Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

Episode 2 - Jan 12 Pair States:


Some mroe pair status:


Eur/Cad -> Short from 1.6790s, entered on 1/4/09 Above 1.6450s, LONG
Eur/Gbp -> Short from 0.9450s entered on 1/5/09 Above 0.9090s, LONG


____________________________________________________________
Trade at your own risk; these are NOT short term, hence NOT suitable for day traders

NEWS!

There was a run on the Russian Ruble today, leading to more than 6% loss in value of Ruble against the US $ in 1 day.

This has increased volatility in developing nations' currencies; potential profits trading (losses pending for):

ZAR (South African Rand), TRY (Turkish Lira), HUF (Hungarian Forint), ...

ALERT!

Gbp/Chf turning to SHORT.

Potential profits for $1000+ (trading 10K lots = 1000 pips)

GBP/CHF

Short mentioned yesterday and today is intact


Shorts from 1.65 and 1.64, target 1.55 and lower

Yep, GBP/CHF definitely going short. I sold 1 contract at 1.63842 and it has now dropped 66 pips.

The AUD/USD is my baby though. I have a truely obscene number of pips on that one. I have been opening additional contracts as I am able to shift my stop to above break even so have a heap of positions at all sorts of entries, hence why I won't know my exact pippage until I close out on Thursday (release of the Australian unemployment data)

But just wanted to say nice tip on the GBP/CHF preneur! What is it that sent it down like that and why do you think it will go down to 1.55?

Continuing...

Trending moves are propelling the long term portfolio once again; now close to $5000+ profit in a week:


Episode 2: US Close, Jan 13

Long Term:

Date..............Long T Close..............Daily PL.................PL

Jan 9 (Start).........$10K......................---------..................------
Jan 12..................$11664.................+$1664.................+$1664
Jan 13..................$13567.................+$1903.................+$3567



PS: The start balance is virtually reset at the beginning of every episode, to $10K. Trade at your own risk. The long term portfolio is NOT for trading 5 min, 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, etc. that are SHORT term

Hello FastLife,

Glad you cought the Gbp/Chf short on time

JPY appreciation, Dow breaking lower are leading to both increase in CHF, and decrease in GBP at the same time. CHF is one of the lowest interest paying currencies, while GBP is one of the highest. Also, UK economy is racing with US towards the bottom.

In addition, the upswing in GBP/CHF has come to an end, with the move below 1.65.

The last bottom/consolidation was around 1.55, hence the target.

While watching the market closely for any unexpected intervention/development, believe you're on the right side during this leg down.

SG

US Retail Sales Core MoM:

US Retail Sales (Core) prior to announcement, the trend is down, trying to reverse:

US Retail Sales Core MoM: After the news

The numbers continue to point to further deteriorating economic conditions. November US Retail Sales Core was revised to -2.5% from -1.6%, and December even came out weaker than that, at -3.1%, the worst in 18 years.

The news look to trigger further gains for JPY, CHF and USD.

Market Sentiment - Jan 15, 2009


The current sentiment for most of major currencies, as of Jan 15:

Continuing...

3rd day of wins...


Episode 2: US Close, Jan 14

Long Term:

Date..............Long T Close..............Daily PL.................PL

Jan 9 (Start).........$10K......................---------..................------
Jan 12..................$11664.................+$1664.................+$1664
Jan 13..................$13567.................+$1903.................+$3567
Jan 14..................$14314.................+$747...................+$4314



PS: The start balance is virtually reset at the beginning of every episode, to $10K. Trade at your own risk. The long term portfolio is NOT for trading 5 min, 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, etc. that are SHORT term

Updates


Usd/Cad:

We have hit the initial target of 1.24. Still holding longs, but will evaluate on daily basis a possibility of a reversal from here. Next target would be 1.27-1.30. This area provided very strong sell off, and established triple top.


Gbp/Chf:

This pair is trying to reverse, from the bearish signal given this week. Until we move back above 1.65-1.66, still bearish. Could be shorted here. Above 1.6550-1.66 will provide to be bullish, and continuation of the up trend.


Eur/Usd:

No word needed here. We're going to the base at 1.23-1.30.

Episode 2: US Close, Jan 15

Today was a very very volatile day, moving up and down both in the EU and US sessions. Portfolio value has retreated a bit:

Long Term:

Date..............Long T Close..............Daily PL.................PL

Jan 9 (Start).........$10K......................---------..................------
Jan 12..................$11664.................+$1664.................+$1664
Jan 13..................$13567.................+$1903.................+$3567
Jan 14..................$14314.................+$747...................+$4314
Jan 15..................$13059.................-$1255...................+$3059



PS: The start balance is virtually reset at the beginning of every episode, to $10K. Trade at your own risk. The long term portfolio is NOT for trading 5 min, 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, etc. that are SHORT term

Update:

JPY crosses signaling upward reversal; JPY to lose value.

Below is the current situation:

USD/JPY -> LONG
EUR/JPY -> LONG
GBP/JPY -> LONG
AUD/JPY -> SHORT
CHF/JPY -> SHORT
CAD/JPY -> SHORT
NZD.JPY -> SHORT


JPY signaling a trend reversal; might be losing value in the upcoming days. Commodities to push higher.

Episode 2: US Close, Jan 16

2nd episode ended with $1574 profit

Long Term:

Date..............Long T Close..............Daily PL.................PL

Jan 9 (Start).........$10K......................---------..................------
Jan 12..................$11664.................+$1664.................+$1664
Jan 13..................$13567.................+$1903.................+$3567
Jan 14..................$14314.................+$747...................+$4314
Jan 15..................$13059.................-$1255...................+$3059
Jan 16..................$11573.................-$1985...................+$1574


This marks the 2nd weekly gain. 3rd episode starts today, Asian open on January 18th.



PS: The start balance is virtually reset at the beginning of every episode, to $10K. Trade at your own risk. The long term portfolio is NOT for trading 5 min, 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, etc. that are SHORT term[/quote]

Jan 19 Update:

After a single day of losses for USD and JPY, they are signalling another round of gains; Eur/Usd has reversed to bearish again.

JPY crosses are on the verge of turning to bearish sentiment -> will lead to loss in commodities...

Economic Data for week of Jan 19 - 23:

Will try to cover the economic data releases, with accompanying charts

GBP - CPI YoY - Jan 20 release:

Inflation threat has been fading away all around the world, and been showing up since October in GB. The expectation is 2.6%, but the outcome could even surprise to the downside.

EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment - Jan 20 release:

The economic sentiment in the EU area is in a downtrend since June of 2007. We have seen the lows of around -63 twice, in July '08 and October '08. Expectation is that we would see increasing sentiment. I highly doubt that.

CAD BOC Overnight Rate - Jan 20 release:

BoC is expected to further decrease interest rates to 1%. No surprise expected here.