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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,921
  • Mar 19, 2007 8:55pm Mar 19, 2007 8:55pm
Quoting southernmind
Can Sombody Say "freeze!!".
why are you cold? does sourthernmind have northern exposure?
  • #1,922
  • Mar 19, 2007 9:09pm Mar 19, 2007 9:09pm
Well, just woke up and .... what happened? My SL was 1 or 2 pips of getting hit, and I'm around $500 in the hole. I assume nothing was stated as of yet. As promised I will keep my short till London, or till SL.
  • #1,923
  • Mar 19, 2007 9:21pm Mar 19, 2007 9:21pm
Quoting 59fender
why are you cold? does sourthernmind have northern exposure?
If he wants to freeze all he has to do is come up here. We have had temperatures below 0F every day for months.

Logically (although I cannot imagine accusing forex of being logical) if the BOJ did not increase the interest rate, the effect should be to bolster the carry trade. Any increase in the interest rate would have decreased the profit from carry trade. Now, there is some assurance that, at least for the time being, the carry trade profits are safe, therefore we should see the yen crosses go up. Then again, this is just based on logic and may have no bearing on what occur with forex.
  • #1,924
  • Mar 19, 2007 9:30pm Mar 19, 2007 9:30pm
negative reverse divergence in play on the dailys of gbpjpy - with close line resistance at 231.36. Short term overbought on GBPUSD as well on daily should lead to imminent move down in GBP with negative reverse divergence on USDJPY implying strength for the yen -

Overall the trend is down - we are hitting a double top today @ 50 percent retracement from 2/23/07 with 9 sma below 45ema on price and rsi - looks like a good place to short with sl just above 231.36 and minimum price move to 221.05 - should yield a high probability play over 60% with reward to risk of minimum 4 to 1 and likely higher if overall trend is to continue - less the interest cost of carry. A move down to that 221 level will accelerate the overall trend move and we should be seeing divergence followed by reverse divergences to continue bringing us lower at that point. Took small position short already @229.50 and will look to add to it once intraday trend turns down - sl currently sitting @ 231.50.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,925
  • Mar 19, 2007 9:48pm Mar 19, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting Leugimp
negative reverse divergence in play on the dailys of gbpjpy - with close line resistance at 231.36. Short term overbought on GBPUSD as well on daily should lead to imminent move down in GBP with negative reverse divergence on USDJPY implying strength for the yen -

Overall the trend is down - we are hitting a double top today @ 50 percent retracement from 2/23/07 with 9 sma below 45ema on price and rsi - looks like a good place to short with sl just above 231.36 and minimum price move to 221.05 - should yield a high probability play over 60% with reward to risk of minimum 4 to 1 and likely higher if overall trend is to continue - less the interest cost of carry. A move down to that 221 level will accelerate the overall trend move and we should be seeing divergence followed by reverse divergences to continue bringing us lower at that point. Took small position short already @229.50 and will look to add to it once intraday trend turns down - sl currently sitting @ 231.50.
Well, I'd hate to go against all the nay sayers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this pair go up It has broken my speed line today, and this is typically a good sign for long. Either way I'm cashing out at ~229.60 for about 300 pips.

Kevin
Attached Image
  • #1,926
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:28pm Mar 19, 2007 10:28pm
Quoting kharvell
Well, I'd hate to go against all the nay sayers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this pair go up It has broken my speed line today, and this is typically a good sign for long. Either way I'm cashing out at ~229.60 for about 300 pips.

Kevin
Dont ever feel like you should go with nay sayers - having your own view is key. I have many colleagues that I disagree with and somehow we both make money with differing opinions. I too have enjoyed the bounce up - it is when you start enjoying it too much in an oppositely directed trend that you get into trouble(I'm speaking of myself).

As far as speed line, I have one as well that I use on the dailys and it is currently at sideways to down - very close to turning side-up but not yet. Is your speed line also on daily timeframe? Is it some kind of strict positional derivative or is it an MA derivative? If you dont want to answer, it is obviously ok as well.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,927
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:55pm Mar 19, 2007 10:55pm
my indicators are saying long still and i cant find any analyse thats beting on a downside too. but like u sayed everyone got your own trading strategy.

anyway if we go to fundamental level, all that i can see is coments of carry trades coming back, stocks going up 1.06% atm helping aid g/j long, everyoneis waiting Fukui comments atm, here is a cool analyse about fukui:


"waiting for the BoJ Monthly Report at 06.00GMT and the speech of BoJ Governor Fukui at 06.30GMT. Governor Fukui is not expected to surprise the market with very hawkish rhetoric, so the carry trades should remain on track and the JPY weak"

i think that we r going more up, 229.80 looks a good place to enter. just my bet atm, i dont trad eon my bets anyway, just on my indicators, and they still looking good
  • #1,928
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:56pm Mar 19, 2007 10:56pm
No rate increase afterall.
  • #1,929
  • Mar 19, 2007 11:30pm Mar 19, 2007 11:30pm
Quoting hazz
my indicators are saying long still and i cant find any analyse thats beting on a downside too. but like u sayed everyone got your own trading strategy.

anyway if we go to fundamental level, all that i can see is coments of carry trades coming back, stocks going up 1.06% atm helping aid g/j long, everyoneis waiting Fukui comments atm, here is a cool analyse about fukui:


"waiting for the BoJ Monthly Report at 06.00GMT and the speech of BoJ Governor Fukui at 06.30GMT. Governor Fukui is not expected to surprise the market with very hawkish rhetoric, so the carry trades should remain on track and the JPY weak"

i think that we r going more up, 229.80 looks a good place to enter. just my bet atm, i dont trad eon my bets anyway, just on my indicators, and they still looking good
Yes , th indicators are still showing long, If one is not in the trade , it maybe wise to wait till the signal is strong to short or long.
  • #1,930
  • Mar 19, 2007 11:50pm Mar 19, 2007 11:50pm
Would Be Happy For Any Insight In The Recent 60-70 Pip Drop
  • #1,931
  • Mar 19, 2007 11:57pm Mar 19, 2007 11:57pm
Quoting KingColossus3rd
Would Be Happy For Any Insight In The Recent 60-70 Pip Drop
.50 fib, previous resistance
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  • #1,932
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:06am Mar 20, 2007 12:06am
I Dont Know Why But I Had Myself At .786 Near A .100 On A Smaller Fib Level. Thanks For The Info,
Cheers
  • #1,933
  • Mar 20, 2007 1:38am Mar 20, 2007 1:38am
Well there goes my 100 pip Kamikaze trade.... back to basics for Mr. Marketz. I will update my demo statement at the end of month 2... see you guys later.

AND GOOD LUCK!!!
  • #1,934
  • Mar 20, 2007 3:02am Mar 20, 2007 3:02am
As per FA is concern, GBP news is positive...Fukui's comments are not really JPY positive...so LONG on this pair is pretty much still supported...
  • #1,935
  • Mar 20, 2007 4:58am Mar 20, 2007 4:58am
Quoting Leugimp
Dont ever feel like you should go with nay sayers - having your own view is key. I have many colleagues that I disagree with and somehow we both make money with differing opinions. I too have enjoyed the bounce up - it is when you start enjoying it too much in an oppositely directed trend that you get into trouble(I'm speaking of myself).

As far as speed line, I have one as well that I use on the dailys and it is currently at sideways to down - very close to turning side-up but not yet. Is your speed line also on daily timeframe? Is it some kind of strict positional derivative or is it an MA derivative? If you dont want to answer, it is obviously ok as well.
Hey Leugimp,

Looks like I might have been right. My speed lines are just regular ole speed lines, but I use them on really large extremes. For instance, I have mine drawn from the high of Jan 23rd to the low of March 5th; nearly 3 months. Since it was broken yesterday, I had a hunch this bad boy was going up, and now I see it going up until about 231.75 where my next speed line is. Personally, I have exited my trade, as 300 pips was plenty for me, but I may re-enter if I'm feeling up to it. Here's my chart:
Attached Image
  • #1,936
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:18am Mar 20, 2007 6:18am
Quoting kharvell
Hey Leugimp,

Looks like I might have been right. My speed lines are just regular ole speed lines, but I use them on really large extremes. For instance, I have mine drawn from the high of Jan 23rd to the low of March 5th; nearly 3 months. Since it was broken yesterday, I had a hunch this bad boy was going up, and now I see it going up until about 231.75 where my next speed line is. Personally, I have exited my trade, as 300 pips was plenty for me, but I may re-enter if I'm feeling up to it. Here's my chart:

I shorted again @ 230.07 the down move should now be initiated - stop at 231.50 looking for move to 221 in the minimum.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,937
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:21am Mar 20, 2007 6:21am
Quoting Leugimp
I shorted again @ 230.07 the down move should now be initiated - stop at 231.50 looking for move to 221 in the minimum.
Back to business? Nice to see you back in town
  • #1,938
  • Mar 20, 2007 6:54am Mar 20, 2007 6:54am
my indicators are neutral almost going short. but its going back up atm and i still long since 227.30. more then indicators anyway its following fundamentals and stocks. huge bids on u/j at 117, 116.80 and 116.90 can help g/j to hold also. lets see what happens
  • #1,939
  • Mar 20, 2007 7:04am Mar 20, 2007 7:04am
looks like that it stoped at 100 days SMA (long resistance)
  • #1,940
  • Mar 20, 2007 7:37am Mar 20, 2007 7:37am
Just an update since we did in fact surge through the 229.35 area. I notice we are now pulling back to it as anticipated. See below in the analysis from last night.

Good trading everyone.


Quoting DownRiverTrader
Our trading plan worked out perfectly today, as this pair moved up 227 ticks and very near our first target area. The market gave us an opportunity again to establish longs at 225.88.

Some of you may have taken profits on the move up through 229 and that's understandable.

So what now?

If you are long, stay long and look for a final push up to 229.35 where short term longs should cover for profit. I expect range trading as we build value between River at 227.66 and Level -1 at 229.35.

Use today's River Level of 227.66 as a guage for any weakness. A close below here would be our first warning that we may trade back to lower levels. I would not set up shorts just yet though.

If we do move strongly through the 229.35 area, we will look to set up longs on a move back down to this area. Aggressive traders may want to set up longs on the first move through but I do not recommend this.


Remember to review the price distribution analysis for this pair located here in the forum to get a better view of overall value.


NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 227.66

http://www.theviewdownriver.com/pics...y3-20-2007.PNG
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