The Codgers View:

It is my Intention & Hope that This can be a Fruitfull & Worthwhile Thread for ALL Pairs.

I have limited post ability to {an average} of those that I think are Real & Valid. {I have a few regulars in mind that I hope to entice to this thread.}

That being said, Please understand that this is intended to be a {very} serious thread with ALL posts expected to be from a viewpoint of something You can Work With.

Currently I have the Post portal set @ 8. This may change.

My broad thought on this thread is that we would have a couple of Scalpers, Swing Traders, Med Term & Long Term Traders Post as they see fit. But... The Reality of Trading is that any Trader Trading Longer Timeframes than Scalps may have an opinion on Where it is Headed in the Short Term. {how do you think we pick our Entries?}

So... to launch "The Codgers View."

EUR/USD
I expect that, because we were so close before the inauguration, that, ~1.2550 Still HAS to be Re-Tested.
My observations suggest that this will be achieved within the next few {24 Hr} sessions. Possibly This Week.


Please understand that there may be calls made on this thread that turn out to Wrong. That happens to ALL of us.
Lambaste them and they will leave.

If you can't post here, perhaps Jay will allow you to Post Here?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=147445

Sometimes they land on Fertile Soil; Sometimes they land on stone.

It seems this one landed on stone...

Let's drop the Post portal to see if there are any other opinions on the table.

Post portal dropped to 4...

When the Euro busted out of the consolidation last December it never looked back, is this the retest?

Levels are reaching some good areas for probable support from the prior consolidation but there's no sign in PA yet to confirm it. Forks would suggest that at least a double bottom or new lows.

If she holds here, look for 1.39 before the EOM.

fwiw,

Just became aware of this thread, as this Trading Discussion board is a bit off my beaten path. Looking forward to some quality pondering and pontificating. I'm mostly EU oriented these days.

Forgot about this thread and posted this in EU thread, reposting here.

A morning entry after a night of ranging. I'm looking for a shift below this current support but not a big move yet as I don't know where that might come from. If this works out, I'm thinking 2960-80 may be the ceiling for awhile with 2850 the floor. However...

If we can get a good break below current support at 2960-80, then 2 hr could give up a solid 100 pips to the lower BB in this range. I've just gone short ((2980)) but won't be able to watch the trade, so it's a bit out of the ordinary for me...

The current candle closes in 30m at 8pm CST. If it closes below the thin grey line, then that's good for shorts. Above it or on it, not so good. Target is 2850ish. We'll see.

UPDATE: 8:30am... Price at 2940, so far so good. Stiff support at M2 (2923) area, with +10 locked. Back tonite and see what happened.

I've added a LTL which may be a complication near term if it holds. Bear flag in the making??

((Yellow dotted line is just a 14% level from an older swing fib ((3700/2800)) that never got deleted. I forgot to hide it for this shot. The light dotted grey line above it is 23% level))

UPDATE TO UPDATE: How does that old saying go ... "it seemed like a good idea at the time." Got out with some pips on the retrace, as the market had other plans. Some range trades and then done for the day here with no plans for Friday trading.

Thoughts at this point are that everything is holding it's breath, with a bias back towards risk aversion again on the table. On that note, I'll slide into next week and watch from the stands for a bit...

Good job AK. "Never let a Winner become a Loser".

On that note: I would rather say;
"Never let a 'Reasonable' Winner become a Loser".

In other words, If I'm UP 5P, I'm not moving my Stop to BE+1. {at least, not unless I'm looking for a "Date" with my Borker. Due to the fact that I would surely be whipsawed into 10 times the number of commissions. (spreads) }

ps. Looking at the volotility on today's short TF Charts, I agree with you on standing aside tommorow {Friday Jan 23rd}.
Let's get the euphoric battle out of the way before we risk our hard earned reward.

To the risk of sounding like a broken record, I want to reiterate that I normally trade the weekly chart. My current trade is true to that statement.

http://i40.tinypic.com/2mng9yb.jpg

The Parabolic SAR trend reversed on January 18th which is when I entered my short trade at 3015.

The fact that I'm trading a longer time frame does not make me immune to some short term volatility but it does offer a layer of protection that makes me comfortable.

So how low will the trend go? Possibly the 2500 area. But since I have no way to be certain, I trade with only a stop loss (no take profit).

The riskiest element of my strategy is that I would be at a loss if my s/l was hit this instant as it is the first week I'm in this trade. On the upside, profits will be locked in by next week if my trade continues to go well. My goal by doing it this way is to limit my losses and maximize my profits.

I look forward to contributing to this thread.

Honestly, the whole notion of trading a weekly TF just fascinates me. I honestly don't think I'd know where to begin, as opposed to just managing to catch a trend and riding it for however long.

Point of this post tho.. when I read Jay's opening line, I was immediately struck by the thought that there are probably a high percentage of folks here that have literally never heard a broken record, maybe have never even seen one, broken or otherwise, and have no idea what that might be.

A scratched CD looping maybe, but even those are getting archaic I suppose as MP3 players and the like displace that technology... what a time to have lived thru... and we're not done yet.

Final note, I just saw my EU morning target of 2850 hit and on to 2800 and likely beyond, but alas... 18 hrs too late and not in trade... once again proving that... timing is everything.