Attachments: Elliott Wave Trading

Elliott Wave Trading

#1,201
Jan 15, 2009 10:28pm Jan 15, 2009 10:28pm

Blue bottle
Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 936 Posts

Quoting lancelot41

Disliked

Hellooo traders,

I am back on this forum after a long time to see how you guys are doing, I also attached the Usd/Chf pair.

I am curretnly looking the Usd/Chf which wasn’t been able to break through 1.1300 resistance area, so the market came out with more complex wave iv correction. As you see bellow, we probably have the case of triangle structure ahead of some important releases. From technical view, we could have nice buy singal if the 1.1235 area gets broken through with targets on upside Fibo extension and projection levels. But patiently,...

Ignored

Great to see u in this thread. Thanks for posting.

#1,202
Jan 15, 2009 11:47pm Jan 15, 2009 11:47pm

Blue bottle
Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 936 Posts

hi all,

my NzdUsd 4hours chart.

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#1,203
Jan 16, 2009 5:16am Jan 16, 2009 5:16am

lancelot41
| Commercial User | Joined Jan 2008 | 68 Posts

Quoting Blue bottle

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Great to see u in this thread. Thanks for posting.

Ignored

Hey blue bottle, thank you. I aslo enjoy to seeing your wave counts as well.

I am attachnig another, the updated Usd/Chf chart.

The triangle was definitely the case yesterday when we saw a move to new weekly highs, but not for long as the prices made a turning point exactly at 1.1300 resistance area, as we recently discussed. On almost every currency pair we could notice over-bought dollar in some important Fibo levels. Gold also bounced from $800 area, and still didn’t been able to break through the trend line support. Oil is currently also trading around $3 above the lows, while the European equities are 2% higher after the gains in the Asia trade. So, all these is definitely dollar negative which means we should be looking to sell dollars in today’s session as long the things will stay as they are right now. Well, the Usd/Chf chart below is signaling for the dollar corrective mode which means we may see CHF buyers in today’s session who will try to push the Usd/Chf pair down to 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1. Elliott wave traders could be looking for red wave c move, which will probably be confirmed once the lows of red wave a and the trend line will be taken out.

grega

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#1,204
Jan 16, 2009 12:54pm Jan 16, 2009 12:54pm

j-pax
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 525 Posts

hello EWcounters,

i am so new to elliott wave, just reading other people's charts is hard.
i follow this thread daily, to see if i can make sense of different counts.

i've read Frost and Prechters book. after this i did not put any labels on charts.

i hoped the Glenn Neely book would provide some practical guidence.... there is so much guidence from Neely... too much for me

yesterday the Robert C. Miner book disscused here arrived and today i counted my first piece of chart.

this is it. if i am way off please let me know. i hope to post some decent charts in the near future

greets, jacco

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even with my eyes open i cannot see everything

#1,205
Jan 16, 2009 2:27pm Jan 16, 2009 2:27pm

lancelot41
| Commercial User | Joined Jan 2008 | 68 Posts

Quoting j-pax

Disliked

hello EWcounters,

i am so new to elliott wave, just reading other people's charts is hard.
i follow this thread daily, to see if i can make sense of different counts.

i've read Frost and Prechters book. after this i did not put any labels on charts.

i hoped the Glenn Neely book would provide some practical guidence.... there is so much guidence from Neely... too much for me

yesterday the Robert C. Miner book disscused here arrived and today i counted my first piece of chart.

this is it. if i am way off please let me know. i hope to post...

Ignored

Hey j-pax, wellcome here....

to be honest your charts its perfect, really good one!!!

And what your charts tells you?
that the five wave move is probably completed and this means only once; that at least three wave move of the correction should follow. And you already labelled your first wave of the retrace (blue wave a in your case) correctly, so, now we should be looking for a wave b pullback and then higher c, which would confirm simple zigzag correction move.

Good job;

Grega H.

#1,206
Jan 16, 2009 4:03pm Jan 16, 2009 4:03pm

marketwavez
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 847 Posts

Quoting marketwavez

Disliked

Us Dollar

Usd/Chf
----------------------------
Double Bottom Formation ?
----------------------------

http://i43.tinypic.com/20ft01t.gif

Ignored

Us Dollar

ok ,

It's been a week

- Here's where we are now ! ................

---------------------------------------------------------------------
http://i44.tinypic.com/fwlu1z.jpg

#1,207
Jan 16, 2009 8:02pm Jan 16, 2009 8:02pm

SunTrader
Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts

[quote=marketwavez;2475035]
Us Dollar

ok ,

It's been a week

- Here's where we are now ! ................

[/unquote]

mw,

A little smaller of the chart pic size please. Scrolling back and forth sucks.

Anyway USDCHF is not a market I watch regularly but your Wave 4 ABC looks like the Wave C is not really a 5 wave.

#1,208
Jan 17, 2009 2:07am Jan 17, 2009 2:07am

arthurb
| Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Austrian school | 501 Posts

i see this usd/chf a little differently

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#1,209
Jan 17, 2009 4:09am Jan 17, 2009 4:09am

aaronlee1979
| Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 17 Posts

Wave 4 almost complete. Wave 5 to target 1.2850

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#1,210
Jan 18, 2009 5:05am Jan 18, 2009 5:05am

j-pax
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 525 Posts

thanks for the kind words lancelot.

a question: is it common for pairs with different base currencies to correct or trend at the same time?
my usdjpy and eurusd charts turned from 5 to A almost at the same time.

i am curious if this has some meaning or is just chance.

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even with my eyes open i cannot see everything

#1,211
Jan 18, 2009 5:10am Jan 18, 2009 5:10am

Slight
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trenfollowing | 436 Posts

This does happen and gives you a rough orientation of what the counterpart-pair might be doing. I would be more than extremely cautious to put on trades using this thinking. If you look at the price bars closer you will see that the rough direction is the same, but one might make a new high while the other one doesnt make a new low and turns around already... EURUSD - USDCHF are pairs that seem to go the opposite way, on the hourly chart e.g. you can notice this... (momentum is also different) waves are also not the same, e.g. eurusd might be in a 3 up, doesnt mean usdchf is in a c down.

The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.

#1,212
Jan 18, 2009 5:44am Jan 18, 2009 5:44am

j-pax
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 525 Posts

Quoting Slight

Disliked

This does happen and gives you a rough orientation of what the counterpart-pair might be doing. I would be more than extremely cautious to put on trades using this thinking. If you look at the price bars closer you will see that the rough direction is the same, but one might make a new high while the other one doesnt make a new low and turns around already... EURUSD - USDCHF are pairs that seem to go the opposite way, on the hourly chart e.g. you can notice this... (momentum is also different) waves are also not the same, e.g. eurusd might be in...

Ignored

thanks Slight for thinking with me,

i checked out daily momentum and both pairs turned up in oversold area.

i guess what i see means that these are no dollar moves because this should produce movement in opposite directions.
it's euro weakness and yen strenght against the dollar.

i cannot explain why de two pairs turned at the same time. i now think chance

even with my eyes open i cannot see everything

#1,213
Jan 18, 2009 5:52am Jan 18, 2009 5:52am

Slight
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trenfollowing | 436 Posts

well yes. sometimes it's by chance, sometimes not. the most important thing is only that you dont trade assuming that they counter-trend .. keep on counting the waves and don't get yourself confused by this counter-relation they seem to have...

The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.

#1,214
Edited 9:23am Jan 18, 2009 8:14am | Edited 9:23am

pipeye
| Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Trader | 176 Posts

Quoting j-pax

Disliked

thanks Slight for thinking with me,

i checked out daily momentum and both pairs turned up in oversold area.

i guess what i see means that these are no dollar moves because this should produce movement in opposite directions.
it's euro weakness and yen strength against the dollar.

i cannot explain why de two pairs turned at the same time. i now think chance

Ignored

Risk plays a big part in that type of relationship. If risk aversion is muted for a period of time, you may see some strengthening of the higher yielding currencies (euro, pound, aussie, kiwi etc) and some weakening a lower yielding currency such as the yen. While it is fair to note that the USD could be considered a low yielding currency, the Yen has been used traditionally to fund these type of carry relationships, as people sell yen in order to buy a higher yielding currency, looking for a return on the interest rate differential.

Much of the strengthening of the USD and Yen over the past year has been a result of high levels of risk in the market. In this case, people liquidate these carry trades by buying back Yen and selling the cross pair. This is an environment where "Return of Capital" is more important than "Return on Capital", so people seek the safety of US treasuries, therfore driving up the demand for USD as well.

#1,215
Jan 18, 2009 8:55am Jan 18, 2009 8:55am

j-pax
| Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 525 Posts

Quoting pipeye

Disliked

Risk plays a big part in that type of relationship. If risk aversion is muted for a period of time, you may see some strengthening of the higher yielding currencies (euro, pound, aussie, kiwi etc) and some weakening a lower yielding currency such as the yen. While it is fair to note that the USD could be considered a low yielding currency, the Yen has been used traditionally to fund these type of carry relationships, as people sell yen in order to buy a higher yielding currency, looking for a return on the interest rate differential.

Much of the...

Ignored

thank you, this does make sense of the to pairs behaving alike for this moment.

you are right slight:
"keep on counting the waves and don't get yourself confused by this counter-relation they seem to have..."

i will, jacco

even with my eyes open i cannot see everything