Daily GBP/JPY analysis | Page 96 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/JPY

Similar Threads

GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD thread 126 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD (technical analysis) 3,084 replies

Gbp/jpy = Gbp/usd X Usd/jpy ?? 5 replies

Adwa Daily GBP/JPY analysis 23 replies

Attachments: Daily GBP/JPY analysis
Exit Attachments

Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,901
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:05pm Mar 19, 2007 1:05pm
I guess a good question for today is "what is BOJ waiting for?". Why not today? Now we have another scenario... they don't raise the rates. The carries get stoked and see a great opportunity to by back in at a low. My 100 pip SL is taken out in seconds, I'm down 1/3 on my equity, and I gotta work twice as hard in the next month to make up the loss and show a profit.

We'll see what happens.
  • #1,902
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:20pm Mar 19, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting mr.marketz
Moonchild, before I get into an explanation i want to reiterate that this is all speculative... and if this were live money for me, I would be much more cautious. I just started dabbling with this pair a month ago... I'm still learning the way it breathes. having said that, we know that the BOJ has been talking rate increases (getting us warmed up). So far they gave us a little bump, and I for one feel that they're ready to give us another one.

Here's where it gets interesting - CHINA. Because of the added tension of rate increases the 'carries' are super nervous. The reason I say this is based in part on how this pair reacted to the episode with China a few weeks back. Psychologically it tells me that the crowd is 'hypersensitive' right now, with itchy trigger fingers. So, another .25% should send this pair falling fast.

What do you think? Am I missing an element or two, you are way more familiar with this pair than I am.
So actually what you meant was short GJ, not short the pound as such. And that does make much more sense. On the other hand, with the holiday in Japan, and the fact that Japan is extremely flexible when it comes to things like doing things when they say they are going to, I do not know whether the interest rate announcement will even be today. It is certainly possible, but even if there is to be a rate increase, it may not occur today.
  • #1,903
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:24pm Mar 19, 2007 1:24pm
Quoting moonchild
So actually what you meant was short GJ, not short the pound as such. And that does make much more sense. On the other hand, with the holiday in Japan, and the fact that Japan is extremely flexible when it comes to things like doing things when they say they are going to, I do not know whether the interest rate announcement will even be today. It is certainly possible, but even if there is to be a rate increase, it may not occur today.
MC,

Thanks for the added info, I had no idea they were that 'lax' in the east. Now I'm wondering about that Kamikaze trade I put on an hour ago. I think I'll let it run for a bit and see what happens. I see a needle top on the 1H and the trend from today looks mighty exhausted.
  • #1,904
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:31pm Mar 19, 2007 1:31pm
Going to try and run this gravy train down to 227.25... or what ever she'll give me.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #1,905
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:34pm Mar 19, 2007 1:34pm
Quoting mr.marketz
MC,

Thanks for the added info, I had no idea they were that 'lax' in the east. Now I'm wondering about that Kamikaze trade I put on an hour ago. I think I'll let it run for a bit and see what happens. I see a needle top on the 1H and the trend from today looks mighty exhausted.
Yes, you have a nice pinbar on the 1H chart, which is encouraging.

Do notice that even on the FF calendar the interest rate announcement is listed as tentative. Frankly, I would consider the timing of all announcements out of Japan as tentative.
  • #1,906
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:46pm Mar 19, 2007 1:46pm
Quoting moonchild
Yes, you have a nice pinbar on the 1H chart, which is encouraging.

Do notice that even on the FF calendar the interest rate announcement is listed as tentative. Frankly, I would consider the timing of all announcements out of Japan as tentative.

You know I was thinking it probably would not matter at what time the announcement was going to be made. price would just flat line and then explode at the appropriate time. Oddly enough, I never trade the news... this pair is wild and she's drawing me in. I don't think I like the sound of that. This is precisely how I've blown out accounts in the past. I better regain my composure or else I'll end up becoming one of her casualties.
  • #1,907
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:59pm Mar 19, 2007 3:59pm
Movement to the upside. Still thinking we will be seeing upward movement in the short term.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,908
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:14pm Mar 19, 2007 4:14pm
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen reached a two-week low against the euro and fell versus the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan will signal policy makers aren't in a hurry to raise interest rates.
The Japanese currency declined against all of the 16 other most active currencies as a global stock rally led investors to resume the carry trade, in which they borrow the currency to buy higher-yielding assets. The Japanese central bank will hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies, when it ends its two-day meeting tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg survey of 49 economists.
``The BOJ's hands are tied in terms of rate increases, as inflation is still low,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign exchange group in Boston at Mellon Financial Corp. ``Global risk appetite is gradually improving. The carry trade is coming back in favor. This puts renewed pressure on the yen.''







well i cant find one site of analysis who bet on a raise. of course it means nothing, i will use a tiny SL on my long tonight anyway.

I still believe that if asia stocks keep going up tonight and the rate unchanged + carry trades we will see g/j going up alot tonight. (my bet) . otherside at the first signal of a downside im read to stop and start selling, my indicators still long.
  • #1,909
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:20pm Mar 19, 2007 4:20pm
same thing about dollar rate

All 87 of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 5.25 percent when it concludes its two-day meeting on March 21. The central bank has kept the target rate unchanged for five consecutive meetings since August after 17 straight increases starting in June 2004.

anyway as i said it means nothing , just remember of that decision of GBP rate that noone was expecting also. if im not wrong only 2 of 49 (something like that) economists of bloomberg was beting on the raise that time and they raised . cnat remember the correct number but was near zero also.
anyway the forecast to JPY and USD looks very good this time.
  • #1,910
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:48pm Mar 19, 2007 4:48pm
Quoting mr.marketz
I don't normally do this, but today I'd like the opportunity to make a complete ass of myself, or come across as a fairly sharp guy. I've been working hard for a while now to do away with having any desire to predict future events. This way, when I place a trade based on something that's occurring (in real time) I feel -OK- when I'm wrong. However, if I think I see something occurring (predictive) and I place a trade... well, then I feel like sh*t when I'm wrong. But every once in a while, it's fun to imagine that one has some omniscient power. Besides, it seems like everyone on this thread is spewing predictions left and right... so I will too (just this oncehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif).

SHORT YOUR POUND!!!

We know exactly what the Japs are looking to do with their rate.... they've flat out told us a while back. It seems pretty logical to me... although I've been wrong before.

Trade at your own ri..... do I even need that disclaimer in this case?
Are you still on a short side?
  • #1,911
  • Mar 19, 2007 5:57pm Mar 19, 2007 5:57pm
Don't quote me on this, I thought I heard that tentative announcements happen around 10:00 - 11:00 p.m. Anyone?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,912
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:30pm Mar 19, 2007 6:30pm
1:00 AM EST

Quoting Sami7
Don't quote me on this, I thought I heard that tentative announcements happen around 10:00 - 11:00 p.m. Anyone?
  • #1,913
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:30pm Mar 19, 2007 6:30pm
Our trading plan worked out perfectly today, as this pair moved up 227 ticks and very near our first target area. The market gave us an opportunity again to establish longs at 225.88.

Some of you may have taken profits on the move up through 229 and that's understandable.

So what now?

If you are long, stay long and look for a final push up to 229.35 where short term longs should cover for profit. I expect range trading as we build value between River at 227.66 and Level -1 at 229.35.

Use today's River Level of 227.66 as a guage for any weakness. A close below here would be our first warning that we may trade back to lower levels. I would not set up shorts just yet though.

If we do move strongly through the 229.35 area, we will look to set up longs on a move back down to this area. Aggressive traders may want to set up longs on the first move through but I do not recommend this.


Remember to review the price distribution analysis for this pair located here in the forum to get a better view of overall value.


NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 227.66

http://www.theviewdownriver.com/pics...y3-20-2007.PNG
  • #1,914
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:33pm Mar 19, 2007 6:33pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
1:00 AM EST
Thanks
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,915
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:40pm Mar 19, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Our trading plan worked out perfectly today, as this pair moved up 227 ticks and very near our first target area. The market gave us an opportunity again to establish longs at 225.88.

Some of you may have taken profits on the move up through 229 and that's understandable.

So what now?

If you are long, stay long and look for a final push up to 229.35 where short term longs should cover for profit. I expect range trading as we build value between River at 227.66 and Level -1 at 229.35.

Use today's River Level of 227.66 as a guage for any weakness. A close below here would be our first warning that we may trade back to lower levels. I would not set up shorts just yet though.

If we do move strongly through the 229.35 area, we will look to set up longs on a move back down to this area. Aggressive traders may want to set up longs on the first move through but I do not recommend this.


Remember to review the price distribution analysis for this pair located here in the forum to get a better view of overall value.


NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 227.66

http://www.theviewdownriver.com/pics...y3-20-2007.PNG
Your system certainly is accurate. Thanks
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,916
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:13pm Mar 19, 2007 10:13pm
just another cool "analyse"

- Carry trade theme expected to make a comeback: Volatility in global markets is dropping with the positive stock market response to the Chinese rate hike over the weekend. Most analysts expect the carry theme to resume if the Bank of Japan reiterates its "gradual" approach to hiking rates after today's rate decision. Analysts point out that positioning data from Chicago's Commodity Futures trading shows that the unwinding of the yen carry trade has peaked, suggesting further yen losses.

im not a fundamental trader anyway. just help a little more to keep my long atm.
  • #1,917
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:47pm Mar 19, 2007 10:47pm
according to the calander the interest rate stayed the same.

.50%
  • #1,918
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:48pm Mar 19, 2007 10:48pm
rates unchanged 0.50%, waiting from comments in a few hours.
  • #1,919
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:52pm Mar 19, 2007 10:52pm
Can Sombody Say "freeze!!".
  • #1,920
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:53pm Mar 19, 2007 10:53pm
are we headed south yet or is the big guy going to say something to mess it all up?

any thoughts........
4 traders viewing now