Hello All, I just have some thoughts that I would like to put forth and my logic behind them and the results from testing them that I would like to share that are currently baffling me to no end and would like to hear you all's thoughts on why this is or perhaps how I can solve this problem and determine if its even worth pursuing. I'm a very experienced programmer so this isn't a question of my skill or ability just merely am not understanding why this is not working when every piece of logic says that it should. So heres the problem...
I'm sure for those of us that have coded many EAs more often than not they blow the account pretty quickly the first couple of runs and if not most of the EAs perform similarly even after months of coding. I understand this is largely a function of the back test quality in mt4, but even with 90% quality from your brokers feed should give you for the most part consistent results whether it be winning or losing. So here is what I propose
Given a Strategy that merely enters the market in a direction based on a set of entry rules. It has SL: 10pips, TP: 5pips and the strategy just lets the trade run till either of these levels are hit
The Results:
Trades: 679. Wins: 254 (37%) Losses: 425 ( 63%)
Obviously this strategy would blow an account pretty quick. So my idea is this. Why not just do the opposite of everything in the strategy, if we get a long signal, then we short. And instead of 10pip SL we now use a 5pip stop and instead of 5pip TP we use a 10pip TP so now all those previous stop outs are cut in half pip wise. And all those previous wins are larger and occur more often since we are entering in the opposite direction. So I coded this. Exact same entry rules, exact same timeframe and dates, exact same data and backtest quality even checked that it was entering at exact same prices and times etc.
The Results:
Trades: 679. Wins: 31 (4.5%) Losses : 648 (95.5%)
This does not make any sense at all to me. I know 90% quality is not 100% so its hard to prove this exactly, but those are pretty drastic differences When technically all the previous losses should now be wins and vice versa thus our new win % should have been (63%) and this should be a very profitable strategy. Any thoughts or ideas would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
I'm sure for those of us that have coded many EAs more often than not they blow the account pretty quickly the first couple of runs and if not most of the EAs perform similarly even after months of coding. I understand this is largely a function of the back test quality in mt4, but even with 90% quality from your brokers feed should give you for the most part consistent results whether it be winning or losing. So here is what I propose
Given a Strategy that merely enters the market in a direction based on a set of entry rules. It has SL: 10pips, TP: 5pips and the strategy just lets the trade run till either of these levels are hit
The Results:
Trades: 679. Wins: 254 (37%) Losses: 425 ( 63%)
Obviously this strategy would blow an account pretty quick. So my idea is this. Why not just do the opposite of everything in the strategy, if we get a long signal, then we short. And instead of 10pip SL we now use a 5pip stop and instead of 5pip TP we use a 10pip TP so now all those previous stop outs are cut in half pip wise. And all those previous wins are larger and occur more often since we are entering in the opposite direction. So I coded this. Exact same entry rules, exact same timeframe and dates, exact same data and backtest quality even checked that it was entering at exact same prices and times etc.
The Results:
Trades: 679. Wins: 31 (4.5%) Losses : 648 (95.5%)
This does not make any sense at all to me. I know 90% quality is not 100% so its hard to prove this exactly, but those are pretty drastic differences When technically all the previous losses should now be wins and vice versa thus our new win % should have been (63%) and this should be a very profitable strategy. Any thoughts or ideas would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!