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No Rules Trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 19, 2007 2:52pm Mar 19, 2007 2:52pm
I don't have any quantifiable system; I'm pretty much a pure discretionary trader. The title might be a bit of misnomer, I do have risk control rules in place, but every trade setup is approached in a different way. I trade the information flow, that entails looking at what's going in the market, forming an opinion and acting on that opinion. These will be trades from my live account.
  • #2
  • Mar 19, 2007 2:55pm Mar 19, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting faure
I don't have any quantifiable system; I'm pretty much a pure discretionary trader. The title might be a bit of misnomer, I do have risk control rules in place, but every trade setup is approached in a different way. I trade the information flow, that entails looking at what's going in the market, forming an opinion and acting on that opinion. These will be trades from my live account.
Nice to know I'm not alone...
  • #3
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:20pm Mar 19, 2007 3:20pm
I've been getting long eurusd since last week. My average price is 3241 at 1:11.5 total leverage. You can see I've been adding to this trade as it's moving in my direction. I really think this pair is moving higher based on how price has been pushed back above 3290 a couple times since the open on Sunday night. Friday's move was significant I think; I'm expecting this week's Fed news & housing data to really push the pair further north.
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  • #4
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:24pm Mar 19, 2007 3:24pm
yeah man we need more like you (us) around here information is gold baby!

and i agree, dollar is in trouble, i will be selling rallies.
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:30pm Mar 19, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting cesarnc
Nice to know I'm not alone...
Last time I started a thread like this (at another forum) I got criticised. Nice change... guess it's good to know I'm not alone either.
  • #6
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:36pm Mar 19, 2007 3:36pm
This week is slow in news for Euro. FOMC is already expected to keep things as they are, although I've received reports on speculations about a rate cut.

Cable can receive a boost tomorrow backed on the pack of positive news, as forecast. Would drag Euro with it?

Both Euro and Cable are holding at a nice level, suggesting further to the upside.

All in all, the stock market seems to be getting back on track, all markets up today on takeovers announcements. This can provide a prop to the carries (after BOJ statement, likely), thus dragging the majors up with them.

These is what I'm on to.
  • #7
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:06pm Mar 19, 2007 4:06pm
Quoting cesarnc
This week is slow in news for Euro. FOMC is already expected to keep things as they are, although I've received reports on speculations about a rate cut.

Cable can receive a boost tomorrow backed on the pack of positive news, as forecast. Would drag Euro with it?

Both Euro and Cable are holding at a nice level, suggesting further to the upside.

All in all, the stock market seems to be getting back on track, all markets up today on takeovers announcements. This can provide a prop to the carries (after BOJ statement, likely), thus dragging the majors up with them.

These is what I'm on to.
We've got the same point of view then. The eurusd and gbpusd both look to be heading higher. The eurgbp has been moving higher in a strong trend so I'm still expecting eurusd to outperform.

I trade local South African stocks and that entails knowing what's going on in other equity markets. From what I'm seeing global equity markets are likely to move back above this year's highs. There is a strong correlation between the yen and equity markets right now, that combined with an outlook for higher markets signals the way for a weaker yen. The usdjpy rate might not move much but the other yen crosses could be moving much higher.

I'll be surprised if the BoJ announcement causes much volatility, but if there is any the yen should weaken.
  • #8
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:08pm Mar 19, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting merlin
yeah man we need more like you (us) around here information is gold baby!

and i agree, dollar is in trouble, i will be selling rallies.
I wonder what people on the other side of our dollar shorts are thinking?
  • #9
  • Mar 19, 2007 5:35pm Mar 19, 2007 5:35pm
Quoting faure
I wonder what people on the other side of our dollar shorts are thinking?
they are thinking subprime is overblown, i believe. then again, they could be thinking dollar is oversold.
Relax and be happy.
  • #10
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:06pm Mar 19, 2007 6:06pm
Glad to see we have more purists here...
Mr. Trend
  • #11
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:17pm Mar 19, 2007 6:17pm
Quoting faure
We've got the same point of view then. The eurusd and gbpusd both look to be heading higher. The eurgbp has been moving higher in a strong trend so I'm still expecting eurusd to outperform.

I trade local South African stocks and that entails knowing what's going on in other equity markets. From what I'm seeing global equity markets are likely to move back above this year's highs. There is a strong correlation between the yen and equity markets right now, that combined with an outlook for higher markets signals the way for a weaker yen. The usdjpy rate might not move much but the other yen crosses could be moving much higher.

I'll be surprised if the BoJ announcement causes much volatility, but if there is any the yen should weaken.
Resumption of carry trades is right around the corner, as I see it. Of course, everybody who dumpped those pairs are dying to get back to business at these very attractive prices.

However, majors/Yen acted weird today, maybe because of the upcoming BOJ statement, make them oscillate within a wide range... That behavior kept me out of carries today, as I was also dying to long the c$#@ out of them today...

Awaiting a new day.
  • #12
  • Mar 20, 2007 4:58am Mar 20, 2007 4:58am
Ha, ha I guess I got that one wrong. The eurusd is being way outperformed by the gbpusd. Infact the eurgbp is looking very weak right now. I've just entered a pretty large short of 1:5 @ 6804. The inflation data out of the UK seems to have been the catalyst for the move. My stop for now is at 6825 but I'll be moving it lower and will also be adding to my short later in the day.
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  • #13
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:12am Mar 20, 2007 5:12am
Quoting cesarnc
Resumption of carry trades is right around the corner, as I see it. Of course, everybody who dumpped those pairs are dying to get back to business at these very attractive prices.

However, majors/Yen acted weird today, maybe because of the upcoming BOJ statement, make them oscillate within a wide range... That behavior kept me out of carries today, as I was also dying to long the c$#@ out of them today...

Awaiting a new day.
Actually I do have some longs on the yen crosses. A 1:7.5 long (ave. price 155.41) on the eurjpy and a 1:2.5 long (ave. price 228.33) on the gbpjpy (I now really want to get bigger on the gbpjpy long since it seems like cable is going to be taking the lead from the euro). I'll be waiting for a small pullback in the gbpjpy rate to go long. You can see my execution wasn't great on the second eurjpy add. I'm trying to improve on my entries.
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  • #14
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:17am Mar 20, 2007 5:17am
Here's the chart for the gbpjpy trade. I really want to add to this trade but I feel I need to work on getting better prices on my entries. Waiting for this pullback is killing me but I know I need to be patient.
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  • #15
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:20am Mar 20, 2007 5:20am
Quoting merlin
they are thinking subprime is overblown, i believe. then again, they could be thinking dollar is oversold.
I guess there will always be sellers in the 3300/3400 area since it's near the previous high. The eurusd is sitting at 3280 at the time of this post. A great r/r trade, would be to go long here with a stop/reverse at 3265. I'm watching the 3270 level carefully right now.
  • #16
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:21am Mar 20, 2007 5:21am
Quoting faure
Here's the chart for the gbpjpy trade. I really want to add to this trade but I feel I need to work on getting better prices on my entries. Waiting for this pullback is killing me but I know I need to be patient.
Question now is whether or not 230 will hold. Cable is at 78% fibo from big fall, so we will need a few hours for consolidation now.

I don't see it like a time to build new positions. I'm long Cable from 9430 and added at 9505 on the news and that's it.
  • #17
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:27am Mar 20, 2007 5:27am
Help here...

I'm holding an annoying -30 drawdown Euro now... Do you guys think it would get back to 3300 today, so I could at least cut this loss?

This SOB is killing my profits in Cable.
  • #18
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:34am Mar 20, 2007 5:34am
Quoting cesarnc
Help here...

I'm holding an annoying -30 drawdown Euro now... Do you guys think it would get back to 3300 today, so I could at least cut this loss?

This SOB is killing my profits in Cable.
I am not big on predictions, better at postdictions... but, I think EU will reverse at about 3265 and then it should climb up past 3300

But don't trade on my advise, The stress would be too much for me... LOL
  • #19
  • Mar 20, 2007 5:36am Mar 20, 2007 5:36am
Quoting smjones
I am not big on predictions, better at postdictions... but, I think EU will reverse at about 3265 and then it should climb up past 3300

But don't trade on my advise, The stress would be too much for me... LOL
no problem... I read about stops built at 3275 area, but they are not boosting Euro up to 3300... My long at 3307 was expecting further to the upside, after that crazy Friday. But no... It is now ranging and frying my nerves only.

I'll give it a little more time now. Let's see...
  • #20
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:08am Mar 20, 2007 6:08am
Just made a killing trading CAD news now. 40 pips in a spark.... EUR loss is more than absorbed now...

Never traded USDCAD before, but it was soooooo looking it was going to fall down the hole at the news...
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