Its almost a confirmed downtrend on monthly chart.
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DislikedOur next directional move in this cross will come from resolution of the 225.88/227.04 area.
In Friday's analysis, I recommended that traders establish longs on a push through River in front of 225.88. The market gave you the opportunity to establish longs.
If you are long, stay long with your risk well below 225.88. I continue to look for a move back above River at 227.04, then to 229.35/230.03 and up to 233.
A significant close below 225.88 would cancel my upside view in the short term.
Remember to review the price distribution analysis for this pair located her in the forum to get a better view of overall value.
NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 227.04
http://www.theviewdownriver.com/pics...y3-19-2007.PNGIgnored
DislikedIf we do move up from 228.50 area, then keep you eye on the 229.35 level. I would cover all longs on a push into this area.Ignored
DislikedWhat is that indicator to start with.
In my eyes we are preparing for a big down. It may extend towards 229.36 now. Or further to 231.30~ however it looks like there is nothing left. I would expect a move down tomorrow. Just hope im awake for the beginning of it.Ignored
DislikedIf we do move up from 228.50 area, then keep you eye on the 229.35 level. I would cover all longs on a push into this area.Ignored
DislikedI don't normally do this, but today I'd like the opportunity to make a complete ass of myself, or come across as a fairly sharp guy. I've been working hard for a while now to do away with having any desire to predict future events. This way, when I place a trade based on something that's occurring (in real time) I feel -OK- when I'm wrong. However, if I think I see something occurring (predictive) and I place a trade... well, then I feel like sh*t when I'm wrong. But every once in a while, it's fun to imagine that one has some omniscient power. Besides, it seems like everyone on this thread is spewing predictions left and right... so I will too (just this oncehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif).
SHORT YOUR POUND!!!
We know exactly what the Japs are looking to do with their rate.... they've flat out told us a while back. It seems pretty logical to me... although I've been wrong before.
Trade at your own ri..... do I even need that disclaimer in this case?Ignored
DislikedI don't normally do this, but today I'd like the opportunity to make a complete ass of myself, or come across as a fairly sharp guy. I've been working hard for a while now to do away with having any desire to predict future events. This way, when I place a trade based on something that's occurring (in real time) I feel -OK- when I'm wrong. However, if I think I see something occurring (predictive) and I place a trade... well, then I feel like sh*t when I'm wrong. But every once in a while, it's fun to imagine that one has some omniscient power. Besides, it seems like everyone on this thread is spewing predictions left and right... so I will too (just this oncehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif).
SHORT YOUR POUND!!!
We know exactly what the Japs are looking to do with their rate.... they've flat out told us a while back. It seems pretty logical to me... although I've been wrong before.
Trade at your own ri..... do I even need that disclaimer in this case?Ignored
DislikedI am not saying that I disagree with what you are saying, actually right now I am in limbo about this pair. I would be interested, however, in knowing what your thinking is here. Why short the pound right now? Are you thinking of just shorting GJ or of shorting cable also?
Just interested. Thank you.Ignored
DislikedKhaled,
You are making me very nervous right now. My post is not a trading recommendation. I ask you kindly to re-read it carefully. It's no different than anyone else making assessments of their market perceptions.
I feel bad when I'm reckless with my money in the market place, I would feel really, really, really bad if you were reckless with yours based on misinterpreting something I said.Ignored
DislikedMoonchild, before I get into an explanation i want to reiterate that this is all speculative... and if this were live money for me, I would be much more cautious. I just started dabbling with this pair a month ago... I'm still learning the way it breathes. having said that, we know that the BOJ has been talking rate increases (getting us warmed up). So far they gave us a little bump, and I for one feel that they're ready to give us another one.
Here's where it gets interesting - CHINA. Because of the added tension of rate increases the 'carries' are super nervous. The reason I say this is based in part on how this pair reacted to the episode with China a few weeks back. Psychologically it tells me that the crowd is 'hypersensitive' right now, with itchy trigger fingers. So, another .25% should send this pair falling fast.
What do you think? Am I missing an element or two, you are way more familiar with this pair than I am.Ignored
Dislikedsorry,
yes i know that it isn't recommendation, but i don't understand you that you think it will be go up or down?
thanksIgnored
DislikedSo, your analysis is based on the "fact" that BOJ will rise the rate by 0.25%?? Why you are that sure about that? I am not that sure at this moment
ThanksIgnored