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Attachments: Low Draw Down Fractal System
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Low Draw Down Fractal System

  • #21
  • Jan 21, 2009 9:57am Jan 21, 2009 9:57am
Hi Dreamliner,

Interesting and very simple system.
How many pairs did you look at when testing.
Did some seem better then others or were they about the same?

Thanks,

AZ
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #22
  • Jan 21, 2009 10:37am Jan 21, 2009 10:37am
Based on the original strategy you only trade the first time it breaks the fractal level and not re-enter if price open above the fractal level.

TimeFreedom

Quoting rogerha
You could have 3 days in a row that might open above the most recent up fractal. Do you only trade the first day after it breaks the fractal level, or would you trade all three ?
  • #23
  • Jan 21, 2009 10:46am Jan 21, 2009 10:46am
Quoting TimeFreedom
Based on the original strategy you only trade the first time it breaks the fractal level and not re-enter if price open above the fractal level.

TimeFreedom
Understood, thanks.
  • #24
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:05pm Jan 21, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting kevinsw
Just for the record, What times are you using as open and closing times for the market in EST (usa)?

Thanks
kevin
Any broker should be fine, I use IBFX which is currently 7:00 PM EST.
  • #25
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:07pm Jan 21, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting AZ-Heat
Hi Dreamliner,

Interesting and very simple system.
How many pairs did you look at when testing.
Did some seem better then others or were they about the same?

Thanks,

AZ
I haven't done any testing . I've just visually looked at the charts and have seen that this is a profitable system on all pairs. I'm hoping others can do some real testing as I can't do so right now due to time.
  • #26
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:07pm Jan 21, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting rogerha
You could have 3 days in a row that might open above the most recent up fractal. Do you only trade the first day after it breaks the fractal level, or would you trade all three ?
So far it is only the first bar. I'm sure others will want to keep going with the trend, but for me I will take the smaller loss and the smaller reward.
  • #27
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:30pm Jan 21, 2009 2:30pm
What if price breaks last fractal up then go down and day close with loss. Do we place new pending buystop order next day at the same fractal level?
  • #28
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:31pm Jan 21, 2009 2:31pm
I tested the method. Works really well with EURUSD, all other majors give bad results with high volatility.

10k begin saldo, each trade is 0.1 lot. I did one (very minor) change to the system, the trade closes on next bar open, not bar close.

I wouldn't use systems that only work on one pair.

Result curves from 1990-today for majors below

Now the question is how can the curve be so beautiful on EURUSD?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fc_1.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: fc_2.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: fc_3.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: fc_4.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #29
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:32pm Jan 21, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Ok I just did a quick backtest with all pairs. If we simply put buy/stop and sell/stop orders at the last fractal, and exit at the end of the bar that hits the order, we are quite profitable with low drawdown. We do not need a stop loss because we exit at the end of the bar. "Time" is our stop loss.

Test it out, see what you think.
Hi

I placed fractals on my charts and saw that when the fractal was pointing down, price was going higher. And the opposite for a fractal with an up arrow.

So is an "up" fractal one that points up and vice versa for down fractal? Thanks
  • #30
  • Jan 21, 2009 2:53pm Jan 21, 2009 2:53pm
I did a test using Forex Strategy Builder, you can find the software here, and the result are best on EURUSD, but the other pairs were also profitable just not as profitable.

TimeFreedom

Quoting mikkom
I tested the method. Works really well with EURUSD, all other majors give bad results with high volatility.

10k begin saldo, each trade is 0.1 lot. I did one (very minor) change to the system, the trade closes on next bar open, not bar close.

I wouldn't use systems that only work on one pair.

Result curves from 1990-today for majors below

Now the question is how can the curve be so beautiful on EURUSD?
  • #31
  • Jan 21, 2009 3:07pm Jan 21, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting TimeFreedom
I did a test using Forex Strategy Builder, you can find the software here, and the result are best on EURUSD, but the other pairs were also profitable just not as profitable.

TimeFreedom
Why would I need the software when I just posted the results from my testing?

ps. Feel free to post your own curves from the other software if you want, I trust my results.
  • #32
  • Jan 21, 2009 3:16pm Jan 21, 2009 3:16pm
Obviously you don't need the software, but if anyone else wanted to take a look at the software I used to test they could download and experiment on their own.

TimeFreedom

Quoting mikkom
Why would I need the software when I just posted the results from my testing?

ps. Feel free to post your own curves from the other software if you want, I trust my results.
  • #33
  • Jan 22, 2009 1:42am Jan 22, 2009 1:42am
One thing I have to mention here is that I never thought one bar close would be so efficient as it is, I modified my current system and one bar close almost always makes money.

So with good entry, one bar close can really be profitable. I got about 15% more profit at backtesting by adding one daily bar close to my current system.

So thanks for the thread even though the core system here is not for me!
  • #34
  • Jan 22, 2009 6:21am Jan 22, 2009 6:21am
Feel free to share your system rather than just say how good it is . That's what we're here for.

Quoting mikkom
One thing I have to mention here is that I never thought one bar close would be so efficient as it is, I modified my current system and one bar close almost always makes money.

So with good entry, one bar close can really be profitable. I got about 15% more profit at backtesting by adding one daily bar close to my current system.

So thanks for the thread even though the core system here is not for me!
  • #35
  • Jan 22, 2009 6:24am Jan 22, 2009 6:24am
Quoting Dreamliner
Feel free to share your system rather than just say how good it is . That's what we're here for.
Sorry, it's private.

For some profitable mechanical systems, look here (thread is no longer continued) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=134827
  • #36
  • Jan 22, 2009 6:26am Jan 22, 2009 6:26am
No need for you to post anything about it then, keep it private.

Quoting mikkom
Sorry, it's private.

For some profitable mechanical systems, look here (thread is no longer continued) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=134827
  • #37
  • Jan 22, 2009 6:33am Jan 22, 2009 6:33am
Quoting Dreamliner
No need for you to post anything about it then, keep it private.
Sorry about that. My point was that the exit method might very well work on any other system - working exit strategies are not too common.
  • #38
  • Jan 22, 2009 6:59am Jan 22, 2009 6:59am
Quoting mikkom
Sorry about that. My point was that the exit method might very well work on any other system - working exit strategies are not too common.
No problem, glad you're finding a better exit strategy, that helps doesn't it!
  • #39
  • Jan 22, 2009 7:07am Jan 22, 2009 7:07am
Quoting Dreamliner
No problem, glad you're finding a better exit strategy, that helps doesn't it!
In fact I didn't remove my original exit strategy, it still works much better than this one. I just added a new layer to split the risk between these two strategies by a weight percentage (removes result volatility) but this is probably not the way you want this thread to go so I'll stop now and leave the thread.
  • #40
  • Jan 23, 2009 4:44am Jan 23, 2009 4:44am
Mikkom perhaps you'd be kind enough to post your source code for the pretty EURUSD graph since

1) the method "isn't for you"
2) dreamliner was kind enough to share the method
3) i brought the thread back from the dead


whatcha say? whatcha say?

i started writing it myself, but got tangled up with iFractals... not sure if that is what i need or not.

if you want to be stingy, at least explain whether you used iFractal, and if not, how you accomplished coding it.
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