The Obama Moment? | Forex Factory

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The Obama Moment?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 21, 2009 2:30am Jan 21, 2009 2:30am
I’m confused and a bit disappointed. Maybe I tried to read too much into this.
I’m a Chartists, or so I would like to think of myself. But I thought it would be a nice experience to actually watch the inauguration speech of President Obama and watch what will happen on the charts.
Below are the actual results of the hour his speech took place and the results there off.
If possible I would like to hear from other trades, especially the Fundamental traders, because this was news, wasn’t it, or does Fundamentals only pertain to Currency news…. What about other news like war or something similar then?

GU
Open 1.4021
High 1.4045
Low 1.3989
Close 1.3997
Range 56
O/C 24

EU
Open 1.2945
High 1.2958
Low 1.2921
Close 1.2935
Range 37
O/C 10

UC
Open 1.1300
High 1.1304
Low 1.1292
Close 1.1300
Range 12
O/C 0

UJ
Open 90.39
High 90.46
Low 90.33
Close 90.46
Range 13
O/C 7

GJ
Open 131.19
High 131.31
Low 130.99
Close 131.09
Range 32
O/C 10

My Point is that I would have thought [and yes I know you don't think in trading but only follow what the charts tell you, at least for me in charting that works] that the currencies would have shown more volatility!
  • #2
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:37am Jan 21, 2009 2:37am
I thought so too.
  • #3
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:43am Jan 21, 2009 2:43am
If he'd got shot you might have seen a spike. As it was, whatever he said matched speculators expectations and/or what did not they did not care about. If you're a chartist then you have no need to consider fundamentals, which are essentially a fundamental waste of time when you could be analysing a chart and observing what is definitely happening in the market.
  • #4
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:48am Jan 21, 2009 2:48am
Quoting billflet
I thought so too.
It’s nice to see that a trader of your prestige had the same outlook…
Below are some news that I found that might give some insight into the way the markets is moving but it still does not provide me any solution as to why the market practically froze, when a new President of the World leading currency is inaugurated.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jH8hoJ62wIfn5lTns-eQm4GCtl1A
As Obama took his oath of office Tuesday, US shares plummeted on renewed fears about the global banking sector offsetting optimism over his expected actions to eject the world's biggest economy from a deep recession.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 332.13 points (4.01 percent) to 7,949.09, slipping below the key level of 8,000.
Banking shares worldwide dragged down markets due to concern that further losses will lead to more nationalizations. Concern was focused in Britain where Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds are in trouble again.
"The dollar has outperformed the euro and British pound but it has declined against the Japanese yen indicating that the dollar's rally is a reflection of pessimism and not optimism," said Kathy Lien of Global Forex Trading.
"We are seeing a flight to safety into US dollars but bonds are the instruments of choice and not equities."
Lien said that President Obama inherited "a very troubled economy and he certainly has his work cut out for him over the next few years."
But the closely watched currency pair Tuesday was the British pound's plunge to 1.3849 dollars from 1.4735 on Friday
The pound fell to the lowest levels against the dollar in over seven years as concerns grew about the well being of Britain's financial sector just one day after the government launched another huge bank bailout program.
The pound broke two key support levels at 1.4500 and 1.4000.
"Trends can last for a very long time in the currency market which is why there is a decent chance that we could see the pound versus the dollar slip to 1.3685, the June 2001 low," Lien said.
"If that price level is broken, it would be a 16-year low for the currency pair."
The dollar was also higher at 1.1479 Swiss francs in late New York trading from 1.1197 on Friday.
  • #5
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:58am Jan 21, 2009 2:58am
Quoting birdt
If he'd got shot you might have seen a spike. As it was, whatever he said matched speculators expectations and/or what did not they did not care about. If you're a chartist then you have no need to consider fundamentals, which are essentially a fundamental waste of time when you could be analysing a chart and observing what is definitely happening in the market.
tx birdt, so if I understand correctly the speculators already had the outcome of his speech in mind and that was already incorporated into the longer TF's on the charts, hence the fact that they basically continued on there marry way, be it Bullish or Bearish…[/font]

Quoting birdt
If you're a chartist then you have no need to consider fundamentals, which are essentially a fundamental waste of time when you could be analysing a chart and observing what is definitely happening in the market.
Agreed, just thought that this would have been exiting. Fundamentals is probably more for short term traders as the market usually continues on its way previous to an announcement.
  • #6
  • Jan 21, 2009 3:48am Jan 21, 2009 3:48am
Quoting birdt
If he'd got shot you might have seen a spike. As it was, whatever he said matched speculators expectations and/or what did not they did not care about. If you're a chartist then you have no need to consider fundamentals, which are essentially a fundamental waste of time when you could be analysing a chart and observing what is definitely happening in the market.
I don't try to predict market direction based on the news but I was still surprised at the lack of activity.
  • #7
  • Jan 21, 2009 11:45am Jan 21, 2009 11:45am
Hi Folks! The calendar team asked me to explain why Obama's speech wasn't listed on the calendar. Presidential speeches rarely have an impact on the market unless the speech is new information regarding the economy or financial initiatives. This is why in the event 'specs' for Obama and Bush it says "He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects - only speeches that might have direct market impact are listed on the calendar;". The team didn't think the inauguration speech would have 'direct market impact' so it was left off the calendar.
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  • #8
  • Jan 21, 2009 12:04pm Jan 21, 2009 12:04pm
I heard someone on CNBC say that the (stock) market tanked because Obama didn't walk on water like everyone expected.

Oh, the things I can foresee.
  • #9
  • Jan 21, 2009 4:57pm Jan 21, 2009 4:57pm
tim geichtner's hearing in congress did show a bunch of spikes and jumps today. there were some real weird moves for a coupkle hours. then an hour or two later the swissies decide to combat inflation and destroy the CHF. just look at a one hour EURCHF chart to see how that went lol.
  • #10
  • Jan 21, 2009 5:59pm Jan 21, 2009 5:59pm
Wow, the most pathetic day in our american history, and I was alive to see it..
  • #11
  • Jan 21, 2009 6:41pm Jan 21, 2009 6:41pm
Quoting miketodd
Wow, the most pathetic day in our american history, and I was alive to see it..

Care to enligth us??
  • #12
  • Jan 21, 2009 7:04pm Jan 21, 2009 7:04pm
NO. In time it will all speak for itself... FWIW, McCain was not the answer either..
  • #13
  • Jan 21, 2009 7:11pm Jan 21, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting miketodd
NO. In time it will all speak for itself... FWIW, McCain was not the answer either..

oh yeah!!!

Well, I know who your candidate was. Could be the best choice, unfortunately, the media didn't support him. But calling a day pathetic is somehow a wrong choice of words.
  • #14
  • Jan 21, 2009 7:26pm Jan 21, 2009 7:26pm
the world was watching this moment. that is why a lot of things stood still. i know i wasn't trading.
  • #15
  • Jan 21, 2009 7:33pm Jan 21, 2009 7:33pm
So's as to not turn this into a political nothingness thread, I will simply leave with this comment... "Pathetic" was a very clear and precise choice of wording...
  • #16
  • Jan 21, 2009 7:53pm Jan 21, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting miketodd
So's as to not turn this into a political nothingness thread, I will simply leave with this comment... "Pathetic" was a very clear and precise choice of wording...
ahhhh!!

Oh, you're absolutely right. I must rephrase, it's a poor choice of words . Just calling "pathetic" for the sake of it, most definitely qualifies for that remark.

mmmmm you're probaby leaving becuase it's all emotional. I understand. No sustance behind the words. Sounds like a wounded deer.

Anyway, I am so sorry for your loss.
  • #17
  • Last Post: Edited 3:57am Jan 22, 2009 3:31am | Edited 3:57am
Fellow Traders...

Please, I started this thread to try and understand what happened on the charts not for bigotry.

But I got my answer out of the first few post, tx to:

birdt - "...As it was, whatever he said matched speculators expectations and/or what did not they did not care about"

billflet - "...I was still surprised at the lack of activity"

Twee - "Presidential speeches rarely have an impact on the market unless the speech is new information regarding the economy or financial initiatives"

Now lets start trading and make some money. I'll quote myself... "It’s all in the tick"
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