask yourself the question 'if price was to respond to this potential resistance (support) level, what would price action look like? How does this compare to what I am seeing now?

You're right, I should have stopped the trade earlier and I think when I was paying attention I would.

This would be a scary part for me as I see the trend going down and it might go down even more. I guess that's why you mentioned the pivots so if the line breaks it I should stop the trade anyway.

I will read some tutorials on how to draw a pivot and how to use them. I am sure pivots are helpful.

Thank you for the guidance.

No worries. Check out BillyRayValentine's thread in the Interactive Trading forum called 'No Brainers' for a great explanation of support and resistance levels.

My opinion on EUR/GBP is not to trade anymore. I have failed 2 trades there and the trend seems to be flattening down, I will wait until I see a trend either going down or up and try to jump in again.

I feel a bit more confident trading now, at least enough to just execute the trade and wait to see what happens.

And I also had a profitable trade on EUR/USD because I decided to listen to arubin also.

hey paypascal! because you live in Europe, try trading some of the european pairs, like USD/CHF, GBP/CHF, GBP/USD - I really like trading those, my favorite is GBP/USD.
Also, don't be afraid of taking trades, practice a bit on a demo, so that you can get a better feeling of your system - and if you are profitable, or have a pretty good winning ration after some time, use it in real life! there is no difference! if your system works in demo it will work in real life too! the only difference is if you follow it! the only difference is in your head!
write down some rules for yourself... I wrote down rules for my system and my wife makes me read them everytime in the morning before trading! and it really helps! Just remember there is no perfect system with no losses - but by being scared of the losses you will miss out on an opportunity to take good trades and therefore make money!